The Matterboard is our weekly assessment of what’s worth your attention and what isn’t. Here’s last week’s edition, here’s an overview of the project, and here’s the full archive.
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Here’s what’s new on The Matterboard:
PAY ATTENTION ⚠️
The Iran war is now an economic battle, according to President Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who announced the onset of “Operation Economic Outcast” on August 24. Sounds scary! Maybe Economic Outcast will be the hot new Halloween costume terrifying everybody in October.
We’re joking about OEO for two reasons. One, Trump has clearly lost the stomach for military operations in the region, given that they don’t seem to be accomplishing anything except keeping oil and gasoline prices elevated. Two, there’s a very long history of sanctions and other forms of economic pressure failing to accomplish the desired goals. Bessent calls the plan an “economic D-Day,” which we predict will end up among the top 10 hyperboles ever uttered about Trump’s Iran war.
These new sanctions will hurt Iran, which had a hyperinflation problem before the war that is now far worse. Some of the mullahs will go without their taste of the nation’s oil revenue for a while. But China, Russia, and other important countries won’t go along with the penalties, providing Iran a lifeline. Plus, Iran wants to tough it out till the US midterm elections, to prevent arch-enemy Trump from declaring a breakthrough before Americans vote. No resolution of the Iran war Trump launched six months ago is likely until November, at the earliest, when voters may declare Trump and his fellow Republicans political outcasts.
Hot oceans. Global ocean temperatures hit a new record high of about 70° F on August 22. Great for swimmers. Bad news for everybody harmed by a warming planet. Global warming probably also caused a glacier to collapse in the mountains of Nepal on August 26, causing ghastly flooding that killed hundreds. These kinds of ecological disasters will keep happening.
MIGHT GET SPICY 🤔
Cancer breakthrough. Not all news is bad. The FDA approved a pill to treat pancreatic cancer that might be able to double the survival rate. If you’ve known anybody with pancreatic cancer, you know this is a devastating disease that progresses rapidly and ruthlessly. Thank you, science.
Meta settles. The parent of Facebook and Instagram settled a lawsuit with 47 states over deliberate efforts to addict kids to social media content. It’s interesting. Meta will install blocks on its apps that limit users under 18 to two hours’ of use per day, with all activity blocked during school hours and from midnight to 6 am. Only a parent can unlock those blocks. Meta wants YouTube, TikTok, and other social media platforms to adopt the same rules, which could get even tighter if they all agree. There are also new limits on the kind of content minors can see and on “like” counts, which can become competitive.
[What the bond market wants you to know]
Kids are devilishly sneaky and they find a way around many rules. Will they outsmart Meta? Or bug their parents until they cave and allow regular addictive use?
US-Canada smackdown. Trump has renewed his trade war with Canada, and Canada isn’t backing down. Trump started it last year with new tariffs on Canadian imports. Canada retaliated with new limits on American imports. Trump has now counter-retaliated, and Canada counter-counter-retaliated. This could amount to a bunch of saber-rattling that settles down, but some analysts think neither side is likely to blink, with new tariffs of 50% going into effect on billions of dollars of goods traveling in both directions during the next several months.
This is profoundly stupid. Trump is in the middle of a hugely consequential war the United States is in the process of losing. You’d think he’d find better things to do than harm both the US and Canadian economies even further. Trade economist Chad Bown of the Peterson Institute for Intl. Economics says the ultimate winner of this trade war won’t be the United States or Canada—it’ll be China.
Part of Trump’s plan to meddle with the midterm elections remains intact, after the Supreme Court allowed a Trump plan to restrict mail-in voting to move forward. In March, Trump signed an executive order requiring the US Postal Service to restrict the use of mail-in ballots by some voters. Nearly two dozen states sued to stop the measure, which a judge did in early August. The Supreme Court overturned that on August 24, but only on a technicality. No court has ruled on whether the Trump order is legal. The USPS will now move ahead with its plan, while opposing states will sue once again to stop. It’s not clear if the whole mess will be concluded by Election Day on November 3.
[A Subaru Capitalist takes on the “Subaru Socialists”]
Historically, Democratic voters have used mail-in voting a bit more than Republican voters, which is probably why Trump wants to restrict mail-in ballots. But Democrats are highly energized this year and pretty aware that Trump wants to scupper their votes. They may be far more inclined to vote in person. Guess who else relies on mail-in voting? Older Republicans in rural areas, who have been a source of strength for Trump. His scheme, if allowed to move forward, could backfire.
An American in Moscow. Aviation geeks noticed a US Air Force C-17 cargo jet landing in Moscow on August 25. That doesn’t happen every day, so rumors began to swirl. It turns out CIA Director John Ratcliffe was on board. He stayed in Moscow for about eight hours.
What did he do there? Press reports suggest Ratcliffe was there to tell the Russians to stop sending drones into NATO airspace (we told you about that last week) and to drop a plan to test NATO defenses further. Maybe, but that could be a decoy explanation. Note that Bessent announced his “economic D-Day” in Iran at around the same time. Also keep in mind Trump’s weird admiration for Russian dictator Vladimir Putin. Maybe Trump has urgent plans to revive his Trump Tower Moscow project and he thought the CIA director could seal the deal.
