Judge the Iran war on the outcome, not on your view of Trump

If Iran becomes a more moderate country, it will be a huge win. Even if Trump is the one who does it.

As Americans try to process a once-unthinkable war with Iran, many are falling into predictable camps.

Supporters of President Trump are fist-pumping the death of the evil ayatollahs and celebrating the destruction of Iran’s military.

Trump critics abhor Trump’s go-it-alone gunslinging and his shifting rationale for the war, warning of disastrous consequences Trump hasn’t even contemplated.

Who’s right? Maybe all of the above.

There are certainly many unsettling aspects to the war Trump ordered starting on February 28. Trump has given at least five shifting justifications for the war, some of which are implausible. He said, for instance, that Iran posed an “imminent threat” to the American people, even though Iran is 6,500 miles from the US east coast and has no weapons that can travel that far. Nor has Trump presented any evidence that an Iran-sponsored terror attack targeting Americans was in the works. So he’s fudging on that.

But if Trump achieves even a couple of his stated goals, the war against Iran will probably be worth it. It may already be worth it. Iran under its theocratic government has been one of the most malign influences in the world, sponsoring several terror groups aiming to destroy Israel and providing badly needed weapons to Russia in its inhumane war against Ukraine. Many Iranian citizens despise their own government, which has wrecked what ought to be a prosperous economy and terrorized dissenters. Most of Iran’s neighbors would cheer the fall of the regime.

It’s always dicey to argue that ends justify means, but the region and the world will very likely be better off with fewer bloodthirsty mullahs sucking Iran dry in the service of hate and self-dealing. So yes, assassinate Iran’s diabolical warlords, wreck its missile and nuclear-weapons programs, sink its navy, and plink away at the ruthless Republican Guard units that run terrorist cells.

Also be mindful that Trump has taken the risk of this war upon himself, because he ordered it up without allies (other than Israel), without preparing Americans for any kind of cost or sacrifice, and of course without any consent from Congress. If the war goes well and Iran becomes less of a militant menace, millions will benefit, in Iran and beyond. If it goes poorly and metastasizes in ways Trump can’t control, Trump will bear the blame more or less alone.

(☝️Torpedo fired from a US submarine sinks an Iranian warship in the Indian Ocean. Source: US Dept. of Defense)

Like it or not, wars are judged not by how they start, but by how they end. The US invasion of Afghanistan in 2001 was considered a “just” and “necessary” war, because it was a direct response to the September 11 terror attacks on the United States. But few remember it that way. That’s because it ended in disaster in August of 2021, with the chaotic pullout of US forces and the suicide bombing that killed 13 American servicemembers. President Joe Biden’s approval rating plummeted and never recovered. The main failure, in retrospect, was classic mission creep that left the United States without a clear definition of victory or a prudent departure plan.

The Persian Gulf War in 1991 was cleaner, with a clearer objective, which was forcing Saddam Hussein’s forces out of Kuwait and destroying much of his military capability. Ground combat lasted just 100 hours, and combat forces began to leave the theater a few weeks after that, in what looked like a total victory. Even then, doubts remained about whether allied forces should have ousted Saddam or done more to protect vulnerable minorities Saddam later attacked in southern Iraq.

With the Iran war, Trump critics are feasting on the president’s usual peccadilloes: His dishonesty, his insincerity, his adolescent pomposity. There’s almost gleeful told-you-so-ism as Iran targets embassies and bases in the region, as if this proves Trump is an idiot. There’s also creamy-thick schadenfreude as MAGA voters who cheered Trump’s call for an end to foreign wars puzzle over Trump’s new turn as a militant interventionist. Some of these critics hope the war is a bust just because they want Trump to fail.

But it’s prudent to withhold judgment until something like an end state comes into view. And it’s not that far away, because if this war goes on for more than a few weeks, it will become the sort of forever war Trump vowed to avoid, and that will be the end state. Trump has maybe one month, max, to present something that looks like a defeated Iran, stripped of its terror and war-making capability and compliant with Trump’s most important demands.

That means Iran would give up its nuclear weapons program and be subject to repeat attacks, indefinitely, if it tries to rebuild. Same for ballistic missiles able to reach Israel and beyond. The terror attacks must end or the bombers return. As for regime change, that’s tougher, but demonstrated leniency toward ordinary citizens protesting disastrous economic policies is probably the starting point.

If Iran moderates, this war might look like a success, in one year, two years, even ten, when it really matters. If the war fails, and the costs outweigh the benefits, there won’t be any way for Trump to hide the disastrous consequences, which could include civil war in Iran that spills into neighboring countries, elevated oil prices indefinitely and ongoing terror attacks that might even hit US shores.

Polls are already emerging telling us what portion of Americans approve of the Iran war and what portion disapprove. If pollsters asked me, I’d tell them to check back in a month. At that point, if we win, I’ll be for the war, and if we don’t win, I’ll be against it. Either way, I’ll be glad Trump took the risk, rather than me.