~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~

Here’s what’s new on The Matterboard:

PAY ATTENTION ⚠️

Iran simmers. President Trump mentioned Iran at least 20 times on social media during the last week—yet nothing has changed. Brent crude remains close to $100 per barrel, with gas and diesel prices far higher than they were when Trump took office. The war that Trump said would last a few weeks is now in its eighth month.

Blue wave odds remain high. The Kalshi odds of a Democratic sweep in the November midterm elections remain around 62%. The respected Cook Political Report recently shifted its forecasts for 15 House races toward Democrats, which would give them control of the House. Democrat Sherrod Brown now looks like he could win a Republican-controlled Senate seat in Ohio.

[5 things to expect if Democrats win in November]

Research firm Veda Partners predicts that Brown will win in Ohio, but that Republicans will hold onto tightly contested Senate seats in Alaska, Texas, Maine, Iowa and Kansas. That would leave the GOP with 51 seats and Senate control. If Dems win Ohio plus two other states and don’t lose Michigan, they’ll take the Senate.

We reiterate that midterm polling is sketchy and often wrong.

MIGHT GET SPICY 🤔

Terrorism threats seem intense. The pilot who nearly hijacked a FlyDubai passenger jet heading from Dubai to Tel Aviv on Sept. 30 might have flown it into an Israeli building or population center if he had succeeded—like a mini 9-11 attack. Remarkable action by the second pilot and some of the passengers prevented a major catastrophe and the death of more than 170 aboard the plane.

There was a weird event in the UK on Sept. 27 in which five men were arrested near a British air base that hosts US jets—then released. Prime Minister Andy Burnham says Iran might have been involved in … whatever was going on, which is still not publicly known. The obvious implication is that somebody affiliated with Iran was trying to harm US troops or sabotage US planes or other equipment. Why the UK released the suspects, then said they might be linked with Iran, is a puzzle.

Recall that there may have been an Iranian effort to shoot down Air Force One with Trump aboard when he was in Turkey in July. Iran is a well-known sponsor of terrorism and is almost certainly looking for ways to attack Americans or American interests. If one such attack succeeds, it won’t be a one-time event. It will trigger US retaliation and second- and third-order effects that are hard to predict.

[I placed a bet on falling oil prices]

Jerome Powell wins another round. The former Federal Reserve chair did nothing wrong in association with the renovation of Fed headquarters, according to the central bank’s inspector general. Nobody thought Powell did anything wrong—except Trump, who was looking for ways to force Powell out of the job before his tenure ended in May. The vindication of Powell is a win for Fed independence and for markets.

Maybe reputable auditors should investigate Trump’s handling of the Kennedy Center, the White House ballroom, the reflecting pool, and other DC landmarks and see if Trump abides by the same standards as Powell.

Interest rates under Trump have hit the highest levels in more than 20 years. The benchmark 10-year Treasury rate is at 5.29%, the highest since 2002. The average rate on a 30-year mortgage is now 7.3%, up 1.3 percentage points since the Iran war started in February. That adds $175 to the monthly payment on a $400,000 mortgage, or an extra $2,000 per year.

[How to make money on rising interest rates]

Trump might invoke the Insurrection Act to cheat in the midterms. In an interview with Time, Trump said, “I could use it. A lot of people think I should use it.” There is no insurrection and there won’t be one on Election Day. And the only people who think Trump should invoke the 1807 law are the dictator-class mandarins who shine Trump’s shoes. Trump might just be trolling his many critics, but voters should be prepared for just about anything come November.

RESULTS MAY VARY 🤷‍♂️

The impeachment of Pete Hegseth won’t come until at least November, when the midterms are over. But he keeps providing fresh material for inquisitors. In a “state of the force” speech, the incompetent defense secretary said his department will create an “office of religious affairs” that will “report straight to the top.” Report on what? Compliance with some religious code? As a reminder, Hegseth is running a war AGAINST A THEOCRACY. And running it incredibly badly.

Hegseth also said Elon Musk will help run a new project on the future of warfare. Is there anybody in America who really wants more Elon Musk? Anybody?

AI firms will self-police as the best way to assure their groundbreaking new technology doesn’t destroy humanity. That’s the pledge the leaders of AI firms such as Meta, OpenAI, Anthropic, Nvidia made at a meeting with Trump on September 29. Feel better? Neither does anybody else.

SAFELY IGNORE 🚫

The United States got two new pandas from China. These are the “envoys of friendship” Chinese dictator Xi Jinping promised to deliver when he met with Trump last week. The pandas will reside at the Atlanta Zoo. More pandas are better than fewer. But they won’t stop China from stealing western technology, menacing Taiwan, or making all the other types of trouble it has become adept at.

Trump’s ban on some Canadian imports went into effect September 29. The blacklist includes certain types of alcohol, motorcycles and dairy products. You probably won’t notice, but thousands of dumb trivialities add up to one dumb monstrosity of a trade war.

[The Weekly WTF: America’s worst TV channel]

JB Pritzker lost 80 pounds, and it might be a political issue. The Democratic governor of Illinois is likely to run for president in 2028, and political analysts are debating whether his dramatic weight loss from the use of GLP-1 drugs is an asset or liability, candidate-wise. Pro: Using GLP-1s to control a lifelong weight problem linked with diabetes makes Pritzker relatable. Con: It seems like he’s sculpting a phony image.

We’re bullish on the dramatic improvement GLP-1s can bring to the health and lifestyle of millions. We’re agnostic on whether presidential candidates should use them to improve their electability. As for Pritzker, he’s the billionaire scion of the Hyatt hotel family, and we feel like there are enough billionaires running things. We’d prefer a qualified bootstrapper, no matter how much he or she might weigh.

Enjoy a cartoon.

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~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~

Here’s what’s new on The Matterboard:

PAY ATTENTION ⚠️

Iran war, ad infinitum. President Trump and the Iranian President, Masoud Pezeshkian, each gave windy speeches at the United Nations this week. Nothing changed. Everybody in America wants the Iran war to end, which is probably why Iran wants to keep it going. The war is so unpopular that House Speaker Mike Johnson—a top Trump ally—is now calling for an end to it. That’s meaningless, except it reveals that Republicans know Trump’s war is politically toxic to their party. Too bad. The Iran war is a disaster and Trump’s party deserves whatever drubbing it gets in November.

