President Trump’s economic program is on trial. The midterm elections are usually a referendum on the president’s performance, and voters seem especially eager to weigh in on Trump and his fellow Republicans in 2026.
An unnecessary war with Iran is in its eighth month. Prices are uncomfortably high. Trump’s approval rating is historically low. And polls suggest Democrats may win control of both the House and Senate.
Here’s where the Trump economy stands as voters prepare to cast their ballots.
The biggest change under Trump has been soaring oil prices. Before Trump started the Iran war in February, Brent crude, the world benchmark, traded at $67 per barrel. Brent is now around $115, a 71% jump from pre-war levels.
Just about everybody knows how gasoline and diesel prices have skyrocketed:
At a campaign rally in Georgia on October 24, Trump said, “I don’t give a damn” about high energy prices. The reason, he said, is “we’re making a freaking fortune.” He was referring to oil and gas companies, which are bagging epic profits thanks to high oil and gas prices. Here’s how those profits look for 2026:
If you own energy stocks, that’s great news. The value of energy stocks is up 55% this year, according to S&P Global. But if you don’t own energy stocks, you’re a net loser. The higher cost of fuel caused by the Iran war has cost the typical household more than $1,100 so far, according to the Watson Institute at Brown University.
[Take the Weekly WTF news quiz: Can you guess Trump’s latest fixation?]
The Iran war has knocked Trump’s import tariffs from the headlines. But the tariffs are still there, with American importers paying those taxes to the US government. Here’s how Trump has raised import taxes: