Introducing the Pinpoint Press Better-Off Index

Our data shows whether ordinary people are better off—or worse off—than than they were one year ago.

The vibecession. The K-shaped economy. The affordability crisis. These are all rhetorical efforts to capture what exactly is wrong with prosperity in America these days.

We’ve applied some data to the question. The Pinpoint Press constructed a proprietary Better-Off Index to gauge whether ordinary people are better off than they were one year ago. This is an intuitive way many people think about their finances, and it’s also a logical way to gauge the overall direction of the economy.

You’re better off than you were one year ago if you own stocks. If not, you’re doing about the same, on average.

The Pinpoint Press Better-Off Index encompasses four basic economic metrics. We start with the overall employment level, because that reveals whether jobs are becoming more or less plentiful. We include real income, adjusted for inflation, because it captures whether purchasing power is increasing or decreasing. Home affordability accounts for how readily Americans can start building wealth through home ownership. Finally, we wrap in stock prices, since that accounts for the value of investments and retirement accounts.

[More: Inflation moderates, but affordability is still a problem]

For each of these, we calculate the year-over-year change every month. Then we aggregate those figures into a single index number that represents whether the direction of the economy is better or worse than it was one year earlier. An index number of 100 would indicate no change from one year ago. An index number above 100 represents improvement, while a number below 100 means things are getting worse.

We also do a separate index by stripping out stocks, so that series represents just three things: the 12-month change in employment, real income, and home affordability. That applies more to people who aren’t building financial wealth through stock ownership.

The results validate the affordability crisis and explain why it’s happening, as these charts show.

Americans are better off than they were during the inflation surge of 2022 and 2023. But that’s not good enough for a lot of people.

Since any number above 100 represents a better-off economy, the index number for January 2026—117—looks pretty good. But when you strip out stocks, the index is barely above 100—basically no better or worse than one year ago. And it’s been heading downward since May, which validates the sense many people have that something is going wrong.

What exactly is the problem? Here’s what’s happening with each of the four components of the index:

Job growth is slowing and home affordability stinks. These are major problems contributing to the affordability crisis.

There have been two important changes during the last few months. The first is the slowdown in employment. Current employment levels are slightly higher than they were a year ago, but the year-over-year improvement has been declining as hiring slows.

[More: Voters hate both political parties more than ever]

Housing affordability, which comes from data collected by the Atlanta Federal Reserve, has deteriorated slightly from levels of one year ago, mainly because the median home price has risen by more than 5%. It takes 43% of median income to pay for the typical home, up from 42% a year ago.

That’s the K-shaped economy in numbers. People who own stocks are better off because the market was up 16.4% at the end of December, compared with one year earlier. If you don’t own stocks, you didn’t enjoy that wealth boost and you’re roughly equal to where you were one year ago. Plus, you sense that jobs are getting more scarce and housing is getting a little more expensive.

Everybody’s circumstances are different, of course. One index can’t speak for everybody. But the Better-Off Index tracks well with developments in the economy during recent years.

[More: Job growth cratered in 2025]

The lowest point in the Better-Off Index during the last five years came in October 2022, when inflation was nearly 8%. That hammered purchasing power and pushed real incomes well below year-earlier levels. Home affordability was worsening, with the average mortgage more than doubling in 12 months. And a stock selloff was eating into wealth, rather than creating it. For 12 months in 2022 and 2023, the Better-Off Index excluding stocks was higher than the index including stocks, as the chart above shows.

These numbers can change fairly quickly, affecting consumer confidence, the direction of financial markets, presidential approval and many other things. The Better-Off Index will show up frequently in future reporting at The Pinpoint Press, as we do our best to explain what’s happening to the fortunes of ordinary people and what policymakers ought to do about it.