Feeling worse off? The data says you’re right
Our Better-Off Barometer is approaching the red zone. Hers's why.
President Trump’s approval rating has sunk to the lowest level of his second presidential term. Consumer confidence is dismal.
It’s not a vibecession. Things really are going in the wrong direction.
The Pinpoint Press Better-Off Barometer shows that momentum in the economy worsened in the latest monthly data, based on changes in jobs, income, inflation, stock values and GDP. We track changes in six economic categories compared with the same period one year ago, using data provided by Moody’s Analytics. In five of those six categories, the trend is weaker than it was during the last year of the Biden administration.
The Trump economy is unperforming on inflation, stocks values, income, employment growth, and manufacturing employment growth. The only area where it’s outperforming is GDP growth. The following charts tell the story.
Our data measures changes in those six categories since Trump took office, compared with the change in 2024 during the same period of time. These are not measurements of absolute levels, since it would be natural for employment or stock values to rise consistently over time. By measuring change, we focus on momentum and whether economic conditions are strengthening or weakening.
This is how many ordinary Americans think about whether they’re getting ahead or falling behind. And by that standard, many people who feel like they’re worse off than they were a year ago are right.
In 2024, overall employment rose by about 0.7% from February through September. That has slowed to job growth of just 0.3% in 2025.
Manufacturing employment dipped by 0.4% during that same period in 2024. It has dipped by 0.45% in 2025, a slightly worse showing.
Prices rose by about 1.2% from February through September of 2024. This year, prices rose by 1.4% during the same time frame. (In the charts above, we invert inflation so a higher number is better, as in all the other charts.)
Income growth was 1.2% from February through September of 2024, but only about half that through September of 2025.
Stocks rose 16.7% through mid-November in 2024, compared with 10.9% this year. Since we use the latest data available in every category, that includes stock prices through November 21.
Only GDP growth is doing better this year. In 2024, GDP per capita grew by 0.5% from the first quarter to second. This year, growth was 0.8% during the same period.
The weakening trends in 2025 don’t mean the economy is headed toward recession. Employment and the overall economy are still growing. Stock values are still up for the year. In the charts, a recessionary trend would show most of the lines below 100, which is the indexed starting point marking the beginning of Trump’s second term.
But the Better-Off Barometer clearly shows where a slowing economy presents danger for Trump. A big reason Trump won the 2024 presidential election against the incumbent Democratic vice president Kamala Harris is voters soured on the Biden economy. Inflation was the Democrats’ undoing. By 2024, inflation had fallen sharply from the 9% peak it hit in 2022, but three years of high prices still left consumers feeling burned.
Inflation, which helped Trump win in 2024, is now working against him. The inflationary trend in 2025 is stronger than it was in 2024, with the overall inflation rate inching upward from 2.3% in April to 3% now. Trump’s tariffs are an import tax that adds to costs, and many shoppers now blame Trump for budgetary pressures.
Voters gave Trump strong marks on his handling of the economy in 2024, but that edge has evaporated. Trump’s approval rating on the economy has dropped from 48% in January to 38% now. His approval on inflation is a dismal 31%, with the gap between those who approve and those who disapprove a huge 35%. If voters felt that way toward Trump in 2024, he probably would have lost.
Trump can correctly argue that the economy is growing and certain statistics look pretty good. But voters expect the president to make them better off, and a year after Trump won, it’s going in the wrong direction.