Pinpoint Intel, 03.07.26: What’s going wrong in Iran, in Trump’s trade wars, and in the job market

Plus, regime change in Cuba

Hello, everybody. My regular update of what matters this week is now the Pinpoint Intel Brief. As always, I want to hear what you like and don’t like about The Pinpoint Press, along with your suggestions for future coverage.

Iran pros and cons. One week into President Trump’s daring and perhaps reckless war with Iran, it’s becoming clear what is going right and what is going wrong.

What’s going right: US and Israeli forces are hammering Iran’s arsenal, severely degrading its military capabilities. The Pentagon says Iran’s pace of missile launches has dropped by more than 80% since the start of the war, with drone launches down by more than 70%. (I’m trusting the Pentagon, for now, as long as independent experts think its info is credible.) US and Israeli forces face almost no air defenses over Iran, which means they can pound fixed targets into obliteration and hunt for mobile targets such as drone and missile launchers. This war is defanging one of the world’s most evil governments.

What’s going wrong: 1. Trump obviously had no plan to keep energy flowing through the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most important energy chokepoint. Tankers are sitting idle on either side of the strait because insurers won’t provide coverage, as oil prices spike to the $90 per barrel range. This was completely predictable. Trump jumped in to say the US would provide insurance, along with navy escorts. But it’s taking time to set that up, which shows how poor Trump’s planning was. And this is a guy obsessed with oil and gasoline prices!

2. Trump and his team failed to think through the drone-defense problem for allies in the region, who have been taking hits from Iranian weapons and are running out of expensive interceptors. Ukraine, the world’s leading expert in countering Iranian-style drones, said after the war started it was sending experts to help some Gulf nations with drone defense. It’s obvious the United States didn’t consult Ukraine beforehand. Boneheaded move. Trump is so busy denigrating Ukraine that he can’t ask for help when it might save lives and protect property. Revolting.

[3 new worries about the Iran war and oil prices]

Many criticisms of Trump’s handling of the war are valid. His war aims are vague and shifty. He lied by saying Iran posed an imminent threat to Americans. He’s power-hungry and may have started the war for personal reasons. He did nothing to prepare Americans for any cost or sacrifice.

But there are at least four reasons for optimism. One is that the US military is a lot more competent than its civilian leadership. Americans should have confidence that the troops and their leaders will do their jobs well. Second is that the Israelis are a preeminent military that are doing a lot of the heavy lifting in the bombing campaign and not just piggybacking on their American allies. Third, rising energy prices are Trump’s Achilles’ heel and they will force him to find a way out of this mess. And fourth, the Iranian regime includes some of the worst people on earth, including thugs who have murdered thousands of nonviolent Iranians and judges who have sentenced women to death for not wearing face coverings. They deserve what they’re getting.

Here’s a reassuring snippet from a March 6 Bank of America research note: “History suggests the Iran conflict is likely to have little impact on the US economy. The risks involved certainly amount to an oil supply shock. However, a market reaction like we have seen so far may lead only to a modest transitory inflation shock absent further and persistent escalation.”

[How Trump gets out of the Iran war]

Here’s another reassuring snippet. In economist Peter Boockvar’s regular weekly roundup on March 6, the No. 1 positive development was this: “The head despot of Iran is dead, the Iranians have their best chance in 47 years to end the hard line, repressive regime.” That’s from an economic newsletter.

If you want more, here’s a nice assessment of where the war seems to be heading at the Council on Foreign Relations.

Surprising new Iranian leader. The Internet had some fun speculating about who Iran’s next leader might be, given that Trump has said he must approve the choice. Enjoy: 😄

Stocks take some incoming. Trump bragged about a “record” stock market over and over in his February 24 State of the Union speech. The stock market apparently wasn’t listening. Stocks had a lousy week, with the S&P 500 down 1.3%, mostly on concerns about spiking oil prices. The S&P is down 1.5% for the year, with the NASDAQ down 3.7%. Trump couldn’t contain himself when the narrow Dow index hit 50,000 for the first time on February 6, and his aides worked that talking point into all their public remarks. Well, the Dow has fallen back to 47,502. If Trump is lucky, he’ll get to celebrate Dow 50,000 all over again.

Tariff wars. There’s no truce in Trump’s trade wars, where developments are moving quickly.

1. With Trump’s emergency tariffs now ruled illegal by the Supreme Court, a lower court ordered the Trump administration to promptly refund $130 billion in tariffs it has illegally collected from American importing firms. Unclear if Trump will comply or try to slow-roll this.

2. Treasury Scott Bessent said the new 10% “global” tariff Trump imposed after the Supreme Court shot down his emergency tariffs will actually be 15%. Excellent timing! All the economists recommend raising taxes with there’s an energy crisis.

3. Two dozen states filed suit to block Trump’s new “global” tariffs, and there’s a good chance courts could find those illegal, too. This drama could go on for the rest of Trump’s term, but the likely outcome is that the overall tariff rate will be lower than Trump wants, and tolerable to markets.

[Check out the Weekly WTF, crazy stuff that actually happened.]

Who needs jobs? Buried in a cavalcade of war news was a lousy jobs report, which showed the economy losing 92,000 jobs in February. Recent confidence surveys that showed rising concerns about job security turned out to be right, which means ordinary Americans are sussing out the economy’s weaknesses before they shows up in the actual data. There was a bigger loss of 140,000 jobs in November, but that was right after the government shutdown and economists didn’t trust the data. Zoom out, however, and the job slump clearly correlates with Trump’s presidency and the onset of his foolhardy tariffs:

Some Trumpers think this is all fine, because the biggest decline during his term has been in government employment, as if those jobs are expendable. But the Trump economy has also shed jobs in at least four other important sectors, including the usually reliable business services, plus retail and even IT. Here’s a breakdown:

Less odius ICE? Trump’s firing of Homeland Secretary Kristi Noem and his nomination of Sen. Markwayne Mullin of Oklahoma to replace her might signal a reset for the Gestapish Immigration and Customs Enforcement, whose masked agents have been marauding through US cities hunting for undocumented migrants. Mullin needs Senate confirmation. There’s still a funding impasse for Homeland Security, ICE’s parent agency. And there are probably enough Republicans who [silently] deplore the brutal ICE tactics to insist that DHS get its shit together if Trump wants Mullin confirmed, and funding restored for his internal security force. It’s possible, but far from certain, that the worst of Trump’s migration abuses are over.

[The Trump economy slips into reverse]

Do not forget: Out-of-control federal immigration agents with marginal policing skills killed nonviolent protesters Alex Pretti and Renee Good in Minneapolis earlier this year. This should not happen in America and there should be consequences.

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WATCH THIS:

Cuba quivers. The most nervous regime in the world right now, other than Iran, has got to be Cuba’s. Trump has said he intends a “friendly takeover” of Cuba, which is certainly not how the island’s outdated and pathetic Communist leaders must see it. But Cuba is an easy lift compared with Trump’s war with Iran and his hostile takeover of Venezuela in January. Plus, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, a son of Cuban immigrants who fled the island in 1956, is keen to dump the Fidel Castro legatees who are running Cuba today. It could happen and is maybe even likely.

Havana, 2023. I’m deliberately scowling at Fidel.

Inflation. Pricing data for February arrives March 11. Economists expect the annual inflation rate to stay the same, at 2.4%. But backward-looking inflation data won’t mean as much now that Trump’s Iran war is raising energy prices and creating a lot of future uncertainty.