I agreed with your previous assessment that Trump would not attack Iran. Well, that aged like unpasteurized milk left outside on a hot day. ;-) I think we gave Trump too much credit in terms of taking on board sane advice from the few remaining adults in the room (mostly military leaders inc. Gen. Caine).
I think Trump was ultimately driven by the same kind of "sunk-cost fallacy" we discussed earlier that held sway in the lead-up to the Iraq war of 2003. All we can do now is hope/pray for the best possible outcome (for our military, for the Iranian people, and for our allies) from this dangerous gamble, one that was entirely of choice.
Fair question. But we are a long way from Pahlavi having any realistic chance of dropping in to leas Iran. The IRGC is in charge and they're not about to cede power to Pahlavi or to anyone. Khamenei and some others are gone but there are still ~ 200,000 IRGC who control everything and have all the guns. If you really want to dig into this, follow that twitter list I linked to and see what some of the experts have to say. I'm getting a lot of my info from those folks....
Pahlavi also hasn’t been in Iran in 45+ years. Unlikely he could get the people’s nod just by walking in (I just checked, and well over half the population wasn’t even born when the Islamic Revolution happened in 1978/79 which I think is when Reza fled). Plus the Shah’s regime was highly repressive too, so probably no love lost for folks who remember the Before Times.
I agreed with your previous assessment that Trump would not attack Iran. Well, that aged like unpasteurized milk left outside on a hot day. ;-) I think we gave Trump too much credit in terms of taking on board sane advice from the few remaining adults in the room (mostly military leaders inc. Gen. Caine).
I think Trump was ultimately driven by the same kind of "sunk-cost fallacy" we discussed earlier that held sway in the lead-up to the Iraq war of 2003. All we can do now is hope/pray for the best possible outcome (for our military, for the Iranian people, and for our allies) from this dangerous gamble, one that was entirely of choice.
Have I been living in a bubble? I didn’t hear a word about Reza Pahlavi the exiled crown Prince? Has he been eliminated? Is that a fantasy?
Fair question. But we are a long way from Pahlavi having any realistic chance of dropping in to leas Iran. The IRGC is in charge and they're not about to cede power to Pahlavi or to anyone. Khamenei and some others are gone but there are still ~ 200,000 IRGC who control everything and have all the guns. If you really want to dig into this, follow that twitter list I linked to and see what some of the experts have to say. I'm getting a lot of my info from those folks....
Pahlavi also hasn’t been in Iran in 45+ years. Unlikely he could get the people’s nod just by walking in (I just checked, and well over half the population wasn’t even born when the Islamic Revolution happened in 1978/79 which I think is when Reza fled). Plus the Shah’s regime was highly repressive too, so probably no love lost for folks who remember the Before Times.
This podcast addresses your questions. It's pre-war but still valid. https://www.newyorker.com/podcast/the-new-yorker-radio-hour/what-could-go-wrong-or-right-in-a-war-with-iran The expert says younger Iranians kinda romanticize the shah era even though he was corrupt and abusive. I guess compared with these brutal mullahs that seems pretty good.