The likelihood of a blue wave in November is soaring. Prediction market Kalshi puts the odds of a Democratic midterm sweep—in which they win control of both the House and Senate—at more than 60%. The odds of Dems winning at least one chamber of Congress, allowing them to block the GOP legislative agenda, are 92%.

[5 things to expect if Democrats win in November]

These odds seem high. Midterm polling is notoriously unreliable and several improbable things would have to occur for Dems to win the Senate. Still, it’s undeniable that Trump has almost single-handedly reignited inflation and made many millions of voters worse off. Something momentous should happen in November.

Record-high diesel prices above $6.50 per gallon have led to the possibility of Trump banning the export of diesel fuel, on the premise that it would create more US supply and bring prices down. That could happen for a short time. But then it would probably backfire.

[Why voters are down on the Trump economy]

US refiners produce more diesel than Americans consume, mostly along the Gulf Coast. If they end up with more diesel than they can sell, they’ll cut capacity or devote it to something else, which would lower supply and put upward pressure on prices all over again. And if the US bans diesel exports, other countries might stop sending diesel (and winter heating fuel) to the northeastern United States and other parts of the country far from the Gulf Coast, which get energy cheaper from foreign suppliers than from Gulf Coast refineries. So you might end up with lower diesel prices near the Gulf Coast refineries and all sorts of problems everywhere else. (Here’s a good explainer.) A better idea than banning diesel exports: End the Iran war!

MIGHT GET SPICY 🤔

The American gestapo known as ICE immigration agents shot an unarmed DoorDash driver in the back in Austin, Texas on Sept. 22. The man was in his car when the ICE agent fired. The ICE shooter was issued a body camera but wasn’t wearing it. Another ICE officer was wearing a body camera but it didn’t capture the shooting. So as usual, subprofessional standards and no accountability for ICE. The victim may be an undocumented migrant ultimately deported by a judge. But shooting him is a human rights abuse. On the same day, ICE agents beat up a US citizen in suburban Chicago after confusing him with somebody they were seeking to arrest. After realizing their mistake, they left him on the ground for local police to tend to. He sustained injuries, went to the hospital, and will probably sue this rogue agency. ICE is a public menace. If we had anybody competent in charge, they’d gut the whole place and start from scratch under the tightest possible supervision.

Donald Trump Jr. must be hard up for money, because a Russian oligarch who’s a buddy of Russian dictator Vladimir Putin paid for part of his lavish wedding in the Bahamas in May. Now, several Republican members of Congress (along with every Democrat) want to investigate Don Jr.’s Russian ties. Sounds right. Congress exhaustively investigated Hunter Biden’s sweetheart deals in Ukraine. Don Jr.’s Russian connections are more ominous. Bring it.

Democrats filed a lawsuit meant to prevent Trump and his federal agents from interfering in the midterm elections, as Trump and other administration officials have suggested they might. The suit seeks court orders that would explicitly prohibit federal officials from monitoring voters, wearing tactical gear, brandishing weapons, peddling bullshit, or doing anything else that might intimidate voters near polling zones or ballot drop boxes up to or during Election Day on November 3.

Interest rates are spiking, with mortgages now averaging 7.25%, the highest level since 2023. The 2023 surge turned out to be a blip that lasted about four months, before rates fell below 7% again. That might not happen this time. Rates are rising because inflation has reignited, borrowers are starting to worry about the gigantic national debt, and a lot of corporate debt is now hitting the market to fund the AI buildout. If rates go much higher, it could ding stocks and maybe hurt the economy.

[How to profit from rising interest rates]

The punkish Pete Hegseth may face an impeachment effort in Congress once the November midterms wrap up. Some Republicans want to go after the Defense Secretary for his role as Trump’s Iran war enabler and all sorts of other turmoil he’s causing in the military. We called for Hegseth’s ouster all the way back in April. He’s profoundly unqualified for one of the most important jobs in government and capable of doing way more harm to the country than an incompetent Labor or Interior secretary.

[What the bond market wants you to know]

RESULTS MAY VARY 🤷‍♂️

Facebook parent Meta may have a hit. The company’s Muse AI app is the No. 1 download on Apple’s app store and it’s getting solid reviews for actually being useful. Muse is designed to do tasks for you, such as shop online. So instead of making suggestions, it goes the distance and handles purchases. Here’s one sign of its possible success: Amazon hates it, because if humans aren’t looking at Amazon, then Amazon is going to have a hard time selling ads and sponsored positions. Slate has this interesting review of Muse. (Has anybody tried it? Let me know what you think!)

SAFELY IGNORE 🚫

Trump hates the press because he can’t stand criticism, so he tried to ban CNN, MS Now and Politico from briefings and other activities at the White House. A judge said no, and after it looked like Trump might defy the order, the White House backed down and allowed access to the news agencies once again. The best part of this showdown is the solidarity other networks showed—including Fox News, which sometimes functions as a Trump PR organ—by refusing to participate in White House pool feeds. That left Trump without a microphone when he tried to give public remarks at the White House helipad on September 22. His lips moved, but nobody watching the White House’s own feed could hear what he said. We think this would make a great permanent arrangement.

Fresh measles cases in Pennsylvania bring the state’s 2026 tally to more than 800, including four deaths. Almost all cases involve unvaccinated people. Trump’s goofy Health Secretary, Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., has said those measles deaths may be fabricated, and the federal Centers for Disease Control won’t acknowledge them, either. When people are dying and you pretend it isn’t happening, you’ve gone mad.

The fancy meeting between Trump and China’s president-for-life, Xi Jinping, isn’t likely to produce any meaningful developments on trade, the pace of AI development, or the Iran war. But it did generate one thing: opprobrium among China hawks, including some Republicans, who thought Trump’s pampering of Xi was reprehensible, given that Xi’s government steals American business and military secrets and hopes to displace American influence in many parts of the world.

