The Matterboard is our weekly assessment of what’s worth your attention and what isn’t. Here’s last week’s edition, here’s an overview of the project, and here’s the full archive.
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Here’s what’s new on The Matterboard:
PAY ATTENTION ⚠️
President Trump said he won’t attack Iran before the midterm elections on November 3. He’s trying to talk down oil prices, which remain above $100 per barrel. There’s a new factor keeping oil prices high. More oil is getting through the Strait of Hormuz, as we reported in mid-September. But the cost of shipping has become exorbitant, because Iran continues to attack tankers. The cost of a tanker sailing from the Persian Gulf to Asia has skyrocketed from $30,000 before the war to around $1.3 million now, according to one report. That adds $33 per barrel to the cost of Gulf oil. Will anything change after the midterms? Here’s our best guess.
Blue-wave odds continue to climb. Kalshi odds of a Democratic sweep of Congress are now 61%, up slightly from a week ago. The Cook Political Report recently shifted its forecast for three Senate races in the Democrats’ direction. It now rates the Senate race in Trump-friendly Kansas a tossup. The New Hampshire Senate race now leans Democratic, with North Carolina a likely Democratic pickup, according to Cook. Overall, they think Dems will gain 2 to 6 additional Senate seats. Dems need 4 to take control. That counts as a tossup.
Trump is up to some kind of self-dealing in Russia, where his envoys Jared Kushner and Steven Witkoff are trying to negotiate an oil deal that supposedly has some kind of connection to a Ukraine war peace agreement. Billionaire Trump megadonor Todd Boehly would get ownership of some Russian oil assets, as would some Middle East investors. Presumably Trump will offer every American involved in this sham deal preemptive pardons so they can’t be prosecuted for whatever crimes they are in the process of committing.
MIGHT GET SPICY 🤔
Soaring interest rates are beginning to destabilize some corners of the financial markets. France is having a particular problem, with investors beginning to doubt it will be able to pay all its debts. This could foreshadow what America faces in two or three years.
Stocks hit record highs on October 6, then dropped back, then approached record territory again. It’s unusual for stocks to do so well while interest rates are climbing as rapidly as they are.
[Only stock owners are better off under Trump]
Iranian terrorism threats compelled the Pentagon to fly 12 B-1 bombers back to the United States from the British base they’ve been operating from. Crews returned as well. The Iranians are adept at terrorism and there’s a nontrivial chance they will succeed at hitting some kind of American target somewhere in the world in coming months. This could get ugly.
The US trade deficit hit the highest level since March 2025. You might wonder how that could happen, since Trump says his tariffs are explicitly designed to reduce the trade deficit. Well, Trump doesn’t know what he’s talking about. Many economists said this would happen and they were right.
The plague got loose in Russia. A 28-year-old woman working at an anti-plague laboratory in Siberia died recently, with local news reporting that the cause was pneumonic plague (not the bubonic plague of “Black Death” fame). Another person may have been infected. It’s hard to know what’s going on because Russia is even less trustworthy than China, which never seemed to reveal all it knew about the 2020 Covid virus. This sort of plague isn’t that infectious, so don’t freak out. But if it does escape Russia, it might show up next in Türkiye or Thailand, hotspots for Russian tourists.
Greenland sharks are in the crosshairs. This species is the world’s slowest shark, which makes us wonder how scientists measure shark speed. Are there races? They can also live for 400 years, which is astonishing. That means there are sharks in the sea around Greenland that were babies when British colonists were just starting to settle in America.
Anyway, fisherpeople in Greenland consider them a major nuisance because they eat halibut and cod right off the line, costing the fishers a lot of money and often wrecking their equipment. So Greenland devised a plan to cull at least 1,000 of these creatures. But scientist and fish lovers threw a fit, and the plan is now on hold. We don’t have a house view on the Greenland shark. We just find the tension between human and beast fascinating.
RESULTS MAY VARY 🤷♂️
Trump is trying to buy votes in the upcoming midterm elections by sending some 20 million Medicare enrollees $90, to “make coverage more affordable.” He’s also sending nearly 1 million people enrolled in the Affordable Care Act a $500 rebate, claiming that these people were “overcharged.”
We think Trump is cheap and the price of voting for him should be way higher. Our starting bid would be six figures.
[I placed a bet on falling oil prices]
There’s a brawl over daylight saving time. A bill in Congress called the Sunshine Protection Act would make DST permanent. Trump is a big fan. But some senators, including Republican Tom Cotton of Arkansas, think it’s a bad idea, and are blocking it. Trump singled out Cotton for retribution, publishing his cell phone number in an October 3 social-media post and telling everybody who wants year-round DST to call Cotton and tell him that.
I gave it a shot. Cotton didn’t answer. My call went to voice mail and the voice said the mailbox was full. Maybe he’ll see my number and call me back.
SAFELY IGNORE 🚫
The botched execution of Christa Pike in Tennessee is like Government-by-Kafka. The state tried to execute her on September 30 for a grisly 1995 murder, but whoever tried to inject her with lethal pentobarbital apparently couldn’t find a vein and injected it into flesh instead. Pike passed out and her attorneys thought she might be brain-dead. But she regained consciousness and is talking. Tennessee Gov. Bill Lee says part of his job is to kill criminals, and he can’t get it done. It’s a macabre form of failure.
[How to know when soaring rates are a problem]
Trump promised “big surprises” before the midterm elections on November 3, and said they will involve his creepy budget chief Russell Vought. He’s the guy whose job is to implement the “Project 2025” plan that a majority of Americans oppose. Maybe Vought will dress up as the grim reaper for Halloween and give out doses of pneumonic plague? We are giddy with anticipation.
Do we really need another Facebook movie? The talented actors starring in Aaron Sorkin’s second take on Mark Zuckerberg’s empire, “Social Reckoning,” include Jeremy Strong, Mikey Madison, and Jeremy Allen White. The movie dramatizes the real-life whistleblower who outed Facebook in 2021 for using rage bait and other slimy tactics to addict users, including kids. It’s kind of an old story.
Worth your Friday night? Eh. The film earns a weak 60% rating on Rotten Tomatoes, enough to suggest that maybe it would be more fun to watch the new Elon Musk documentary. Or Trump TV. Actually, maybe try a book.
Meanwhile, enjoy a cartoon.
You can order this cartoon👆 and play cartoon-themed puzzles and word games at CartoonStock.com.
At least Tom Cotton has a bit if integrity left because most Republican Party member's gave up on that a long time ago.I had no ideal i was going to get 90 dollars from Trump and, if he would just send me a envelope i would be more than glad to give it back.You remember he did this the first time he was in office. Trump just like most politician's think money grows on trees or on the middle class.