What mattered this week: AI blahs, Full Epstein, Ukraine capitulation plan

Plus, the jobs report is back, but actual jobs, not so much

THE TOP 5:

Bubble worries grow. AI-bellwether Nvidia reported blockbuster earnings on November 19—as usual—but this time, it didn’t propel the entire stock market upward. Tech stocks actually fell the following day, as did Nvidia’s own share price. The artificial intelligence boom is taking a breather, and there are some signs that a speculative bubble might be deflating.

The tech-heavy NASDAQ index is down 7.3% from its record close on October 29. Nvidia is down 13.6% since then. Nvidia became the first $5 trillion company on October 29, but it only spent two days above that threshold. It’s now worth a *mere* $4.4 trillion.

Nvidia itself isn’t the concern. The company is booking revenue and profit that are off the charts. But some of the companies buying its chips aren’t profitable at all, and may never be. Bigwigs such as Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio say there’s a bubble, and there’s no dispute that stock valuations are extremely high. A 10% correction in stocks wouldn’t be anything to worry about. But if a selloff that exposes poorly capitalized companies suddenly going bust, that could produce much steeper losses.

Corollary: Bitcoin has lost one-third of its value since early October, plunging from an all-time high of more than $126,000 to around $84,000. Some big holders appear to be selling, plus Bitcoin tends to move in the same direction as risk assets such as stocks—except more violently.

[More: A step-by-step guide to the AI bubble]

Jobs return. Well, the jobs report returned, after the government shutdown interrupted two editions of the Labor Department’s monthly data release. The job market itself is meh. The delayed numbers for September show employers created 119,000 jobs. The headlines played up the fact that this was more than twice what economists had forecast. The Pinpoint view is, so what? Most ordinary people couldn’t care less whether job creation exceeds forecasts. What they care about is how secure they feel in their own job. And that trend is worsening.

Job growth in 2025 is averaging about half the 2024 average. The pace during the last three months is less than one-fourth the 2024 average. The chart below lays it out.

Pundits argued that the “strong” jobs report for September could prevent the Federal Reserve from cutting rates by another quarter-point at its next meeting in December. But that could be wrong, too. Job growth isn’t strong, and a December rate cut will probably be a close call.

There will be no jobs report for October, because the government survey-takers were furloughed while Congress dickered over funding the government. There won’t be an inflation report for October, either. The historical data will include asterisks to remind us all of our incompetent leaders.

[More: You’re not imagining it, the job market is weakening]

The Full Epstein is coming. Congress passed, and President Trump signed, a measure requiring the Justice Dept. to release everything it has on the dead sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. Trump doesn’t want this material out, but he played along when it became clear Congress was going to vote for release, whether he wanted it or not. The Epstein scandal has gotten away from Trump and become so explosive that his own supporters are going against his wishes and pushing for release. They’re afraid that a tidal wave of outrage over Epstein will drown anybody who appears to abet the “conspiracy” by keeping it secret.

The main unanswered question is whether Trump himself had any kind of sexual encounter with the underage teenagers Epstein basically kept as sex slaves. Does this matter beyond the lurid spectacle of it all? In one way, yes. Trump’s dodging on Epstein has put him at odds with his own base, who see the Epstein universe as exactly the type of quasicriminal elites Trump ran against while winning two presidential elections. This may be the moment when Trump’s ironclad hold on his base cracks, weakening his political capital and making it harder to steamroll his agenda through Congress or the courts.

The irony for Trump is that the Justice Dept. can’t provide everything it has on Epstein. Grand jury information is protected, as is anything identifying victims or people investigated but not charged. The public “Epstein files” will always be incomplete, which means the conspiracy theorists will always be sure there is one.

[More: Trump-Epstein saga: The short guide]

Ukraine capitulation plan. Trump’s negotiators have supposedly proposed a “peace” plan for the Russia-Ukraine war that would force Ukraine to make major concessions in exchange for, well, not much. Trump’s team worked with the Russians—but not the Ukrainians—on a deal in which Ukraine would give up territory, demobilize some of its military and stop fighting. Russia would “pledge” to end the war. It’s kind of like two gangsters negotiating a deal in which you agree to sell them your house for a 50% discount.