[How Trump softened up on China]

Trump signed a deal with Greenland that will prevent competing nations—including China!—from setting up shop on the strategically located island and allow greater use by the US military. That’s good. Why didn’t Trump just do that in the first place, without the needless drama of threatening to invade or annex Greenland?

The “triumphal arch” Trump wants to build near Washington, DC, will double as a storage silo for drones and ammo and serve as a perch for snipers, according to Trump. It’s a brilliant idea that might speed construction of the arch, since military installations bypass some zoning requirements. Alas, as a military project, the cost of the arch will promptly balloon to $40 billion, with subcontractors in every state and probably a taste for the Trump children, who are now defense contractors. Congressional audits will ensue, while cost overruns will generate lawsuits over who’s responsible for the delays. The whole project might not be finished until long after Trump leaves office.

Wouldn’t that be a shame.

Enjoy a cartoon.

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Here’s what’s new on The Matterboard:

PAY ATTENTION ⚠️

The Iran war has a new front, with Iranian proxies in Iraq attacking a Saudi oil pipeline and the Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen now blocking some oil shipments in the Red Sea. But there are also signs Persian Gulf petrostates working with US Central Command are finding new ways to move oil through the Strait of Hormuz and check Iranian efforts to control the vital waterway. Gulf nations are also rapidly building new ports, pipelines and other infrastructure as alternatives to waterborne shipping through Hormuz. Iran’s leverage may have peaked. More details here.

Record prices for diesel, however, will prolong the energy crunch and its inflationary effects. Diesel has hit a record high of $6.45 per gallon, and that will raise prices for food and just about any product shipped by truck. Diesel prices are spiking partly because of higher oil prices caused by the Iran war, and partly by other factors. Refining capacity is extremely tight and that’s contributing. The Russia-Ukraine war has impacted Russian supplies of diesel and other refined products. Experts could have forewarned that many of these things would happen when Trump started the Iran war all the way back in February. He didn’t bother consulting any of them.

Democratic blue wave? With the midterm elections less than two months away, we’ve added the possibility of a Democratic blue wave to the Matterboard. We don’t obsess over politics like a lot of media outlets that have been handicapping the possible outcomes for months. Yet the election is obviously important and it’s time to start digging into the details. The University of Virginia’s Center for Politics has some handy graphics showing the status of the battle for control of the House and Senate. Democratic takeover of the House seems likely, but a “wave” election in which they take 30 seats or more seems improbable due to the relatively small number of swing districts. Republicans started the year as favorites to retain control of the Senate. But everything seems to be breaking against them in the home stretch, starting with high energy prices. Call the Senate a tossup, for now.

[The double-haters’ guide to the midterms]

MIGHT GET SPICY 🤔

Space wars aren’t science fiction. The Air Force secretary said on September 14 that the United States has “on-orbit space control weapons.” That has probably been true for years or even decades, but it’s the first time a US government official has acknowledged it. The Air Force boss didn’t supply any details. But those weapons would most likely focus on defending US satellites and destroying those of an enemy. Anti-satellite warfare has been a theoretical and probably active corner of military science since militaries started relying on satellites for intelligence gathering in the 1960s.

Midterm cheating setback. Republicans won’t be able to block mail ballots during the November elections, at least if they abide by a Supreme Court ruling preventing it. But FBI Director Kash Patel said on Sept. 15 that the might send FBI agents to polling places during the midterm elections. There are also concerns the Trump administration could send immigration goons to intimidate voters. It’s illegal to send armed federal agents to polling stations, but would that stop Trump? It’s also possible Patel and Trump’s other minions want to rattle votes as much as possible and create doubts about whether the elections are fair.

[It’s time to revise the American Dream]

Impeach Hegseth? Incompetent Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth faces new woes. Republican Rep. Thomas Massie of Kentucky moved to impeach Hegseth for his role as Trump’s top adviser on the Iran war debacle. The House’s Republican leaders then abruptly adjourned the until after the midterms, postponing a vote on the Hegseth impeachment motion until after the elections. That doesn’t mean Hegseth is off the hook. An impeachment vote during the lame-duck session would be embarrassing even if it fails. And if Democrats take over the House next year, they’re sure to drill into Hegseth, who has provided an abundance of material for his many critics.

The Federal Reserve hiked short-term interest rates by a grand total of one-quarter of a percentage point. That rate hike alone won’t affect many people. But long-term rates, which are set by the market and not by the central bank, have been rising on worries about too much government debt and runaway inflation. If there’s one takeaway from the Fed’s move, it’s that markets now take seriously the Fed’s determination to get inflation down from the mid 3% range to its target of 2%. That’s a good thing.

[What the bond market wants you to know]

RESULTS MAY VARY 🤷‍♂️

Comrade Don. The terrific investigative news organization ProPublica reported that a crony of Russian dictator Vladimir Putin financed much of Donald Trump, Jr’s. lavish wedding on a private island in the Bahamas in May. This is a repulsive degree of corruption by the First Fraudsters, who are already rich and you would think don’t need free money tainted by association with a bloodthirsty tyrant.

Trump’s AI girlfriend. President Trump routinely posts gaudy AI images of himself in cartoonish settings, so maybe he’s the one who ordered up the golf-course smooch with aide Natalie Harp? This is the image that started circulating on the internet in recent days:

The woman is supposed to look like Natalie Harp, the devoted 35-year-old aide who is always at Trump’s side and has generated a lot of attention recently. But photo sleuths noticed that something’s off with the fingers on her right hand, and other irregularities. And though she’s often on the course when Trump golfs, she doesn’t play herself.

SAFELY IGNORE 🚫

A slowdown in AI development probably won’t happen, but the potential for AI to cause meaningful harm has sure gotten a lot of people’s attention. We recently explained why AI might want to kill humanity, summarizing four doomsday scenarios experts worry about. What we think will happen now is … not much. There will be a lot of chatter in Washington but probably little or no action to regulate AI. CEOs of the big AI companies might have legitimate concerns, but none of them is going to unilaterally slow development of cutting-edge technology if it might give an edge to competitors.

