Fifteen questions this week. It was a big week! Answers at the bottom.
ANSWERS 🕺🎉🤸♀️
1. There were 29% odds of Democrats holding 250+ House seats before the election. Those were the odds on prediction market Kalshi. Betting sites generally did a good job of forecasting the election outcomes, yet the Democrats still blew past expectations.
2. There were 10% odds of Democrats holding 56+ Senate seats before the election. Also from Kalshi. Markets thought Democrats would take the Senate but still underestimated the margin.
[Check out The Weekly Matterboard, where we rate the most and least important news]
3. Trump blamed Fox News. Trump blamed the usually right-wing network for featuring too many Democrats and asking dumb polling questions. He didn’t blame himself or his vice president.
4. 47% favorability rating for Democrats. That’s according to exit polls, so it’s among actual voters, not the overall population. The Republican Party’s favorability rating was 40% in the same exit polls. Winning a majority of congressional seats with an approval rating below 50% means voters went against Republicans much more than they went for Democrats.
5. 89% cited the cost of living as a major concern. Also from exit polls. That tells you even wealthy Americans unaffected by price hikes know that stuff has gotten expensive under Trump.
6. 90% cited government corruption as a major concern. More exit polling. That’s very high.
7. 8 Democratic Socialists will serve in Congress next year. That’s just 2.9% of the roughly 310 Democrats who will be on Capitol Hill. The most left-wing Democrats get a lot of attention but won’t be very influential in Congress.
[What Democrats need now: A convincing leader]
8. Vance’s presidential odds fell by 5 points, to around 14%. The midterms proved Trump is historically unpopular, which is bad news for anybody running on his coattails.
9. Pick another protein. Earlier this year, a TV anchor asked Mississippi Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith what people should do about high beef prices. She said, “You know, there are so many proteins to choose from.” Democratic challenger Scott Colom riffed on that response in a campaign ad analysts say is the best of the year. It’s also funny as shit. Check it out here. Colom is leading in a race that could come down to hundreds or even dozens of votes. If Colom wins, count it as the biggest upset of the midterms.
[Why I lost money on the midterm elections]
10. Musk’s net worth declined by around $45 billion in three days. That’s because the stock values of his companies Tesla and SpaceX sank after the elections. Most of Musk’s net worth comes from his stake in those two goliaths. They could come under tough scrutiny by newly elected Democrats in Congress and in states such as Texas, Ohio, and Georgia.
11. Tesla is discontinuing the Cybertruck. Musk once called it “the best product Tesla has ever made.” But the angular eyesore sold poorly, not helped by Musk’s embrace of Donald Trump and a de facto boycott of Tesla products by millions of anti-Trumpers. Tesla is moving on to self-driving cars, robotaxis, and AI experiments.
12. Fears of an AI backlash. Voters picked dozens of candidates who want stronger regulation of data centers and other AI infrastructure, which could slow spending and investment returns. The S&P 500 index fell 2.5% over the three trading days following Election Day.
13. Newsom commuted all of California’s death sentences. That comes after the ghastly botched execution of a Tennessee convict in October. The California death-row inmates will serve life sentences without parole.
14. All of the above. A crafty researcher discovered more than 4,500 words and phrases Apple does not allow its devices to autocomplete or swipe-type. The full, fascinating list is here. Most of the words are overtly offensive or could be considered offensive. You can still type the words yourself. It’s just that Apple won’t help you.
15. McRib. The class-action lawsuit contends that the occasionally available McRib sandwich isn’t actually pork rib meat, but other parts of the pig. Wow! McDonald’s has some exacting customers who know their BBQ! Or could this be greedy lawyers looking for somebody to fleece? 🤔
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