Give Mamdani a chance. NYC will survive his “communism”
Four years from now, much of Mamdani's socialist agenda will still be a wish list.
There are two likely outcomes of the November 4 mayoral election in New York City. One is that Democratic Socialist Zohran Mamdani will win, becoming the first Muslim to lead a major American city. The other is that the right-wing outrage machine will kick into overdrive, trying to tar Mamdani with every smear that might possibly stick during the next four years.
The 34-year-old Mamdani is a lightning rod because he’s a Bernie Sanders disciple daring to deploy a socialist agenda in the American cradle of capitalism. New York business leaders freaked out when Mamdani won the Democratic primary election on June 24, as if Karl Marx were suddenly the frontrunner. President Trump calls Mamdami a “communist.” Florida real-estate brokers report a surge of interest from wealthy New Yorkers desperate to flee Mamdani and his soak-the-rich agenda.
Everybody should calm down about Mamdani. Or better yet, apply to Mamdami the critique often applied to Trump: Take him seriously, but not literally.
Mamdani, currently a state assemblyman, has six prominent campaign pledges:
☭ Institute free childcare for kids up to age 6
☭ Raise the city’s minimum wage to $30 per hour
☭ Freeze the rent on the city’s 1 million rent-stabilized apartments
☭ Make all the city’s buses free
☭ Open five city-owned grocery stores selling staples at wholesale prices
☭ Raise taxes on businesses and the wealthy to pay for this lavish agenda
Mamdani is winning because he’s nailing an issue voters care deeply about: Affordability. This obviously has national implications, which is the main reason I’m interested in Mamdani. I live in New York state, but not New York City, so I can’t vote for Mamdani and I have no stake in the mayor’s race. I’m also a lifelong Independent affiliated with no political party. But as a journalist, I’ve covered the bout of inflation that pounded many American families during the last four years. Affordability concerns helped Trump win the White House in 2024, and Mamdani’s ascent may be another tremor triggered by the affordability crisis.
Many Democratic politicians are afraid to endorse an unproven socialist, but that will change if Mamdani’s program becomes popular. Mamdani is also cheerful and charismatic, and unlike many Democrats, he seems like a real person. If he succeeds as New York mayor, that won’t be the last office he guns for.
Mamdani is also smart enough to know that no elected official accomplishes everything promised during a campaign. The best pols might be able to tout one or two marquee accomplishments and persuade voters to focus on the wins. So the real question about Mamdani is whether he’ll move the needle on affordability enough to convince New Yorkers that taking a chance on him was worth it.
The first barrier to the Full Mamdani are those tax hikes. New York State must approve most tax hikes affecting city residents and businesses, and Gov. Kathy Hochul, a Democrat, says she won’t sign off on them. Hochul’s up for reelection next year, so that could change if another candidate upsets her in the primary. But the starting point for Mamdani’s wish list is that the revenue he needs simply isn’t there. The socialist agenda has a built-in escape hatch.
Mamdani, who once advocated “defund the police,” could push for cuts in law enforcement funding or other programs and shift the money over to his favored causes. But he can’t do that on his own, either. Plus, Mamdani says he has changed his anti-cop views, which would be prudent given that “defund the police” was a political loser. Mamdani now says he’d keep police staffing at current levels.
So where would that leave Mamdani’s socialist agenda? Conservatives say it’s mostly a pipe dream, while liberals say it’s about time. As usual, reality is in the middle. Here are some predictions for how Mamdani’s campaign promises will look four years from now.
Universal child care. This is the costliest of Mamdani’s big ideas, with a price tag of about $6 billion per year, in an annual budget of $116 billion. It would also be an extremely complicated program. Mayor Mamdani might be able to establish some pilot programs, but this is too expensive and complex to get very far in four years.
$30 minimum wage. NYC’s minimum wage is now $16.50, so Mamdani would nearly double it. But $30 is an opening bid. Maybe in four years it’ll be $18. Maybe $20.
Rent freeze. This wouldn’t cost the city anything, and Mamdani will probably do it. Former Mayor Bill de Blasio implemented three rent freezes, so there’s precedent. But there are also tradeoffs. Landlords have less incentive to modernize their buildings if they can’t raise the rent. Tenants are more likely to stay put, making it harder for new renters to find units. A rent freeze isn’t automatically a quality-of-life improvement.
Free buses. This would cost between $600 million and $800 million, making it more plausible than universal childcare. It might be possible to scrounge that funding, especially if Mamdani puts free childcare on the back burner. And Mamdani might be smart to make free buses a signature accomplishment. Nearly half of NYC bus riders already evade the fare. Free buses would operate faster, since riders could board at all doors and there’d be no money to collect. And implementing it wouldn’t require a complex new system, since Mamdani’s free buses would run on the same routes as the current semi-free buses.
City owned grocery stores. Let him try! They’ll probably flop, given that regular grocers are already very efficient, with low margins that prove they’re not really gouging anybody. But there are also some parts of NYC that don’t have good grocery stores, and Mamdani has certainly trudged through some of them in a peripatetic campaign that has contributed to his popularity. Maybe the ultimate outcome will be a deal with Walmart to bring those famous everyday low prices to parts of NYC that could really use them.
However this plays out, Trump, Fox News and crotchety right will be mocking the novice mayor and hooting at his galling idealism. But New Yorkers don’t usually care what the many critics of their city think. If New Yorkers feel better off four years from now, Mamdani’s brand of socialism might not seem so repugnant after all.
Vectors v chiseled reality ~ hope you don't mind if I borrow that!
Great context Rick. I tend to agree that the promises here are vectors, not chiselled reality.