Missing hurricanes. There have been no Atlantic hurricanes this year, and there’s no sign of any forming. It could be global warming. It could be El Niño. It could be a fluke. More here.

Palestine trips up Ed Sheeran. If you pick a side in the Israeli-Palestinian standoff, prepare for blowback. Pop superstar Ed Sheeran dropped Macklemore as his opening act after the rapper said “free Palestine” on stage during a show. It wasn’t Sheeran making the demand. It was venue owners including Robert Kraft, who owns Gillette Stadium near Boston. Other acts on Sheeran’s tour quit in solidarity with Macklemore. Then there was some kind of rapprochement between Macklemore and Kraft. If you care, read more here.

Our view is that it’s foolish to stand squarely with one side or the other in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, which is an extremely complicated mess with villains on all sides. But people like the simplicity of slogans and don’t always want to think too hard.

Kennedy Center gets the Trump treatment. Most Americans have never been to the Kennedy Center theatrical complex in Washington, DC, and most will never go. That’s why this news tidbit is in the Safely Ignore quadrant. But you can’t overlook the fact that the Kennedy Center was operating normally and faced no imminent crisis when Trump took office in 2025. Then Trump got directly involved in programming and directing renovations. Now the Kennedy Center is closed for business, and Trump says he might even demolish it. The farce helps explain why Trump has an unmatched record of business bankruptcies and other failures. He’s now applying his toxic touch to many American institutions.

Enjoy a cartoon.

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~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~

Here’s what’s new on The Matterboard:

PAY ATTENTION ⚠️

The Iran war is hitting markets again—but we may be near a crescendo moment and something might break soon. Iran has been trying to sink US Navy warships, and in return the United States has started destroying Iranian oil tankers. That might finally be a winning strategy for the Pentagon. Iran is definitely feeling a lot of pain. Its currency is in free-fall, producing inflation of nearly 90%. Its economy is shrinking by 6%. That hurts ordinary Iranians more than the ruling mullahs, but losing oil revenue can threaten their personal wealth and their grip on the country.

Global oil prices have jumped back to around $100 per barrel, which has contributed to a selloff in stocks. President Trump, who has mistakenly predicted an imminent end to the war dozens of times, now says the war will end after the US midterm elections in November. He’s getting closer. Some of his aides say privately that Iran could hold out till the end of Trump’s second term. Iran probably would if it could, but another two-plus years of an oil blockade and economic ruin may be more than the mullahs can take. Once the midterms are over, it might be an opportune time for them to lock in whatever gains they can.

Record diesel prices. Gasoline prices have risen 40% since Trump launched the Iran war on February 28. But at $4.27 per gallon, they’re still well below the record of $5 per gallon set in 2022.

Diesel prices have risen by 60% since the war started, and they’re at $5.90 per gallon—the highest levels on record. The differential comes from relatively low stockpiles of diesel before the war, the types of oil kept off market by fighting in the region, and a shortage of refining capacity.

Most Americans don’t notice diesel prices, but they’re just as important as gasoline. Diesel is crucial to transportation and food production. The higher cost will show up as higher prices for thousands of everyday products for months to come. Inflation will be here for a while, and maybe get worse.

9-11, 25 years later. About 30% of the US population wasn’t born when the 9-11 terror attacks occurred 25 years ago, in 2001. Those attacks were monumental events that launched the United States into two wars and dramatically changed the course of the nation. Some Americans feel 9-11 fatigue, and wish we would just move on. What we should do instead is continue learning how 9-11 changed the United States, and the world, and bring younger generations into the discussion. Here’s a list of influential books on 9-11. Here’s a list of podcasts. Here’s a list of documentaries. Pick just one, if you like, and take your time. Whatever you learn, share it with somebody.

[The dramatic story of the Pentagon on 9-11]

MIGHT GET SPICY 🤔

Trump’s latest effort to rig the midterm election is to pay every American $5,000 for their vote. But you’d only get the money if Republicans hold onto both houses of Congress. Maybe that’s supposed to compensate everybody for disastrous Republican policies such as starting a war with Iran and putting new import taxes on thousands of goods.

It’s at least the fourth time Trump has promised voters this kind of money for nothing. In case you’re wondering why you didn’t get yours, it’s because none of those plans went anywhere. The new idea would add more than $1 trillion to the national debt and has no chance of happening, because Congress will never approve it. But when you’re deciding which party to vote for in November, think of that imaginary $5,000 … and wonder why the president thinks you are so dumb.

[It’s time to revise the American Dream]

Artificial intelligence doomers have a fresh warning: AI could kill us all by the end of the decade. That’s what AI researcher Jacob Coxon wrote on social media on Sept. 8 after quitting his job at AI giant Anthropic. Like other critics, Coxon says Anthropic and competitor OpenAI are moving too fast, without building adequate safeguards into systems that can “hack anything, revolutionize any field overnight, and acquire real power and resources.” He wants AI development to slow down and AI developers to develop shared protocols, including more moderate “pacing.” Maybe that’s better than moving fast and breaking things.

Trump’s trade war with Canada has intensified, with Canadian tariffs on $20 billion worth of American goods going into effect Sept. 8. That was in retaliation for a similar move by Trump in August. Trump now wants to ban some Canadian products from the United States, including Bombardier jets, alcohol, motorcycles and some dairy products. Every escalation in this dumb trade war concentrates the pain on somebody. Two Republican senators from Kansas, for instance, are fighting Trump’s threats against Bombardier, because the aviation company employs more than 1,000 people in Kansas. You can’t repeat this often enough: Trade wars are stupid.

MAGA spreads to Germany. The MAGA-like AfD party won the largest share of votes in a German state election, propelling the party to newfound prominence. Critics warn it could be the beginning of a Brexit-like revolution in Germany driven by anti-immigration fear-mongering. AfD wants to take Germany off the euro and align more closely with Russia. Its rise signals the widespread belief that Germany isn’t doing enough to rein in immigration, even among more moderate voters. Russian dictator Putin is doubtless cheering, as this could further splinter his fiercest foe—NATO—which is already weakened by Trump’s hostility toward the alliance.

