Trump v. Trump: Why the first Trump economy was better

Our latest ranking of the Trump economy shows why voters feel duped.

President Trump is constantly comparing himself with former presidents Joe Biden and Barack Obama—and convincing himself he’s better. But what if he compared his second presidential term with his own first term?

It wouldn’t look so good. Not economically, anyway.

The Trump economy in 2026 looks substantially weaker than the economy did at the same point in Trump’s first term, in June of 2018. Employment and income growth have been lower during the first 18 months of Trump 2.0 than during the same span in Trump 1.0. GDP growth is lower. Inflation is worse. The only thing that’s substantially better is the overall gain in the stock market since Trump took office.

We track this data as part of our Trumponomics project, which includes data provided by Moody’s Analytics going back to Jimmy Carter’s term in the 1970s. We follow monthly or quarterly numbers on employment, manufacturing employment, incomes, inflation, GDP growth, and stock values, allowing us to measure each of the last 13 presidents against one another at the same point in each term. The full methodology is here, and you can see an interactive version of the data at graphic artist David Foster’s web site.

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The data allows us to rank presidents based on the performance of the economy during their terms. The current Trump economy ranks 4th out of the last 7 presidents, which includes all who have held office in the 21st century. In a ranking of the last 13 presidents, going back to Jimmy Carter, Trump ranks 8th out of 13. (For simplicity, we’re only showing data on the last 7 presidents here.)

The Biden economy was slightly better than the current Trump economy at the 18-month point. Biden did better in three categories: growth in employment, manufacturing jobs and GDP. Trump has done better in income growth, stock-market performance and inflation. The statistical edge goes to Biden. But it’s worth noting that 18 months into Biden’s term, in June of 2022, inflation was soaring and voters were rapidly souring on Biden’s economic leadership.

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The president before that, of course, was Donald Trump. And the performance of the Trump economy during the three years leading up to the 2020 Covid pandemic may explain why voters gave Trump high marks on the economy when he was running for president again in 2024.

The Trump 1.0 economy ranks 2nd out of the last 7 presidential terms at the 18-month point, mainly because most things were going right. Growth in employment, incomes and GDP was solid. Inflation was modest and a surge of energy production caused by the fracking revolution kept gasoline prices low.

When Trump took office in 2017, he inherited an economy in the midst of a slow but sustained recovery from the Great Recession, which ended in 2009. By the latter half of the 2010s, the economy was back on its feet and many Americans felt like they were getting ahead.

Trump dabbled with tariffs during his first term, but they didn’t arrive until his second year in office, with the heaviest tariffs coming during his third year. Even then, they were pretty mild. The average tax on imports rose from about 1.5% to 2.8% during the entire term. That wasn’t high enough to do much economic damage.

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Trump went much further, much faster, during his second presidential term. By April of 2025—his third month in office—Trump announced tariffs that pushed the average import tax to nearly 28%. Legal challenges and Trump’s own backpedaling have brought the average tariff rate down to about 9% now. But that’s still the highest average tariff in at least 50 years, and it helps explain a weaker economy.

The Iran war Trump launched on February 28 has been another stiff headwind for the economy, forcing businesses and consumers to grapple with soaring energy costs and much more uncertainty than usual. Energy costs are receding amid a shaky ceasefire, but a new risk premium in oil prices could keep energy prices higher than necessary indefinitely. Tariffs and the energy shock are probably holding back hiring and investing in much of the economy, as CEOs wait to see how disruptive Trump’s policies will be.

Trump defenders argue that there’s no recession in sight, so Trump’s rambunctious governing style hasn’t caused any harm. But that’s not quite right. The artificial-intelligence boom is providing an unusual boost to the economy, and that’s masking a lot of weakness elsewhere. Economist David Rosenberg of Rosenberg Research points out that tech, health care and financial services are the only sectors of the economy growing. The rest of the economy is shrinking.

Voters elected Trump to a second term in 2024 largely because they thought he’d do a better job managing the economy and especially getting prices down. That may have been because they remembered Trump’s first term as a pretty good time, setting aside the Covid pandemic.

Trump’s standing on the economy has collapsed, as his tariffs and Iran war sent prices up, not down. Many Americans see recession in their midst and think the country has gone far off track. Biden never recovered when inflation sent his approval rating into the basement, and Trump probably faces the same fate.

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Cartoon by Tom Toro

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