The Point, 7.11.2026: One thing that's not back to normal

Oil prices have plunged during recent weeks, but interest rates haven't. That could be telling us three different things.

You don’t need to follow financial news every day to keep up with markets and the economy. You just need a sharp weekly summary of what really matters. Here’s The Point:

Markets are normalizing as the US-Iran war morphs into a series of occasional flare-ups and tankers speed through the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices are almost back to pre-war levels. Inflation is likely to drop. The stock market is once again consumed with the artificial-intelligence buildout, rather than geopolitics.

But interest rates remain curiously high. The 10-year Treasury, which sets the rates on most business and consumer loans, is at around 4.5%, more than half a point higher than it was before the war. Mortgage rates are near 6.5%, also half a point higher than pre-war levels. Unlike oil prices, rates have gone up and stayed up.

What is that telling us?

The bond market is the grown-up of the investing world, rationally processing data amid exuberance or panic in the stock market. It could be sending three different messages.