The Matterboard is our weekly assessment of what’s worth your attention and what isn’t. Here’s last week’s edition, here’s an overview of the project, and here’s the full archive.
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Here’s what’s new on The Matterboard:
PAY ATTENTION ⚠️
Iran war, ad infinitum. President Trump and the Iranian President, Masoud Pezeshkian, each gave windy speeches at the United Nations this week. Nothing changed. Everybody in America wants the Iran war to end, which is probably why Iran wants to keep it going. The war is so unpopular that House Speaker Mike Johnson—a top Trump ally—is now calling for an end to it. That’s meaningless, except it reveals that Republicans know Trump’s war is politically toxic to their party. Too bad. The Iran war is a disaster and Trump’s party deserves whatever drubbing it gets in November.
The likelihood of a blue wave in November is soaring. Prediction market Kalshi puts the odds of a Democratic midterm sweep—in which they win control of both the House and Senate—at more than 60%. The odds of Dems winning at least one chamber of Congress, allowing them to block the GOP legislative agenda, are 92%.
[5 things to expect if Democrats win in November]
These odds seem high. Midterm polling is notoriously unreliable and several improbable things would have to occur for Dems to win the Senate. Still, it’s undeniable that Trump has almost single-handedly reignited inflation and made many millions of voters worse off. Something momentous should happen in November.
Record-high diesel prices above $6.50 per gallon have led to the possibility of Trump banning the export of diesel fuel, on the premise that it would create more US supply and bring prices down. That could happen for a short time. But then it would probably backfire.
[Why voters are down on the Trump economy]
US refiners produce more diesel than Americans consume, mostly along the Gulf Coast. If they end up with more diesel than they can sell, they’ll cut capacity or devote it to something else, which would lower supply and put upward pressure on prices all over again. And if the US bans diesel exports, other countries might stop sending diesel (and winter heating fuel) to the northeastern United States and other parts of the country far from the Gulf Coast, which get energy cheaper from foreign suppliers than from Gulf Coast refineries. So you might end up with lower diesel prices near the Gulf Coast refineries and all sorts of problems everywhere else. (Here’s a good explainer.) A better idea than banning diesel exports: End the Iran war!
MIGHT GET SPICY 🤔
The American gestapo known as ICE immigration agents shot an unarmed DoorDash driver in the back in Austin, Texas on Sept. 22. The man was in his car when the ICE agent fired. The ICE shooter was issued a body camera but wasn’t wearing it. Another ICE officer was wearing a body camera but it didn’t capture the shooting. So as usual, subprofessional standards and no accountability for ICE. The victim may be an undocumented migrant ultimately deported by a judge. But shooting him is a human rights abuse. On the same day, ICE agents beat up a US citizen in suburban Chicago after confusing him with somebody they were seeking to arrest. After realizing their mistake, they left him on the ground for local police to tend to. He sustained injuries, went to the hospital, and will probably sue this rogue agency. ICE is a public menace. If we had anybody competent in charge, they’d gut the whole place and start from scratch under the tightest possible supervision.
Donald Trump Jr. must be hard up for money, because a Russian oligarch who’s a buddy of Russian dictator Vladimir Putin paid for part of his lavish wedding in the Bahamas in May. Now, several Republican members of Congress (along with every Democrat) want to investigate Don Jr.’s Russian ties. Sounds right. Congress exhaustively investigated Hunter Biden’s sweetheart deals in Ukraine. Don Jr.’s Russian connections are more ominous. Bring it.
Democrats filed a lawsuit meant to prevent Trump and his federal agents from interfering in the midterm elections, as Trump and other administration officials have suggested they might. The suit seeks court orders that would explicitly prohibit federal officials from monitoring voters, wearing tactical gear, brandishing weapons, peddling bullshit, or doing anything else that might intimidate voters near polling zones or ballot drop boxes up to or during Election Day on November 3.
Interest rates are spiking, with mortgages now averaging 7.25%, the highest level since 2023. The 2023 surge turned out to be a blip that lasted about four months, before rates fell below 7% again. That might not happen this time. Rates are rising because inflation has reignited, borrowers are starting to worry about the gigantic national debt, and a lot of corporate debt is now hitting the market to fund the AI buildout. If rates go much higher, it could ding stocks and maybe hurt the economy.
