Pencil in May 1 as the Hormuz Strait reopening date

President Trump set absurd expectations for how long this complex mission would take. Yet progress is underway.

The entire world is watching the Strait of Hormuz and wondering what’s taking so long to get oil flowing through the crucial chokepoint at the mouth of the Persian Gulf, which Iran controls.

That’s because President Trump, since launching the war with Iran on February 28, has repeatedly sent the message that the conflict will be short, and reopening the strait a snap. Trump himself created the expectation that disruptions will be temporary and relatively small, with everything back to normal before long.

In reality, Trump unleashed a maelstrom that challenges even the world’s most powerful military. Yet US forces are working the problem, and making progress toward reopening the strait. If Trump had set a two- or three-month timeframe for getting the oil flowing again, it might have calmed jittery markets and given everybody a realistic sense of what to expect.

The Strait of Hormuz, which is normally a passageway for 20% of global oil supplies, is just 21 miles wide at its narrowest point. The shipping lanes able to handle huge oil tankers are narrower still. Iran has numerous weapons able to damage or sink ships, including missiles, drones, rockets, attack boats and waterborne mines. It has already struck more than a dozen ships in and around the gulf, and threatened more attacks, effectively stopping most oil shipment out of the region. Oil prices have jumped 40% since the war began.

Navy warships have many defenses against the type of threats Iran poses, but they’re not an impenetrable shield. And it would only take one lucky shot by Iran to hit a tanker and possibly cause more turmoil in energy markets are already under stress.