Higher for longer. That phrase normally applies to interest rates, but now it’s oil and other commodities that could remain uncomfortably high, indefinitely. The Dallas Federal Reserve ran a spot survey in mid-April, asking executives at energy firms when they expect tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz to normalize. Of 120 responses, 20% said things would get back to normal by May. But 79% said it would be August or later, including 14% who said it wouldn’t happen until after November.
Markets are coming around to the idea that the Iran war President Trump launched on February 28 will keep the Persian Gulf bottled up for months. There are twin blockades in the Gulf, with US forces interdicting some Iranian oil exports and Iran still blocking most tanker traffic through the strait. Pentagon officials told Congress recently that it could take six months to remove Iranian mines in the strait, a process that hasn’t even started yet.
“Gasoline and oil prices, by implication, will stay elevated through the midterm elections,” economist Tracy Shuchart of NinjaTrader wrote on April 24. “Six months is not an aggressive estimate. It is the best case.”
