The midterm elections, which conclude on November 3, are one of the most momentous events of the year. But what follows could be just as important—and include some dramatic surprises.
Democrats are riding a wave of discontent with President Trump, the Iran war he started in February, and a host of Trump actions that many voters don’t support. Trump’s approval rating is historically low, which normally augurs big gains for the opposition party in midterm elections.
Democrats seem likely to take control of the House of Representatives, which only requires a net gain of four seats. Forecasts for Democratic gains range from 10 to 20 seats, and possibly more if it’s a legitimate “blue wave.”
Not long ago, the Senate seemed to be a Republican fortress, due mainly to seats Democrats would have to flip in Trumpy states. At the start of the year, the odds of Democrats taking the Senate were just 30%, according to Kalshi.
The odds of Democrats taking the Senate have now soared to 66%. That’s because Democrats now seem likely to flip seats in North Carolina and Alaska, with polls showing them even or better in Maine, Ohio, Iowa, Kansas, and Texas. If Democrats can grab those two flips plus an additional two seats on net, they’ll win the Senate.
Control of one or both houses of Congress will give Democrats newfound power to investigate Trump administration activities and shape some legislation. But a lot could happen before the next Congress convenes next year. Here are 7 things to watch between Election Day and the end of 2026:
Trump election interference. Trump and his acolytes have already tried to manipulate state voter rolls and restrict mail-in voting. Immigration agents are hunting for noncitizen voters, who barely exist. Courts have blocked most of these efforts, but there could still be more to come. Trump could send federal agents to intimidate voters at polling places or seize ballots. Once the voting is over, there’s a good chance Trump will claim election fraud and try to overturn key losses. It’s a good bet Trump will stress the system somehow. Here’s a sensible guide to what might happen and what ordinary people can do about it.