The Point, 7.5.2026: Too much Fedspeak, by everybody

Inflation is coming down and the Federal Reserve probably won't change interest rates for months. So let's talk about something else.

You don’t need to follow financial news every day to keep up with markets and the economy. You just need a sharp weekly summary of what really matters. Here’s The Point:

What will the Federal Reserve do? Wall Street obsesses over this and if you watch financial news, you’ll see 27 opinions per day on whether the Fed will raise interest rates, lower them, or take other arcane steps to stimulate the economy.

What if the Fed does nothing for a while? There’d be a lot less to talk about, but markets wouldn’t mind and businesses could stop worrying about at least one thing they have no control over. It’s possible that longer-term rates on car loans, mortgages, and personal loans might gradually drift down, with no prodding by any central bank.

This might be exactly what happens for the rest of 2026. There’s been a jarring change in expectations for interest rates this year. In January, investors expected rate cuts, as a mild form of stimulus to guard against a weakening job market. But then the Iran war sent inflation higher and the outlook shifted to rate hikes, since that’s how the Fed fights rising prices.

[The Weekly WTF: Icky presidential bedroom]

Now, it’s starting to look like the Fed won’t change rates at all this year. The biggest factor is the sharp decline in oil prices, as the US-Iran war has morphed into a shaky ceasefire and oil tankers have once again started transiting the Strait of Hormuz.