[How Trump’s Canada tariffs could backfire]

RESULTS MAY VARY 🤷‍♂️

Trump renaming spree. After signing an order declaring that Lake Ontario is now “Lake America,” Trump posted a series of hokey maps on social media showing New Mexico renamed “New America.” His machine seems broken, like an LP that keeps skipping. Trump’s aides must laugh at all of his dumb jokes, making him think he’s a comedic genius. He doesn’t understand that it stops being funny when you make the same joke over and over.

SAFELY IGNORE 🚫

Borefest. Trump and a bunch of other Republicans gave windy speeches at a first-of-its-kind “midterm convention” for the GOP. There were much better ways to spend a couple of evenings. Nicktoons, for instance, ran a SpongeBob SquarePants marathon featuring much more serious content.

Movies aren’t dead. It was a banner summer for in-theater movies, with total box office hitting a record $4.8 billion. Hits included “The Odyssey” and “Spider-Man: Brand New Day.” Studios are releasing fewer movies but charging higher prices. And moviegoers are paying, especially for premium formats such as IMAX, used to shoot The Odyssey. Remember when streaming was supposed to kill movie theaters? Well, they’re not dead yet.

Folding iPhone. Prices for the new iPhone Duo range from $2,000 to $3,200. That’s insane. Many people will buy it, anyway. Unfolding the phone doubles the screen size, making it more like a mini tablet. I don’t want one, but like other late adopters I’ll probably be carrying one around someday. Go, Apple.

Arch to nowhere. Trump’s minions have unveiled plans for a garish “triumphal arch” Trump wants to build near Arlington Cemetery, just across the Potomac River from Washington, DC. We lump this with the White House ballroom, the Kennedy Center, the reflecting pool and other Trump vanity projects: Mock them now and undo them once Trump is gone.

Enjoy a cartoon.

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~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~

Here’s what’s new on The Matterboard:

PAY ATTENTION ⚠️

The Iran war is hot again, with US and Iranian forces exchanging fire during the past several days. On Sept. 3, Trump said (again) that the war will probably end soon, because Iran can’t take much more. But Iran doesn’t seem to agree. Here’s what the Institute for the Study of War—far more credible than Trump—said on Sept. 3: “Iran does not appear willing to relinquish control of the strait [of Hormuz], which remains a core Iranian objective.” Oil prices have jumped from around $80 at the beginning of August to $96. Trump’s foolish war continues. We all pay the price.

Ukraine hurting. Regretfully, we’ve relabeled this momentous news item from “Ukraine rising” to “Ukraine hurting.” 😟 Ukraine has made remarkable strides building home-grown weapons able to strike Russian logistics hubs and military targets deep inside Russia. But it is also absorbing relentless and perhaps intensifying bombardment with almost no means of shooting down drones and missiles Russia lobs into Ukrainian cities. Ukraine has run out of Patriot missile interceptors. Other types of defenses are scarce. This isn’t a Ukrainian failure. It’s a western failure that should shame Americans and Europeans. Russia is in its fifth year of waging a medieval war against a nation that wants to be a capitalist democracy. Ukraine’s fate shouldn’t be up in the air, but it is.

Earth is roasting. No surprise here, but global warming is surpassing levels scientists set for keeping ecological and economic damage to a minimum. In 2015, nearly 200 countries signed the Paris climate accord, meant to limit the global rise in temperature to around 1.5°C or about 2.7°F. A United Nations panel now says that goal is out of reach. The planet has already warmed by about 1.4°C above preindustrial levels, and we’ll be lucky to keep the total gain below 2°C. That might not sound like a lot, but the higher temps are enough to melt glaciers and sea ice, profoundly disrupting the Earth’s climate and causing unprecedented weather disasters.

[How Trump’s Canada tariffs could backfire]

MIGHT GET SPICY 🤔

Trump’s midterm election-stealing plan has begun to come into focus. An unnamed whistleblower communicating with Democratic Sen. Richard Blumenthal of Connecticut claims the US Postal Service is developing a new system for handling mail ballots, with a high likelihood of fraud, abuse or mistakes that could compromise election results. The USPS may have continued developing the system even after a federal judge ordered it to stop, which would be a violation of a court order. A separate judge has temporarily blocked the USPS from implementing its plan, and the USPS has asked the Supreme Court to settle the matter. It’s not clear if that could happen by Election Day, just two months away. But if the postal service violates court orders, it may try to block the delivery of some ballots even if judges say it can’t.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is Trump’s worst and most dangerous Cabinet appointee, and some in Washington are finally getting the picture. Hegseth is waging a culture war inside the armed services, forcing out dozens of senior officers and civilians for reasons having nothing to do with competence. His handling of the Iran war, meanwhile, has been amateurish and cringy. A few influential Republicans in Congress are now calling for Hegseth to resign. It couldn’t happen fast enough. We saw this coming and said Trump should fire Hegseth all the way back in April.

The global bond selloff continues, with long-term rates hitting the highest levels since late 2024. Interest rates, which have been unusually low for more than 15 years, seem to be resetting closer to historical averages. The problem is that, historically, the United States didn’t have to pay interest on a $40 trillion national debt. Now it does. Global investors are starting to have doubts about the soundness of the US government.

[What the bond market wants you to know]

RESULTS MAY VARY 🤷‍♂️

The strongest El Niño ever could make for some wild weather during the next six months. The World ‌Meteorological Organization says the El Niño forming now in the Pacific Ocean is “supersized” and likely to be the strongest it has recorded in 40 years of monitoring. An El Niño occurs every few years when weak trade winds cause warmer-than-usual water in parts of the Pacific Ocean. That, in turn, can cause unusually severe droughts, storms and other natural phenomena, mostly in North and South America. Yes, global warming is a factor. The El Niño may have already contributed to monsoon rains that caused deadly flash floods in the Grand Canyon.

