What matters today: War on Venezuela

Plus: Should Ukraine assassinate Putin?

Hello, friends. I’ve gotten good feedback on my Saturday newsletters digesting the week’s events, so I’m starting a more frequent version that will be shorter and usually focus on just one or two topics. Your feedback helps me decide what smart readers want, so please keep it coming.

Two issues today: The Trump-ordered strike on a dock in Venezuela and Russia’s claim that Ukraine tried to assassinate its Dear Leader Vladimir Putin.

Is the United States at war with Venezuela? In a technical sense, it appears so. President Trump has escalated military activity in the region by reportedly ordering the bombing of some kind of dock or port facility on a remote part of the Venezuelan coast. Unlike the attacks on boats in open waters, this would be an unmistakable strike on Venezuela itself.

But it probably doesn’t signal that anything like a US ground invasion is coming. In fact, there’s an element of timidity in the dock strike. The Pentagon, for instance, has publicized most of the boat strikes and even posted videos of the boats exploding. That’s probably meant to intimidate anybody else thinking about taking some cocaine for a cruise.

The Pentagon didn’t say anything about the dock strike or post any video of the bombing, which apparently took place December 24. Trump said on December 29 that the US military had hit a “big facility” in Venezuela where drug runners load boats, without providing much detail. CNN and other news organizations dug up more info and published it a day later.

So there was no public mention of the dock attack until five days after it happened, and the Trump people are being cagey about it. Why? Maybe the Trump team was worried about blowback for attacking a sovereign nation. Maybe something went wrong that they hope to obscure. Maybe the dock is some dilapidated fishing pier that hardly warrants an American bomb. Intrepid journalists are probably heading there now to let us know.

But if the whole point of the Venezuela campaign is to oust dictator Nicolás Maduro—as appears to be the case— secret attacks far from his seat of power don’t make a lot of sense. They pose no direct threat to Maduro and don’t undermine his support within the country if nobody knows about them. Something seems off.

It’s easy—probably way too easy—for the United States to drop bombs from drones on a basket-case country with minimal air defenses and few friends around the world. Trump, so far, is conducting the type of campaign some air strategists deride as “plinking,” or swatting at a few targets here and there with no overarching plan. That could go on for months without affecting Maduro’s hold on power.

Trump’s effort to interdicting the money Maduro gets from oil sales and drug shipments might be smarter, and Maduro certainly has vulnerabilities. Foreign-policy guru David Ignatius of the Washington Post thinks Maduro will be gone by the end of 2026, probably cooling his jets in Cuba. Maduro is a criminal and thug and few would rue his demise. The question is at what cost. Trump must be noodling that daily.

Should Ukraine try to assassinate Putin? There’s a fake debate playing out over some Russian propaganda claiming that Ukraine tried to assassinate Russian president Vladimir Putin in a drone attack on one of his residences. Ukraine says no, it wasn’t us. This flap arises as Russia and Ukraine are both trying to gain Trump’s favor in peace talks meant to end the war, which they almost certainly won’t.

Everybody would be laughing off the Russian claim except that Trump himself actually seems to believe it, given that his buddy Putin told him personally and why would Putin lie?

Here’s what nobody is saying: If Ukraine could assassinate Putin it certainly would. But drone strikes on a residence won’t get it done, and Ukraine knows that. Putin is one of the world’s most protected men, with food tasters, body doubles and a vast security apparatus just for his personal protection. He’s a hardened target.

Ukraine has assassinated other Russian officials associated with the war Russia launched in 2022. Russia, for its part, has tried to assassinate Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelensky. That should leave little doubt that Ukraine would kill Putin if it got the chance, especially since that would be the single best way to end the war. And Ukraine would never ask Trump’s permission to do that.

But don’t expect it to happen, given how difficult it would be. Nor is peace likely any time soon. This war will continue until Putin—who started it—decides it’s time to end it.