Trump wants credit for “ending” the war, and he doesn’t really care about the details. But this kind of deal probably wouldn’t end the war. It would create the conditions for Russia to continue nibbling away at Ukraine without the armed opposition it faces now. Russian dictator Vladimir Putin is an epic liar. Virtually every Russia expert says it would be foolish to take his word on anything. Ukraine, European leaders and many members of Congress are against Trump’s plan. Trump has set Thanksgiving as the deadline for Ukraine to take it or leave it, but that’s also a deadline for the plan’s opponents to rally against it and shoot it down.

This war might seem like it’s at a standstill, but there’s a lot going on. Ukraine has been mounting some effective attacks inside Russia, for one thing, and has begun using American ATACMS missiles in those attacks. President Biden wouldn’t let Ukraine do that. Trump obviously has. One place to get quick, plain-English updates on the biggest war in Europe since 1945 is the Council on Foreign Relations Global Conflict Tracker. I have it bookmarked.

Congress is even worse than you thought. Turns out some Republican senators snuck a provision into the legislation reopening the government that would allow them to sue the Justice Dept. for millions of dollars in damages because they had to comply with the Biden-era investigation into whether Trump interfered with the 2020 election. If they sue and win, taxpayers would pay their damage fees.

Only eight Republicans would benefit: Lindsey Graham (SC), Bill Hagerty (TN), Josh Hawley (MO), Dan Sullivan (AK), Tommy Tuberville (AL), Ron Johnson (WI), Cynthia Lummis (WY), and Marsha Blackburn (TN). They had to turn over cell phone information to special counsel Jack Smith, who investigated whether Trump interfered in the 2020 election. That investigation was live when Trump took office and could very well have produced convictions. Trump shut it down.

Now these masters of grievance say they should be compensated for the inconvenience of cooperating with a federal criminal investigation, which is something no ordinary citizen would ever get away with. As if the privileges of being a senator aren’t enough. If you can bear the nausea, CNN has a good summary. There’s a push to repeal this abomination, if people stay angry enough.

[More: The shutdown showed why everybody hates Congress]

~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~

WHAT WILL MATTER NEXT WEEK:

Thanksgiving dinner will cost a little bit less than it did last year, mainly because it’s turkey and not beef. This is a factoid the American Farm Bureau rolls out every year, earnestly reported throughout the media. This always seems goofy to me because Thanksgiving is a very economical meal to start with, and not representative of the way we eat all the other days. A bunch of people eat from one turkey, with other staples like potatoes and stuffing, which is basically bread, and it can even be stale bread, if you’re scrimping.

At any rate, over at the Farm Bureau, they mostly cook with processed stuff such as premade stuffing mix (which costs 9% less this year), frozen pie crusts (down 0.8%) and canned pumpkin-pie mix (up 0.1%). They use a frozen turkey—down 16.3%—which is where the big savings come from.

If you want to chat about food inflation during the big repast, here are some factoids you can use. Year over year change in the cost of:

All grocery items: 2.7%

Turkey, all forms: 0.6%

Potatoes: 3.7%

Bread: 1.8%

Wine: -1.2% 👏👏👏

Restaurant meals: 3.7%

Ground beef: 12.9%

Steak: 16.6%

Coffee: 18.9%

Skip the coffee and pour another glass of wine. Cheers!

Black Friday sales will probably be solid, and hopefully nobody will get crushed in a doorbuster stampede. The National Retail Federation expects holiday sales to top $1 trillion for the first time ever this year, with annual growth in spending of around 4%. That’s fine.

It’s worth noting that Trump’s new tariffs don’t seem poised to wreck Christmas, as some critics predicted they would. Some specialty items could be harder to find or more expensive. Christmas decorations, largely made overseas, could be costlier. But American importers have been adept at adjusting supply chains and making other moves to keep Americans stocked. Plus, Trump has backed down on many new import taxes that would have hit consumers hardest. If you do find prices too high, here’s a thought: Buy less. The kids will survive.

Happy Thanksgiving. I won’t clog your inbox with banal Turkey Day ruminations, but I am grateful for everybody who’s helping me build The Pinpoint Press.