The real lesson of the 2025 elections: No geezers!
The big winners for Democrats this year included one Millennial and two Gen Xers. Maybe the Biden era is finally ending.
The Democratic party is not dead yet. Some analysts think it’s even undergoing a revival. 🤔
Democrats romped in off-year elections for New York City mayor, plus the governorships of New Jersey and Virginia. Those three marquee winners did better than polls predicted. Democrats also did well in some 120 other nationwide elections. Analyst Nate Silver called it a 10-out-of-10 night for Democrats.
What does it all mean? Take your pick from an endless array of speculation and spin. Commentator Matt Yglesias has 13 takeaways, such as low turnout typical in off-year elections tends to help Democrats. Republican strategist Karl Rove argues that President Trump’s growing unpopularity boosted Democrats. Trump himself blamed Republican losses on the month-long government shutdown.
Some or all of that may be true. Operatives for both parties will comb the data to death leading up to next year’s midterm elections, seeking the slightest edge over the other side as both parties battle for control of Congress.
But there are also a few obvious lessons for both parties that you don’t need a political science degree to comprehend. Here are three:
Democrats won because they didn’t field geezers or retreads. Zohran Mamdani, who won the New York City mayor’s race, is 34, and as youthfully exuberant as his age suggests. Abigail Spanberger, the next Virginia governor, is 46. Mikie Sherrill, who won the governor’s race in New Jersey, is 53. That’s one Millennial, two Gen Xers … and no baby boomers!
The United States has had a baby-boomer president for the last 32 years. Joe Biden suggested he’d pass the torch to a new generation, but then pulled a fast one on voters in 2024 and decided to run again. That misstep put his frailties on full view and opened the door for Trump to extend the boomers’ reign over the White House for another four years. Americans clearly want younger leadership, and Democrats finally offered that.
Oh, there was one prominent retread in the NYC mayoral race: Andrew Cuomo, the 67-year-old former governor of the state. He ran a tired campaign with no coherent theme and lost by 8 points to a noob nobody had heard of a year ago.
Pragmatism. Spanberger and Sherrill both have congressional cred as moderates focused on pocketbook issues ordinary Americans care about. Sherrill beat two more liberal candidates in the New Jersey Democratic primary. She won the governor’s race by focusing on high utility costs and other affordability issues. Spanberger did much the same, arguing that Trump is mishandling the economy and raising costs for Virginians. Neither candidate played up social or cultural issues, green energy or other pet causes of the Democrats’ liberal wing.
Authenticity. Mamdani, by contrast, certainly did not win the NYC mayor’s race because of his moderate views or pragmatism. He’s an avowed “democratic socialist” who wants to hike taxes on the wealthy to pay for a wish list of expensive goodies, such as no-cost childcare and free buses. But Mamdani has a buoyant personality that shines in the many social media posts where he’s interacting with ordinary New Yorkers on the streets of their own neighborhoods. His defiant optimism gives New Yorkers a reason to feel good. It might not last, but Mamdani was a pick-me-up compared with the sour, imperious Cuomo.
Despite their encouraging sweep, Democrats remain confuzzled about what the 2025 elections can teach them about how to hone their message and establish their identity for the big battles of 2026. They worry that Mamdani’s socialism will tar the whole party, but also that they’ll miss out on some magic touch he was with voters—young ones, especially—if they (continue to) shun him.
Maybe it’s not that complicated. New York City is a universe unto itself, and Democrats shouldn’t have that much trouble explaining that what happens in New York stays in New York.
As for the swing states and districts where Democrats need to make headway, it’s a good bet those voters will welcome plainspoken candidates who sound like normal people, know what it takes to manage a household budget and aren’t oldsters muttering party proverbs. The best thing Democrats can probably do is give the messaging a rest and find candidates who don’t need a script to connect with voters.