The Matterboard is our weekly assessment of what’s worth your attention and what isn’t. Here’s last week’s edition, here’s an overview of the project, and here’s the full archive.
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Here’s what’s new on The Matterboard:
PAY ATTENTION ⚠️
Iran simmers. President Trump mentioned Iran at least 20 times on social media during the last week—yet nothing has changed. Brent crude remains close to $100 per barrel, with gas and diesel prices far higher than they were when Trump took office. The war that Trump said would last a few weeks is now in its eighth month.
Blue wave odds remain high. The Kalshi odds of a Democratic sweep in the November midterm elections remain around 62%. The respected Cook Political Report recently shifted its forecasts for 15 House races toward Democrats, which would give them control of the House. Democrat Sherrod Brown now looks like he could win a Republican-controlled Senate seat in Ohio.
[5 things to expect if Democrats win in November]
Research firm Veda Partners predicts that Brown will win in Ohio, but that Republicans will hold onto tightly contested Senate seats in Alaska, Texas, Maine, Iowa and Kansas. That would leave the GOP with 51 seats and Senate control. If Dems win Ohio plus two other states and don’t lose Michigan, they’ll take the Senate.
We reiterate that midterm polling is sketchy and often wrong.
MIGHT GET SPICY 🤔
Terrorism threats seem intense. The pilot who nearly hijacked a FlyDubai passenger jet heading from Dubai to Tel Aviv on Sept. 30 might have flown it into an Israeli building or population center if he had succeeded—like a mini 9-11 attack. Remarkable action by the second pilot and some of the passengers prevented a major catastrophe and the death of more than 170 aboard the plane.
There was a weird event in the UK on Sept. 27 in which five men were arrested near a British air base that hosts US jets—then released. Prime Minister Andy Burnham says Iran might have been involved in … whatever was going on, which is still not publicly known. The obvious implication is that somebody affiliated with Iran was trying to harm US troops or sabotage US planes or other equipment. Why the UK released the suspects, then said they might be linked with Iran, is a puzzle.
Recall that there may have been an Iranian effort to shoot down Air Force One with Trump aboard when he was in Turkey in July. Iran is a well-known sponsor of terrorism and is almost certainly looking for ways to attack Americans or American interests. If one such attack succeeds, it won’t be a one-time event. It will trigger US retaliation and second- and third-order effects that are hard to predict.
[I placed a bet on falling oil prices]
Jerome Powell wins another round. The former Federal Reserve chair did nothing wrong in association with the renovation of Fed headquarters, according to the central bank’s inspector general. Nobody thought Powell did anything wrong—except Trump, who was looking for ways to force Powell out of the job before his tenure ended in May. The vindication of Powell is a win for Fed independence and for markets.
Maybe reputable auditors should investigate Trump’s handling of the Kennedy Center, the White House ballroom, the reflecting pool, and other DC landmarks and see if Trump abides by the same standards as Powell.
Interest rates under Trump have hit the highest levels in more than 20 years. The benchmark 10-year Treasury rate is at 5.29%, the highest since 2002. The average rate on a 30-year mortgage is now 7.3%, up 1.3 percentage points since the Iran war started in February. That adds $175 to the monthly payment on a $400,000 mortgage, or an extra $2,000 per year.
[How to make money on rising interest rates]
Trump might invoke the Insurrection Act to cheat in the midterms. In an interview with Time, Trump said, “I could use it. A lot of people think I should use it.” There is no insurrection and there won’t be one on Election Day. And the only people who think Trump should invoke the 1807 law are the dictator-class mandarins who shine Trump’s shoes. Trump might just be trolling his many critics, but voters should be prepared for just about anything come November.
RESULTS MAY VARY 🤷♂️
The impeachment of Pete Hegseth won’t come until at least November, when the midterms are over. But he keeps providing fresh material for inquisitors. In a “state of the force” speech, the incompetent defense secretary said his department will create an “office of religious affairs” that will “report straight to the top.” Report on what? Compliance with some religious code? As a reminder, Hegseth is running a war AGAINST A THEOCRACY. And running it incredibly badly.
Hegseth also said Elon Musk will help run a new project on the future of warfare. Is there anybody in America who really wants more Elon Musk? Anybody?
AI firms will self-police as the best way to assure their groundbreaking new technology doesn’t destroy humanity. That’s the pledge the leaders of AI firms such as Meta, OpenAI, Anthropic, Nvidia made at a meeting with Trump on September 29. Feel better? Neither does anybody else.
SAFELY IGNORE 🚫
The United States got two new pandas from China. These are the “envoys of friendship” Chinese dictator Xi Jinping promised to deliver when he met with Trump last week. The pandas will reside at the Atlanta Zoo. More pandas are better than fewer. But they won’t stop China from stealing western technology, menacing Taiwan, or making all the other types of trouble it has become adept at.
Trump’s ban on some Canadian imports went into effect September 29. The blacklist includes certain types of alcohol, motorcycles and dairy products. You probably won’t notice, but thousands of dumb trivialities add up to one dumb monstrosity of a trade war.
[The Weekly WTF: America’s worst TV channel]
JB Pritzker lost 80 pounds, and it might be a political issue. The Democratic governor of Illinois is likely to run for president in 2028, and political analysts are debating whether his dramatic weight loss from the use of GLP-1 drugs is an asset or liability, candidate-wise. Pro: Using GLP-1s to control a lifelong weight problem linked with diabetes makes Pritzker relatable. Con: It seems like he’s sculpting a phony image.
We’re bullish on the dramatic improvement GLP-1s can bring to the health and lifestyle of millions. We’re agnostic on whether presidential candidates should use them to improve their electability. As for Pritzker, he’s the billionaire scion of the Hyatt hotel family, and we feel like there are enough billionaires running things. We’d prefer a qualified bootstrapper, no matter how much he or she might weigh.
Enjoy a cartoon.
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