Many Americans will feel relieved when the November 3 midterm elections are over and we can move on to something else. Odds seem high that Democrats will win at least one house of Congress and end unified Republican control of the federal government.
But November 3 may be the beginning, not the end, of a very tense moment in American politics. Trump will likely reject the outcome of any election that goes against him. He and his Republican allies have suggested they might use excessive federal power and illegal methods to disrupt or overturn the elections and ensure Republicans keep control of Congress.
Prediction site Kalshi gives Democrats a 62% chance of winning both houses of Congress. The median forecast is for Democrats to control 238 seats in the House next year, up from 214 now. That would be a comfortable majority. The Kalshi forecast for the Senate is 52 Democratic Senate seats, up from 47 now. That would be a narrow majority.
Can Trump abide that? His election threats might be bluster, but it would be foolish to dismiss them. Trump has already co-opted the Justice Dept. to harass perceived enemies and serve his personal agenda in other ways. He whipped up a mob that stormed the US Capitol on January 6, 2021, in an effort to overturn the 2020 presidential election. So there’s ample precedent.
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As a public service announcement, voters or election workers concerned with the behavior of federal officials at election venues can call the nonpartisan Election Protection Coalition to report problems at 866-687-8683 (800-OUR-VOTE). The group Protect Democracy has this guide for anybody worried about intimidation at their voting place.
Now: Here are 12 ways Trump could try to rig the election outcome in 2026, with our best assessment of what’s likely to happen:
Republican gerrymandering gains. The gerrymandering is already done, with legislatures in nine states substantially redrawing congressional maps. Texas Republicans got it started, with Democrats in California trying to counter them, and other states jumping in. On the whole, this year’s gerrymandering might give Republicans an edge in 5 to 10 races, fewer than they were hoping for originally. And it could be less than that. Some experts think Republican gerrymandering will backfire by turning some voters the party was taking for granted against them. Huge Democratic turnout could also negate GOP gerrymandering efforts. Outlook: Overall GOP gains of 5 seats or fewer, due to heavy Democratic turnout.
Suppressing mail-in ballots. Legal challenges have blocked nearly all of Trump’s efforts to restrict mail-in voting. But there could still be trouble. The Justice Dept. could try to stop the counting of mail-in ballots received after Election Day, or any other mailed ballots it deems suspicious. There’s very little voting fraud by mail, or otherwise, and courts would probably reject any such efforts. As another backstop, many voters worried about Trump trashing their ballots are likely to vote in person, just in case. Outlook: Minimal effect.
Emergency declaration. Some Trump allies have urged him to declare a national emergency or invoke the Insurrection Act as a way to assert federal control over state and local elections. That would obviously be ridiculous, since there’s no emergency. And even if the president does declare an emergency, that wouldn’t give the federal government any new authority over elections. Outlook: Unlikely.
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Flushing out “noncitizen voters.” Trump’s immigration agents are trying to do this now, going door-to-door in some places looking for people who aren’t eligible to vote but tried to do so anyway. Noncitizen voting is almost nonexistent, given that most people in the country on a temporary basis or illegally don’t want to cause trouble for themselves by drawing the scrutiny of election officials or other authorities. Trump’s noncitizen voter purge is probably meant to intimidate legal voters who are minorities and might worry about getting hassled if they show up to vote. Outlook: It probably won’t work and might backfire by getting anti-Trump voters even more fired up to turn out.
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Sending federal agents to polling sites. It’s illegal for armed federal agents of any kind to show up at election sites. That doesn’t mean Trump won’t try. He also seems poised to send more than 1,000 federal election “monitors” to voting sites. Federal monitors generally need the permission of state or local election officials to enter a voting site, and they have to leave if voting officials tell them to. Federal monitors have no authority to intervene in voting in any way. They’re also prohibited from trying to intimidate voters. Outlook: There will probably be more federal monitors than usual and they’ll be trying to document election fraud, even though it’s extremely rare. If armed federal agents show up at voting sites, there will be immediate legal efforts to block their activities by voting rights groups and Democratic activists who are very well prepared.
Seizing election equipment. The FBI or other federal law enforcement agencies could try to seize voting machines, ballots, or other election materials. Laws broadly prevent this and there would be immediate legal challenges. The feds would probably lose in court. But there could be problems if the chain of custody for ballots is disrupted. Outlook: Possible in some locations.
Federal lawsuits challenging election outcomes. This seems nearly certain. Trump and his politicized Justice Dept. have already filed a lawsuit in Alaska seeking to block the outcome of the Senate race there if Democrat Mary Peltola wins. Consider that a preview of other legal challenges. Outlook: This strategy could cause chaos and confusion, but the Trump administration could very well lose every legal challenge.
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Certification obstruction. Trump has tried before to stop county officials from certifying election results, so he will probably try to do so again. But certifying an election is not optional. It’s a mandatory duty of county election officials and courts will likely require certification wherever there are challenges. Outlook: Expect targeted efforts to block certain election results that ultimately fail in court.
Martial law. This would be an extreme and desperate effort to block the election outcome using federal troops as a bulwark against court decisions ordering election results to be upheld. It would require unprecedented abuse of power by military leaders well schooled in the illegality of such a move. Outlook: Scary but unlikely.
Blocking the next Congress from taking their seats. This is a far-fetched scheme pushed by some Trumpers that would rely on a rogue clerk of the House of Representatives and a lot of die-hard Trump Republicans who refuse to swear in Democrats. Legal barriers are high and Trump is losing support among Congressional Republicans, anyway. Outlook: Unlikely.
Another insurrection at the US Capitol. Trump faced basically no long-term consequences from riling up the mob that stormed the Capitol on January 6, 2021. So why not try again? Well, for one, it’s not Trump’s own election that would be at stake this time. Trump is less popular than ever and turnout for such an event might be low. And there’d be more members of his own party pushing back. Outlook: Unlikely.
Trump complaining forever about a rigged 2026 election. He’s already doing it, and everybody should know by now that Trump’s modus operandi is to blame anything except his own failures for adverse outcomes. Outlook: Near certainty, but it might not matter.
Bottom line: If the polls are right and Democrats achieve widespread gains, Trump will try and probably fail to overturn the midterm results. Votebeat recently surveyed 31 election experts and found them generally less concerned about election interference than they were in the spring. That’s largely because most of Trump’s efforts to change election laws and procedures have failed, with the courts upholding most of the nation’s relatively rigorous election rules.
So maybe there will be an orderly election, with the voters’ will upheld. But Trump has telegraphed his determination to make it a lively fight and probe every way of getting the outcome he wants.
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This is great news. As Democrats are so far ahead voters don’t have to go out of their way to vote for Democrats. Don’t lose any money taking time off from work to vote because Democrats are very comfortably ahead. Also, don’t waste your time and hours standing in long lines to vote Democrat because Democrats are so far ahead. Thanks for helping us not waste our time.