The Weekly WTF: A winning bet against Kristi Noem, stunning autopen verdict

Plus, there’s a new worst Trump Cabinet Secretary!

This stuff actually happened:

“Here’s our bombing address.” This has gotten a lot of attention, but it’s worth highlighting that with American forces bearing down on them and President Trump telegraphing an imminent attack, Iran’s leadership met on February 28 for an above-ground meeting at a regularly used government building that was probably one of the Pentagon’s top Iranian targets. It’s almost like they volunteered for regime change.

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei knew that Israel’s spy service, the Mossad, had thoroughly infiltrated his government, evidenced over the years by numerous assassinations of key Iranian officials. Trump had arrayed the largest US armada in the Persian Gulf region in at least 20 years. Yet Khamenei and his top aides went about business as usual, and they’re now mostly dead. If they had just flipped on CNN, they might have gotten the hint that they should be a little more careful.

What, me worry?

Maybe they read the Pinpoint Press and saw my January 30 prediction that Trump was not going to attack Iran. I based that on Trump’s pattern up to that point, which was to foment a crisis then announce a last-minute deal that averted the worst-case outcome. But we have a new Trump, now, one who is willing to drive the stunt car off the cliff and hope the parachute deploys. I thought I had Trump’s M.O figured out, but I must have given my AI tool the wrong inputs. So did a lot of others.

[More: How Trump gets out of his Iran war]

Putin to the rescue. Russian President Vladimir Putin is offering himself as a mediator able to bring peace to the Middle East, as he has done so successfully in Ukraine. Putin called the leaders of at least four Gulf nations Iran has attacked, to emphasize “the need to urgently resolve the conflict through diplomatic means,” according to the Institute for the Study of War. Putin probably had his fingers crossed behind his back when he said that. Putin has personally started at least three wars that have killed millions of people, including the “special military operation” in Ukraine that began in 2022 and is the largest European war since World War II. If you ever invite Putin to a party, don’t be surprised if he hijacks your house and then moves on to your neighbor’s.

It’s all Zelensky’s fault. On March 2, Trump wrote a social media post calling Ukrainian Volodymyr Zelensky “the P.T. Barnum of Ukraine.” Trump appeared angry that the United States under President Joe Biden gave Ukraine a lot of weapons Trump wishes he had to available to use against Iran. Barnum, for what it’s worth, was a successful businessman and showman extraordinaire who supposedly said, “There’s a sucker born every minute.” One would think Trump admires that kind of record.

Noem more. Trump fired Dept. of Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem after a year in which she proved to be profoundly incompetent. Axios has this list of Noem’s top five controversies. A sixth is that she said during a March 4 Congressional hearing that Trump personally approved a $220 ad campaign, funded by you and me, to improve her personal image. The new DHS Secretary is Markwayne Mullin, the only member of Congress with two first names rolled into one.

Noem will become special envoy to “The Shield of the Americas.” If anybody knows what that is, please explain. She seems happy, though. In a social media post, she thanked Trump for the demotion and said she’s looking forward to blah blah blah.

Diligent readers will recall that on February 17, I placed a $10 bet on Kalshi that Noem would be gone by May 31. The odds at the time were just 23%. My $10 bet will pay out $41. I also guessed right with my Kalshi bet that three Supreme Court justices would dissent from the decision to overturn Trump’s emergency tariffs. That $10 bet paid out $30. I guessed wrong when I said Trump’s State of the Union speech would not include the word “ICE.” I lost $10 on that one.

[More: Why I started gambling on the news]

The new worst Trump Cabinet secretary. With Noem gone, Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer is now winning the race for worst Cabinet official in Trump’s government. The list of scandals involving the former representative from Oregon includes accusations of: Drinking on the job from a stash she keeps in her office, having an affair with a member of her security detail, taking staffers to a strip club while on an official trip, and using taxpayer funds to finance a birthday party and personal trips. Oh, her husband has also been accused of groping two women at Labor Dept. headquarters in Washington, DC, and he’s barred from the building. The Labor Dept. inspector general is investigating, but in Trump’s government, the only real sin is embarrassing Trump himself. He may not even know who his Labor secretary is.

AK Guy v. Sexy Pic Guy. Republican Rep. Tony Gonzales of Texas finally admitted he had an affair with a former aide who killed herself last year at the age of 35. That means he’s probably toast. Gonzales was defiant after the recent revelation of a text exchange with the aide in which he asked for a “sexy pic” and inquired about her “favorite position,” as we explained last week. Now that Gonzales has admitted the obvious, House leaders are calling for him to resign, which he probably will.

In the March 3 primary election, neither Gonzales nor his opponent, Brandon Herrera, won 50%, sending the race to a runoff. Herrera is a gun nut who calls himself “AK guy” and is far more conservative than Gonzales. So if Gonzales drops out and AK Guy ends up as the Republican candidate, Democrats might have a chance of flipping the district, which is conservative but not excessively Trumpy. The Democratic candidate is Katy Padilla Stout, a lawyer and former teacher you can barely find on the Internet. That will change if this becomes a legit flip opportunity for Dems.

Autopen absolved. Everybody can breathe a huge sigh of relief now that Joe Biden’s autopen has escaped prosecution. Trump’s Justice Dept. tried to prosecute Biden for using an autopen to sign presidential documents and preserving his arm strength for salutes and the like. But Trump’s autopen police couldn’t find a crime and the New York Times recently reported that the Justice Dept. has shelved the case. Nobody is clamoring for Trump to release the autopen files, and Congress plans no hearings. So autopengate is probably over.

Trump has a consolation prize: A portrait of an autopen hangs in a White House gallery of presidents in the spot where Biden would otherwise be. One wonders what the next Democratic president might hang in lieu of Trump’s portrait.