Trump is not going to attack Iran
In the Trump crisis playbook, the threat of war is followed by some kind of "deal."
Key takeaways: 😉
Trump has threatened US military action against Iran.
He sent a US aircraft carrier to the Persian Gulf region.
He may want to punish Iran for killing protesters.
Or maybe he wants Iran to renounce nuclear weapons.
Or maybe he wants to depose the Islamist regime.
The most likely outcome is a Trump “deal” with no military action.
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What did we learn from Greenland?
For weeks in December and January, President Trump hinted that he would order a military operation to acquire the remote territory of Denmark, or, failing that, bully Denmark and other European nations into ceding it via tariffs.
Nothing happened. Financial markets sold off on Trump’s threats and Trump relented, claiming he had negotiated a deal providing everything he wanted. There may or may not be such a deal, but the point is that Trump found an exit ramp, no matter how flimsy.
Trump is now suggesting a big US attack on Iran is imminent “The next attack will be worse,” Trump said on social media on January 28, referring to the June airstrikes on three Iranian nuclear sites. Trump or somebody in his administration even leaked to the New York Times the possibility of sending American commandos into Iran to further damage the nuclear sites or destabilize the theocratic regime.
Take this to the bank: There is no way Trump will order an attack on Iran that puts US troops on the ground in Iranian territory. It’s also extremely unlikely Trump will even order airstrikes on Iranian targets. He’s bluffing again. This is right out of the Trump crisis playbook.
As we’ve seen numerous times in both Trump presidential terms, Trump uses crisis and confrontation to accomplish things important to him. The usual pattern is to threaten something outlandish or unprecedented, push it to the brink, see how much pressure the system can bear, then announce some kind of deal as a form of de-escalation. Trump doesn’t care if people think he’s crazy. He may even deliberately use the madman theory to his advantage.
[More: Your 5-step guide to the next Trump crisis]
Trump’s threats may not look like a bluff to the Iranians, who must be anxious about a US aircraft carrier and other warships heading to the region. Trump pointed out on social media that the carrier, the USS Abraham Lincoln, is the same one that participated in the January 3 raid to capture Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. The message, obviously, was if we took down one foreign leader, we could take down another.
But Iran is vastly different from Venezuela. For one thing, it’s not in the western hemisphere that Trump seeks to dominate. It’s also a lot more dangerous than Venezuela, with missiles able to strike Israel and many countries in the Persian Gulf region.
US allies such as Saudi Arabia, Oman, Qatar and the UAE do not want Trump to order an attack on Iran, since they could get dragged in via retaliation or regional instability. Trump will listen to them. Then there’s the risk of American casualties, which would be likely if Trump ordered troops into Iran itself.
So what does Trump want with Iran? In early January, Trump threatened US military action against Iran if it harmed protesters objecting to hyperinflation and a failing economy. Iranian forces killed thousands of protesters anyway, ignoring Trump’s threat.
[More: Why Trump let up on Greenland while rampaging through Minnesota]
Trump then said he wanted to negotiate with Iran. He also threatened tariffs on other countries doing business with Iran. More recently, he said he wants Iran to renounce nuclear weapons, as if some worrisome capability survived the June attacks. There are also reports that Trump wants to force the Islamist regime from power.
So … take your pick? It might seem incoherent as a policy, but again, this is straight from the Trump crisis playbook. By establishing a menu of supposed goals, Trump has created optionality. He can cite any one of those goals when he declares victory and says he has reached a deal with Iran that precludes the need for military action.
There’s always the possibility that Trump gets so drunk on power that he veers from his own playbook and does something crazy that gets Americans killed and dooms his own presidency. But his Iranian gambit, so far, is standard Trump. If it gets as far as unnerving markets, that will be the moment Trump announces a “deal.”