Opposition to data centers is becoming one of the top political issues in this year’s midterm elections. More than two-thirds of voters oppose the local construction of data centers, and politicians who once supported the businesses are flip-flopping. Congressional races in Ohio, Michigan, Texas, and elsewhere could turn on the issue. Republican Gov. Greg Abbott of Texas went from inviting construction of the power hungry computing centers to imposing restrictions. The main worry is energy shortages and higher costs for consumers, given that data centers are electricity hogs.
RESULTS MAY VARY 🤷♂️
Trump flounders. The latest poll by Strength in Numbers shows that Trump has a negative approval rating—more disapprove than approve—on every one of 12 issues they ask about. That includes border security, where his net approval is -5, and immigration, at -13. Those have typically been Trump’s strongest issues. On jobs and the economy, Trump’s net approval is -48. That’s dismal, especially for an issue many voters once trusted Trump on.
NFL battering. A new study found that the lifetime incidence of the brain disease CTE could be 25% among pro football players, and possibly much higher. CTE is the condition caused by repeat trauma to the brain that has been linked with dementia in some players. The NFL and the players’ union both say they are concerned and intent on protecting players to the maximum extent possible. But the game will go on, more or less as it is.
SAFELY IGNORE 🚫
Bessent v. the bond market. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent got a schooling from legendary investor Stanley Druckenmiller, who was once his boss. In an August 24 Wall Street Journal editorial, Druckenmiller said it was a “mistake” for Bessent to promise a Treasury maneuver meant to lower long-term interest rates. Druckenmiller said Bessent should focus instead on fixing the core problem—getting the federal debt under control and reducing annual deficits that are now running around $2 trillion. There was an unstated undercurrent: That Bessent, who ought to know what he’s doing, is debasing himself and risking his reputation by using gimmicks to impress his boss, President Trump. Druckenmiller seemed to be saying: Really, Scott?
[The myth of the prosperous worker]
Jackson Hole dud. We expect Fed chair Kevin Warsh to disappoint when he delivers a much-anticipated speech at a conference in Wyoming on April 28—mainly because we just don’t think Warsh will say anything of substance. There will be tons of coverage anyway because the financial news networks need to talk about something. We’ll own up to the mistake if we’re wrong and Warsh busts a move in Jackson Hole.
Imported beef beef. Beef prices are up 9% year over year and 22% during the last two years. So Trump said he’ll pause his own tariffs on beef imports and allow more foreign beef into the country. It’s a lose-lose move for Trump. He’s not responsible for the cattle shortage that’s the main cause of higher prices. But he did put new taxes on imported beef—giving voters a reasons to blame him for beeflation. And now, American ranchers are angry that he’s cutting importers a break. Plus, the tariff pause probably won’t lower prices enough for most consumers to notice. Trump is making everybody unhappy.
[Trump and Bessent are badly missing their own economic targets]
WNBA trans flap. Everything in America is politicized (except Dolly Parton🥲), so yeah, it makes sense that women’s pro basketball would become ground zero for the battle over trans athletes and other woke land mines. Indiana Fever guard Sophie Cunningham said in a July 21 ESPN profile that she would prefer trans athletes not compete with young women. Firestorms erupted. Conservative media tried to adopt Cunningham while gay-rights advocates attacked her. Fox News has devoted at least 206 segments to the WNBA this summer, few of them focusing on basketball and most of them stoking cultural outrage.
Let young people express their opinions. Let talented athletes play basketball. If you want to be outraged, target the national debt.
Kennedy Center saga. Trump has turned the Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts into a farcical microcosm of his entire second term. He has appointed cronies to the board, tried to name it after himself, reoriented the programming from highbrow to lowbrow, and blasted court decisions that blocked the renaming of the center after himself. He’s now overseeing a two-year renovation of the facility.
On August 24, the Justice Dept. filed a motion in one lawsuit saying that if Trump’s name can’t be added to the building, the government might have no choice but to bulldoze the entire structure. Good-government groups find the suggestion appalling, but we think it would be perfectly appropriate: A hole in the ground where the Kennedy Center once stood would be the perfect metaphor for Trump’s nihilist presidency. Maybe it could stand in perpetuity as America’s tribute to the 47th president.
One typo: Jackson Hole must be Aug 28, not Apr 28.
The Kennedy Center saga as a metaphor for the entire Trump 2.0 experience is a trenchant observation!
NYT reports today that the Ratcliffe visit to Moscow was at least in part to give the Russians a reality check about how we perceive their situation vs Ukraine and to urge them to come to a negotiated solution - on the basis that Putin's FSB/SVR may not have been giving him the true picture on the ground and maybe this meeting will spur them to be more open with him (or spur Putin to ask his guys to tell him the true story). High hopes! Delusional despots don't dream of failures.