You don’t need to follow financial news every day to keep up with markets. You just need a sharp weekly summary of what really matters. Here’s The Point:
If the only news you got were a couple of charts, you’d have a pretty good idea what’s happening with the Iran war. Maybe even better than any message you could divine from President Trump’s erratic pronouncements.
Markets are plainly pricing in the end of the Iran war. Oil prices are down, gasoline prices are falling, and stocks are rising as if everything’s fine.
The war is not over, in reality. There is still virtually no tanker traffic passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Global oil production has dropped by about 15%, which is a huge hit to supply. US and Iranian negotiators seem to be talking, but the most they seem likely to accomplish is a continuation of the status quo. Bombs aren’t flying, but oil isn’t flowing, either.