Vive le lac Ontario! Google and Apple have dutifully changed the name of Lake Ontario to “Lake America” on their maps, following the childish executive order Trump signed last week declaring the name change. We guess they have no choice. If the US president says it’s so, and he’s a petulant, punitive tyrant, you probably have to play along. Still, we look forward to the un-re-naming of the lake the moment Trump is gone. It will be a terrific gesture for the next president to make, to indicate America isn’t as heinous as it sometimes seems to foreigners.

SAFELY IGNORE 🚫

NBC News anchor Kristin Welker got a demerit and has to go to the principal’s office. It’s more serious than that, but even sillier, as well. Welker has challenged some of Trump’s bogus claims about elections and other matters, both directly, while interviewing him, and in other coverage of the testy president. Trump finally couldn’t take the criticism any more, so on August 30, he announced on social media that Welker “will be reported to the FCC for rebuke or punishment.” Will she get a time-out? A spanking? An incomplete on her report card? This is probably just another Trump absurdity, but Trump has also badly abused the power of the Federal Communications Commission and its complicit boss, Brendan Carr, to try to harm and silence media critics. Laugh, but also pay attention.

[The myth of the prosperous worker]

John Ternus replaced Tim Cook as Apple CEO on September 1. Cook was one of the most successful corporate bosses in American history. During Cook’s 15-year tenure as CEO, Apple’s market value grew 13-fold, from $357 billion to $4.7 trillion. His predecessor, Steve Jobs, certainly created momentum, but Cook made Apple a tech giant through relentless growth in services, health, and wearables, plus in-house development of its own microchips. Jobs was flashy; Cook was relentlessly competent. Cook remains controversial for his occasional support of Trump. But it has kept Apple off of Trump’s enemies list. We hope Cook opens up about his views on Trump once the risk of punitive measures against the company is gone.

Duane Davis talked too much. Or maybe his conscience just couldn’t take it. At any rate, Davis’s repeated claims over the years that he orchestrated the 1996 murder of rap star Tupac Shakur finally got him convicted of murder in Las Vegas, where the killing took place. Intriguing.

[Trump and Bessent are badly missing their own economic targets]

The reflecting pool is nearly fixed! That’s according to Trump, who said so on social media on August 31. But first, just a few more loose ends to tie up—such as the Interior Dept. hiring yet another contractor to kill the algae that foul the pool, and who knows, maybe fix mistakes two prior contractors made. Trump initially said the cost of his reflecting pool reno would be $1.5 million. It’s now approaching $20 million. The pool saga is trivial as a news story, but also a priceless microcosm capturing the braggadocious blowhard Trump in full farcical splendor. If there’s a peep of news about the reflecting pool, it will always make the Matterboard.

No-show Venezuelan oil. Trump says the United States will double the amount of oil it has access to, because of a deal he made to take control of massive amounts of Venezuelan crude. So when will your big oil windfall materialize? Probably never. Venezuela sits atop some 300 billion barrels of oil, more than any other nation, including Saudi Arabia. Its reserves are nearly four times as great as known US reserves. But Venezuela ranks 22nd in oil production, averaging barely 6% of US output. That’s because decades of corrupt socialism have wrecked the country’s drilling infrastructure and driven most foreign investors away. Trump’s announcement of a deal is unlikely to change that, and few competent drillers are likely to invest in a banana republic now governed from a distance by Trump in what may be an illegal takeover.

[Trump’s sketchy Venezuela deal]

Enjoy a cartoon.

You can order this cartoon👆 and play cartoon-themed puzzles and word games at CartoonStock.com.

~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~

Here’s what’s new on The Matterboard:

PAY ATTENTION ⚠️

The Iran war is now an economic battle, according to President Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who announced the onset of “Operation Economic Outcast” on August 24. Sounds scary! Maybe Economic Outcast will be the hot new Halloween costume terrifying everybody in October.

We’re joking about OEO for two reasons. One, Trump has clearly lost the stomach for military operations in the region, given that they don’t seem to be accomplishing anything except keeping oil and gasoline prices elevated. Two, there’s a very long history of sanctions and other forms of economic pressure failing to accomplish the desired goals. Bessent calls the plan an “economic D-Day,” which we predict will end up among the top 10 hyperboles ever uttered about Trump’s Iran war.

These new sanctions will hurt Iran, which had a hyperinflation problem before the war that is now far worse. Some of the mullahs will go without their taste of the nation’s oil revenue for a while. But China, Russia, and other important countries won’t go along with the penalties, providing Iran a lifeline. Plus, Iran wants to tough it out till the US midterm elections, to prevent arch-enemy Trump from declaring a breakthrough before Americans vote. No resolution of the Iran war Trump launched six months ago is likely until November, at the earliest, when voters may declare Trump and his fellow Republicans political outcasts.

Hot oceans. Global ocean temperatures hit a new record high of about 70° F on August 22. Great for swimmers. Bad news for everybody harmed by a warming planet. Global warming probably also caused a glacier to collapse in the mountains of Nepal on August 26, causing ghastly flooding that killed hundreds. These kinds of ecological disasters will keep happening.

MIGHT GET SPICY 🤔

Cancer breakthrough. Not all news is bad. The FDA approved a pill to treat pancreatic cancer that might be able to double the survival rate. If you’ve known anybody with pancreatic cancer, you know this is a devastating disease that progresses rapidly and ruthlessly. Thank you, science.

Meta settles. The parent of Facebook and Instagram settled a lawsuit with 47 states over deliberate efforts to addict kids to social media content. It’s interesting. Meta will install blocks on its apps that limit users under 18 to two hours’ of use per day, with all activity blocked during school hours and from midnight to 6 am. Only a parent can unlock those blocks. Meta wants YouTube, TikTok, and other social media platforms to adopt the same rules, which could get even tighter if they all agree. There are also new limits on the kind of content minors can see and on “like” counts, which can become competitive.

[What the bond market wants you to know]

Kids are devilishly sneaky and they find a way around many rules. Will they outsmart Meta? Or bug their parents until they cave and allow regular addictive use?

US-Canada smackdown. Trump has renewed his trade war with Canada, and Canada isn’t backing down. Trump started it last year with new tariffs on Canadian imports. Canada retaliated with new limits on American imports. Trump has now counter-retaliated, and Canada counter-counter-retaliated. This could amount to a bunch of saber-rattling that settles down, but some analysts think neither side is likely to blink, with new tariffs of 50% going into effect on billions of dollars of goods traveling in both directions during the next several months.

