Pinpoint Intel, 03.28.26: Shaky wartime president sinks stocks

Plus, how to make $90 million off a Trump tweet

WHAT MATTERED THIS WEEK:

Trump bombs. President Trump, it turns out, is a dreadful wartime president, lying repeatedly about the progress of the Iran war, dismissing the turmoil it’s causing, and doing less than nothing to steel the nation for sacrifice.

Trump’s flailing is evident, for example, in his empty threat to bomb Iran’s electrical infrastructure, which would be a war crime and probably accomplish nothing, militarily. Trump first threatened to do this on March 21. Then he “postponed” the attack until March 27. Then he “postponed” it again until April 6, and as April 6 approaches, he is sure to “postpone” it again. There is no grid attack. If there were, it would probably trigger a number of resignations in the military chain of command by people who felt they were being asked to carry out an illegal order. Amateurism doesn’t get much ranker than this.

Oh wait, it does! Trump also demonstrated total ignorance of global energy markets by saying “we don’t need the Strait of Hormuz,” as if America can fence off its oil from the rest of the world and make itself immune to global price hikes. It can’t. The United States actually does need the Strait of Hormuz, and the worst possible time to learn this lesson is after you’ve launched a war that effectively closed it and pushed the price of oil above $110 per barrel.

There’s more, because Trump always goes lower. But try not to despair. The good news is that the military commanders and the troops seem to be doing an excellent job managing the Iran war at the operational level, even as the civilian bosses bungle. Adm. Brad Cooper, the Central Command officer running the war, is the anti-Trump, a calm professional who explains military progress in the war with zero braggadocio in occasional video updates . If things were going badly, Cooper probably wouldn’t tell us, yet his steady focus suggests yes, there are some adults in the room, somewhere.

Trump has done a comically bad job explaining what this war is about. Unlike Trump, however, military plans are methodical, phased, and layered, and there’s a logic to the course of the Iran war if you listen to retired military officers and knowledgeable strategists.