Why Americans say they’re worse off under Trump
It's not a "vibecession." Our exclusive Better-Off Index shows that most Americans are not getting ahead under Trump.
One year into Donald Trump’s second presidential term, voters have buyer’s remorse.
Forty-nine percent of respondents in the latest New York Times poll said the economy is worse off than one year ago, when Trump took office. Only 32% said it’s better off, with 19% saying it’s about the same.
It’s not a vibecession, with people more bummed out than the numbers say they should be. Real changes in the economy during the last 12 months, in fact, almost perfectly match people’s perceptions.
The Pinpoint Press created a Better-Off Index to compare the present economy with the way it was one year earlier. We measure changes in job growth, real incomes adjusted for inflation, home affordability and stock values to answer the basic question, are we better off than we were one year ago?
If you own stocks, the answer is yes. The Better-Off Index for January 2026 is 117.3. Anything above 100 represents an improvement from one year ago. An index of 117 is slightly above the median, going back to 2006. So that’s pretty good.
But removing stocks yields a Better-Off Index of 100.9, which is basically no improvement at all. Of those three remaining metrics, total employment and real incomes are slightly better than they were one year ago, while home affordability is slightly worse.
These numbers line up neatly with the results of the Times survey. About 62% of Americans own stocks in some form, according to Gallup, either directly or through retirement plans such as pensions or 401(k) plans. But balances vary widely, and many Americans don’t have enough money in stocks to feel the “wealth effect” of a rising market, with growing net worth boosting purchasing power and confidence.
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Plus, other financial pressures offset portfolio gains. Housing affordability is notoriously bad, since there simply isn’t enough housing to meet national demand. It takes 43% of median income to pay for a typical home, according to the Atlanta Federal Reserve. Before the Covid pandemic in 2019, it only took 29% of median income to pay for a typical home. Rising home prices and elevated interest rates of the last two years have pushed home affordability to the worst levels in data that goes back to 2006.
Home affordability is a good proxy for rent affordability, which has been worsening as well. Fewer home owners means more renters and more demand pushing rents higher. The shortage of housing stock applies to rental properties, too, another factor pushing costs higher.
Our two other metrics, employment and real incomes, are slightly better than one year ago. But the trend has been downward in recent months, which means those could soon turn negative on a year-over-year basis.
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The Better-Off Index doesn’t measure psychology, but it’s worth noting that for many people, the status quo isn’t good enough. They don’t just want to stay where they were a year ago. They want to get ahead and end up tangibly better off over time, with more disposable income and improving living standards. So being in the same spot as a year earlier isn’t necessarily a mood-booster, especially if you feel stuck to start with.
If you have a substantial stock portfolio, own a home and feel secure in your job or your retirement, you may very well be part of the 32% who told the Times they’re better off after Trump’s first year in office. But if you have no home equity and stock holdings that are in a far-off retirement plan, or nonexistent, there’s plenty to stress you out.
Will people feel any better after Trump’s second year in office? A few things will help in 2026. The tax cuts Trump signed into law last summer will bring slightly bigger tax refunds to some Americans. Others will benefit from new provisions limiting taxes on some tip income, overtime pay and pension payouts.
Many other taxpayers won’t notice much of a difference. Trump has announced a slew of plans to make housing, credit and food more affordable, but without Congressional action—which is unlikely—they’ll lack teeth. Besides, a president can’t just pass orders that widely improve living standards. Trump certainly would, if he could. The meh economy will likely be here for a while.
I agree Rick but, but there is more here than just the bare figures of the economy.This is up or this is down. The real fact is if you have any sense at all we are becoming a country that has no allies.Trump alienates every country he comes in contact with and, i no for a fact the USA can not stand alone even if the dollar is still i guess the world's first choice.Gold an Silver will bring the market down to size and in essence you will see the CME crash.This year will be the last big one for a while.