Trump sees an A+++++ economy. Millions of Americans see C-

Here are 5 big problems with the economy that Trump is missing.

President Trump told an interviewer on December 9 that he grades the economy under his watch an “A-plus-plus-plus-plus-plus.” Then, at a rally in Pennsylvania, he repeated his claim that “affordability” is a “hoax.”

Sure, Trump exaggerates. His supporters have a high tolerance for outrageous statements because it’s the genuine Trump.

But Trump is badly miscalculating the financial stress his own supporters, and millions of others, are facing. Dismal consumer confidence levels suggest Americans overall grade the economy a C or even a D. It’s not just a vibecession. Reams of data substantiate Americans’ gloomy mood. Here are five things going wrong in the Trump economy, which Trump doesn’t seem to get.

Low gas prices are an outlier. Trump talks up low gasoline prices as if this is the only thing anybody needs to get by. He’s right that the average price recently dipped below $3 per gallon. That’s about 6 cents cheaper than it was a year ago. Okay, nice, but gas only accounts for 3.2% of the typical family’s spending. Household utilities account for 6% of spending, and the cost of electricity and heat is rising by about 6% per year, which more than offsets any savings from pump prices.

Most things people spend money on—housing, health care, cars, food—is getting more expensive. Gasoline, in fact, is one of the few things getting cheaper. Consumers count their pennies and Trump can’t snow them by highlighting one thing that’s a bargain while ignoring everything that feels like a ripoff.

Real incomes are flatlining. Real income, adjusted for inflation, was growing at a solid 1.8% per year when Trump took office in January. By May that had improved to 3.9%, a level that, if sustained, would make a lot of people feel like they’re getting ahead. But real income growth has since dropped to just 0.2%, which means incomes are barely staying ahead of inflation. For workers under 54, real income is declining slightly. Only older workers are staying ahead of inflation, now.

[More: Here’s the other affordability problem]

What changed? The inflation rate was falling when Trump took office, and got as low as 2.3% in April. But it has since shot up to 3%. At the same time, the job market has been weakening, with income growth slowing. These percentage changes might seem small, but families on a budget notice when their purchasing power shrinks, even by a little.

The job market is flagging. Employers created 168,000 new jobs on average in 2024. The pace of job growth during the past four months is just 44,000 new jobs per month, and the economy lost jobs during two of those months. The unemployment rate isn’t soaring, but workers know when employers are tightening up and it makes them nervous. It should.

The Trump tariffs have raised costs and wrecked confidence. That increase in the inflation rate from 2.3% in April to 3% now coincides with the rollout of Trump’s tariffs, which have raised the average tax on imports from 2.5% to about 17%. Over the course of a year, that equates to $1,700 in added cost and lost income for every US household. Trump’s tariffs are having the exact effect on household finances that economists said they would.

[More: The Trump economy is subpar]

The tariffs have also sent inflation expectations soaring. When Trump won the presidential election last November, the average outlook for inflation in one year was a fairly tame 2.4%. By May, when Trump was rolling out double-barrel tariffs, that had shot up to 6.6%. That was way higher than the inflation expectation in 2022, when actual inflation was a punishing 9%. The one-year inflation expectation is now down to 4.6%, which is better than 6.6% but still way above the historical average.

People understand that tariffs raise prices, and when they see prices rising now, they blame Trump’s tariffs. One lesson of the Biden presidency is that inflation and worries about inflation put voters in a vengeful mood. Trump never learned that lesson.

The momentum of the economy has slowed. The Pinpoint Press Better-off-Barometer shows that since Trump took office, the economy is performing worse than it was during the same time frame in 2024 in five out of six key economy categories: overall employment, manufacturing employment, stock values, income, and inflation. Only GDP growth is better than it was one year ago.

[More: The data says you’re falling behind]

This doesn’t mean the economy is going backwards; it means the aggregate economy was making more progress last year than this year. By extension, that means more people are falling behind this year than last.

As a presidential candidate, Trump had an uncanny knack for tapping into what bothered voters and weighed them down. As an incumbent, he seems to have lost that touch. Grade inflation doesn’t pay the bills.