Democrats are getting their hopes up. President Trump’s woes keep mounting, with gas prices back near $4.50 per gallon, diesel at record highs, and inflation once again a top voter frustration. That could trigger a “blue wave” midterm election in November in which Democrats retake control of one or both houses of Congress.
Odds of a Democratic sweep are surging. Prediction-market Kalshi says there’s a 61% chance of Democrats winning both the House and Senate. That’s the highest it’s been this year, by far. The next most likely outcome is a Democratic House and Republican Senate, at 30%. Markets think the odds of Republicans holding both houses are less than 10%.
If Democrats do take both houses, it will be a thrilling rebuke to Trump for party stalwarts. But the fun might end there. The odds of Democrats winning a filibuster-proof Senate margin of 60 seats are basically nil, which means Democrats would still need some Republican votes in the Senate to pass partisan legislation.
Even then, Trump could veto any legislation he doesn’t like. It takes two-thirds of both the House and the Senate to override a veto, which means it won’t happen barring dire circumstances. Democratic priorities include more affordable health care, food, child care, and housing, plus higher taxes on the wealthy and more green-energy development. Meaningful action will mostly be out of reach.
But there’s still a lot at stake. If you’re wondering how much your midterm vote might matter, here are 5 things to watch for if Democrats win in November.
More aggressive oversight. Party leaders control the congressional agenda, and if Democrats take charge, they’re certain to mount investigations of possible corruption by Trump and his family, the Epstein files, the DOGE cuts, the conduct of the Iran war, the Kennedy Center fiasco, and many other things. Congress has subpoena power and its investigations can uncover a lot.