This is profoundly stupid. Trump is in the middle of a hugely consequential war the United States is in the process of losing. You’d think he’d find better things to do than harm both the US and Canadian economies even further. Trade economist Chad Bown of the Peterson Institute for Intl. Economics says the ultimate winner of this trade war won’t be the United States or Canada—it’ll be China.

Trump’s midterm cheating plan: Two developments. One is a federal judge’s decision to block the US Postal Service’s plan to restrict the delivery of some mail-in ballots in the November election. That ban is temporary and could be overturned before November, which could allow the USPS to refuse to deliver some ballots. Another in Justice Dept. “election monitors” who demonstrated “aggressive” behavior in the Wyoming primary elections on August 18, according to the state’s Republican governor. He asked the state’s attorney general to investigate.

We’re not hair-on-fire hysterics who think Trump has killed American democracy, but Trump has made it plain that he wants to manipulate this year’s elections to give his fellow Republicans an edge. It’s time to start paying close attention.

[A Subaru Capitalist takes on the “Subaru Socialists”]

An American in Moscow. Aviation geeks noticed a US Air Force C-17 cargo jet landing in Moscow on August 25. That doesn’t happen every day, so rumors began to swirl. It turns out CIA Director John Ratcliffe was on board. He stayed in Moscow for about eight hours.

What did he do there? Press reports suggest Ratcliffe was there to tell the Russians to stop sending drones into NATO airspace (we told you about that last week) and to drop a plan to test NATO defenses further. Maybe, but that could be a decoy explanation. Note that Bessent announced his “economic D-Day” in Iran at around the same time. Also keep in mind Trump’s weird admiration for Russian dictator Vladimir Putin. Maybe Trump has urgent plans to revive his Trump Tower Moscow project and he thought the CIA director could seal the deal.

[Could 1929 happen again?]

Opposition to data centers is becoming one of the top political issues in this year’s midterm elections. More than two-thirds of voters oppose the local construction of data centers, and politicians who once supported the businesses are flip-flopping. Congressional races in Ohio, Michigan, Texas, and elsewhere could turn on the issue. Republican Gov. Greg Abbott of Texas went from inviting construction of the power hungry computing centers to imposing restrictions. The main worry is energy shortages and higher costs for consumers, given that data centers are electricity hogs.

RESULTS MAY VARY 🤷‍♂️

Trump flounders. The latest poll by Strength in Numbers shows that Trump has a negative approval rating—more disapprove than approve—on every one of 12 issues they ask about. That includes border security, where his net approval is -5, and immigration, at -13. Those have typically been Trump’s strongest issues. On jobs and the economy, Trump’s net approval is -48. That’s dismal, especially for an issue many voters once trusted Trump on.

NFL battering. A new study found that the lifetime incidence of the brain disease CTE could be 25% among pro football players, and possibly much higher. CTE is the condition caused by repeat trauma to the brain that has been linked with dementia in some players. The NFL and the players’ union both say they are concerned and intent on protecting players to the maximum extent possible. But the game will go on, more or less as it is.

SAFELY IGNORE 🚫

Bessent v. the bond market. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent got a schooling from legendary investor Stanley Druckenmiller, who was once his boss. In an August 24 Wall Street Journal editorial, Druckenmiller said it was a “mistake” for Bessent to promise a Treasury maneuver meant to lower long-term interest rates. Druckenmiller said Bessent should focus instead on fixing the core problem—getting the federal debt under control and reducing annual deficits that are now running around $2 trillion. There was an unstated undercurrent: That Bessent, who ought to know what he’s doing, is debasing himself and risking his reputation by using gimmicks to impress his boss, President Trump. Druckenmiller seemed to be saying: Really, Scott?

[The myth of the prosperous worker]

Jackson Hole meh. In a much-ballyhooed speech at a conference in Wyoming, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said that despite progress, inflation is still too high. You don’t need to be a banker to know that. The upshot is that the Fed could raise short-term interest rates later this year, by one-quarter of a point or maybe one-half. Not much more to it than that.

Imported beef beef. Beef prices are up 9% year over year and 22% during the last two years. So Trump said he’ll pause his own tariffs on beef imports and allow more foreign beef into the country. It’s a lose-lose move for Trump. He’s not responsible for the cattle shortage that’s the main cause of higher prices. But he did put new taxes on imported beef—giving voters a reasons to blame him for beeflation. And now, American ranchers are angry that he’s cutting importers a break. Plus, the tariff pause probably won’t lower prices enough for most consumers to notice. Trump is making everybody unhappy.

[Trump and Bessent are badly missing their own economic targets]

WNBA trans flap. Everything in America is politicized (except Dolly Parton🥲), so yeah, it makes sense that women’s pro basketball would become ground zero for the battle over trans athletes and other woke land mines. Indiana Fever guard Sophie Cunningham said in a July 21 ESPN profile that she would prefer trans athletes not compete with young women. Firestorms erupted. Conservative media tried to adopt Cunningham while gay-rights advocates attacked her. Fox News has devoted at least 206 segments to the WNBA this summer, few of them focusing on basketball and most of them stoking cultural outrage.

Let young people express their opinions. Let talented athletes play basketball. If you want to be outraged, target the national debt.

Kennedy Center saga. Trump has turned the Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts into a farcical microcosm of his entire second term. He has appointed cronies to the board, tried to name it after himself, reoriented the programming from highbrow to lowbrow, and blasted court decisions that blocked the renaming of the center after himself. He’s now overseeing a two-year renovation of the facility.

On August 24, the Justice Dept. filed a motion in one lawsuit saying that if Trump’s name can’t be added to the building, the government might have no choice but to bulldoze the entire structure. Good-government groups find the suggestion appalling, but we think it would be perfectly appropriate: A hole in the ground where the Kennedy Center once stood would be the perfect metaphor for Trump’s nihilist presidency. Maybe it could stand in perpetuity as America’s tribute to the 47th president.

