Faithful readers know I place bets on prediction market Kalshi from time to time, to vet my intuition and spice up my analysis. What’s more fun than testing your ability to predict the news?
Okay, a lot of things are probably more fun than that. But the November 3 midterm elections are a huge event and I couldn’t resist. Everybody’s guessing about whether the polls will be accurate, how big the Blue Wave will be, and how President Trump will react if his Republican Party suffers grievous losses, as many expect. I put a few bucks behind my own guesses.
Each bet was a $10 wager. I’m trying to bet with my brain, not my heart, so these are not necessarily the outcomes I prefer. I’ll explain my rationale for each.
Bet 1. Democrats will end up with between 238 and 241 House seats. Odds: 14%. Payout on $10: Up to $72.46. If I’m right, this will represent a substantial Democratic majority in the House. The odds are low because it’s a narrow range, but this is actually a conventional bet. The University of Virginia’s Center for Politics estimates that based on current polling, Democrats should pick up 24 seats, for a total next year of 239. That happens to be Kalshi’s median forecast for the Democratic majority, as well.
Bet 2. Democrats will end up with 50 Senate seats next year. Odds: 12%. Payout on $10: Up to $78.46. With apologies to my Democratic friends, I’m one of the doubters who simply finds it hard to believe Democrats can flip four Republican seats while holding all of theirs. A 50-50 Senate tie would give Republicans de facto control because Vice President JD Vance would be able to cast tie-breaking votes. I hope I’m wrong about this because I’d like to see a Democratic Senate that conducts thorough oversight of the Trump administration and refuses to approve horrible Cabinet nominees such as Pete Hegseth, Kash Patel, and Todd Blanche.
[Related: 12 Trump election swindles to watch for]