All my trades on the prediction market Kalshi

This is a rolling tally of the trades I’ve placed in the prediction market Kalshi. Each trade is $10 unless otherwise noted.

Kirsti Noem. She will leave her job as Secretary of the Dept. of Homeland Defense by May 1. Bet placed: February 17, 2026. Odds: 24%. Payout: $41. Outcome: Pending.

Trump state of the union speech. It will not include the words “ICE” or “National Guard.” Bet placed: February 17, 2026. Odds: 13%. Payout: $72. Outcome: Pending delivery of the speech on February 24.

Trump emergency tariffs. The Supreme Court will rule them illegal with three justices voting against the majority to keep them in place. Bet placed: February 17, 2026. Odds: 30%. Payout: $30. Outcome: Pending delivery of the decision, date unknown.

February jobs report. Total jobs created will be less than 40,000 for the month. Bet placed: February 17, 2026. Odds: 24%. Payout: $39. Outcome: Pending publication of the February jobs report on March 6 at 8:30 am ET.