[How to profit from rising interest rates]
The punkish Pete Hegseth may face an impeachment effort in Congress once the November midterms wrap up. Some Republicans want to go after the Defense Secretary for his role as Trump’s Iran war enabler and all sorts of other turmoil he’s causing in the military. We called for Hegseth’s ouster all the way back in April. He’s profoundly unqualified for one of the most important jobs in government and capable of doing way more harm to the country than an incompetent Labor or Interior secretary.
[What the bond market wants you to know]
RESULTS MAY VARY 🤷♂️
Facebook parent Meta may have a hit. The company’s Muse AI app is the No. 1 download on Apple’s app store and it’s getting solid reviews for actually being useful. Muse is designed to do tasks for you, such as shop online. So instead of making suggestions, it goes the distance and handles purchases. Here’s one sign of its possible success: Amazon hates it, because if humans aren’t looking at Amazon, then Amazon is going to have a hard time selling ads and sponsored positions. Slate has this interesting review of Muse. (Has anybody tried it? Let me know what you think!)
SAFELY IGNORE 🚫
Trump hates the press because he can’t stand criticism, so he tried to ban CNN, MS Now and Politico from briefings and other activities at the White House. A judge said no, and after it looked like Trump might defy the order, the White House backed down and allowed access to the news agencies once again. The best part of this showdown is the solidarity other networks showed—including Fox News, which sometimes functions as a Trump PR organ—by refusing to participate in White House pool feeds. That left Trump without a microphone when he tried to give public remarks at the White House helipad on September 22. His lips moved, but nobody watching the White House’s own feed could hear what he said. We think this would make a great permanent arrangement.
Fresh measles cases in Pennsylvania bring the state’s 2026 tally to more than 800, including four deaths. Almost all cases involve unvaccinated people. Trump’s goofy Health Secretary, Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., has said those measles deaths may be fabricated, and the federal Centers for Disease Control won’t acknowledge them, either. When people are dying and you pretend it isn’t happening, you’ve gone mad.
The fancy meeting between Trump and China’s president-for-life, Xi Jinping, isn’t likely to produce any meaningful developments on trade, the pace of AI development, or the Iran war. But it did generate one thing: opprobrium among China hawks, including some Republicans, who thought Trump’s pampering of Xi was reprehensible, given that Xi’s government steals American business and military secrets and hopes to displace American influence in many parts of the world.
[How Trump softened up on China]
Trump signed a deal with Greenland that will prevent competing nations—including China!—from setting up shop on the strategically located island and allow greater use by the US military. That’s good. Why didn’t Trump just do that in the first place, without the needless drama of threatening to invade or annex Greenland?
The “triumphal arch” Trump wants to build near Washington, DC, will double as a storage silo for drones and ammo and serve as a perch for snipers, according to Trump. It’s a brilliant idea that might speed construction of the arch, since military installations bypass some zoning requirements. Alas, as a military project, the cost of the arch will promptly balloon to $40 billion, with subcontractors in every state and probably a taste for the Trump children, who are now defense contractors. Congressional audits will ensue, while cost overruns will generate lawsuits over who’s responsible for the delays. The whole project might not be finished until long after Trump leaves office.
Wouldn’t that be a shame.
Enjoy a cartoon.
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When we have out T.V. on and, the Republican Party T.V. ad's are being shown we just cut the volume off and do not turn it back on until their over.It is just junk and, more lies.I do not care how much money they have but, i no when i have been lied to and, there probably are not more than four or five Republican's that i would vote for in this election.The real people that i want vote for are Gov. ABBOT of Texas who sold his integrity to Trump and,now has become a puppet for him.
All "good" items this week, although also angst-inducing.
Karma is a 'beach' (substitute your own near-homophone there if you'd like) ... nice to see Republicans turning into panic-ans after all the havoc and destruction caused to our country either by their own volition (mostly the Executive branch but also Congress via OBBBA) or by malign neglect (mostly Congress) in the last 20 months.
The new blatantly pro-Trump ad PAID FOR BY THE US Gov't that's pretending to extol our country's values and current state less than 6 weeks before the midterms is gaslighting and dishonesty at its finest. I'm guessing this will make your cut for the coming week.