~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~

Here’s what’s new on The Matterboard:

PAY ATTENTION ⚠️

The Iran war has cost Americans $88 billion so far, including $48 billion in higher gasoline costs, according to a Brown University tracker. That’s about $670 per household for a war now in its sixth month. President Trump’s desperation to find a way out is becoming farcical. On August 18 Trump posted a schlocky map of the Strait of Hormuz with the label, “New US Territory.” Iran responded with a social media post claiming that California is now Iranian territory. This is all fake juvenile bravado. Trump can’t end the war and we are paying the price.

Trump’s latest self-dealing scheme is a plan to turn his crypto firm, World Liberty Financial, into a bank. That will allow it to manage institutional money and take fees from anybody seeking to curry favor with the president. No US president has ever owned a major stake in a bank or attempted graft so brazenly.

[More: Trump’s biggest grift yet]

Another Democratic Socialist beat a more mainstream candidate in a prominent Congressional race. Angie Nixon upset polling favorite Alex Vindman to become the Democratic Senate nominee in Florida. That energized liberals—but made it far more likely Republicans will hold the seat. The Brookings Institution points out that far-left candidates aren’t that numerous, even if they get an outsized amount of attention. The risk for Democrats is that a handful of candidates that seem extremist to centrist swing voters tarnish the whole party.

MIGHT GET SPICY 🤔

ABC and its parent Disney are suing the Federal Communications Commission for threatening the network’s broadcast licenses. The FCC, headed by Trump ally Brendan Carr, went after ABC last year after relentless mocking of Trump by late-night host Jimmy Kimmel. The FCC told the network it planned to review eight ABC broadcast licenses at least two years earlier than scheduled, a clear threat to use federal power to prohibit ABC from broadcasting. ABC and Disney are now suing to stop the FCC’s early reviews.

The upshot is that Trump is trying to punish the network for airing content he disapproves of, with ABC fighting for its free speech rights. ABC should win. It will be a gloomy day if it doesn’t.

Facebook parent Meta is facing a landmark lawsuit alleging it deliberately tries to addict kids to content on Facebook and Instagram. Duh? Twenty-nine states, both red and blue, brought the suit, with the trial beginning on August 18. It will last about six weeks. If Meta loses, it might have to pay damages and put new limits on how children interact with its content.

[A Subaru Capitalist takes on the “Subaru Socialists”]

Trump threatened South Korea because it won’t join his military effort to topple the Iranian regime. He said the Pentagon will “substantially reduce” US military participation in what have long been joint US-Korea exercises.

As a reminder, the Korean War is not over. There’s been a ceasefire in place since 1953, so you might think, what’s the big deal. Except North Korea remains an extremely hostile dictatorship, tightly aligned with Russia, that has nuclear weapons it has threated use against the United States. If war breaks out again, it could destroy much of Seoul with artillery launched from thousands of tubes just north of the demilitarized zone.

If you wonder why we should care about South Korea, there’s a simple one-word answer: Semiconductors. South Korea produces roughly 15% of the world’s chips, which are already in short supply. Disrupt that and there’d be an economic earthquake.

Russian drones have been entering European airspace with alarming regularity, and intelligence reports say Russia is building several new drone bases near its border with eastern Europe. Russian dictator Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine is going badly—but that doesn’t mean he’s backing down. Putin may actually get bolder and more reckless as his Ukraine war deteriorates. He also knows Trump has riven the NATO military alliance. He probably won’t mount attacks on NATO countries, but he may well push provocations right up to the line that warrants some kind of NATO response.

RESULTS MAY VARY 🤷‍♂️

$4 gas is likely to irritate voters at least through the midterm elections. It now seems like a safe bet that Iran will disrupt Strait of Hormuz shipping till at least then, hoping to punish Trump and his fellow Republicans with election losses tied to war-related inflation. There’s no reason to think Trump can do anything to prevent it. If there’s any good news, it’s that gas prices aren’t heading toward $5. Under current conditions, energy-market workarounds have left prices elevated but not stratospheric.

[How Trump is missing his own economic targets]

People hate Flock surveillance cameras and have been destroying them. Flock makes a suite of surveillance products, powered by artificial intelligence, that can read license plates and gather other data on people’s cars, where they go, and what the occupants do in them. Municipalities have installed 120,000 Flock cameras systems, which alarms civil libertarians and pisses a lot of people off. The Washington Post documented at least 50 instances in which cops used Flock data to harass their exes or conduct other illicit activity. People have vandalized or stolen the devices in Detroit and other cities. There are online videos showing how to dismantle a Flock system. We don’t condone violence but the backlash seems appropriate.

Justice for Tupac? The trial is finally underway in the case involving the 1996 murder of rapper Tupac Shakur in Las Vegas. Prosecutors charged Duane Davis with the murder in 2023, after the Compton, Los Angeles gang leader bragged about ordering the drive-by shooting in documentaries and a memoir. Davis now says those boasts were a fictional effort to gain notoriety. We don’t have an opinion on whether he’s guilty, but any effort to solve a salacious 30-year-old celebrity murder gets our attention.

SAFELY IGNORE 🚫

Rising interest rates won’t affect most people today, but they signal stress in certain corners of the financial market and a reckoning, at last, for vast amounts of irresponsible government borrowing. Long-term interest rates recently hit the highest level since 2007, forcing a very unusual intervention on the bond market by the Treasury Dept. to bring rates back down. For now, this only affects consumers and businesses in the market for a loan, since they have to pay more. But if rates rise further, which is plausible, it could force stock prices down and generate recessionary pressure.

[The myth of the prosperous worker]

Trump threatened to bomb Oman, another runty overreaction to a nation unwilling to board the sinking ship that is Trump’s Iran strategy. Trump is not going to bomb Oman, because he can’t afford to make his Middle East quagmire even worse. But he’s unhappy that Oman, situated on the south side of the Strait of Hormuz, opposite Iran, is pursuing its own deal with Iran to manage ship traffic through the strait. It’s yet another ugly consequence of the war that Trump and his incompetent Defense Secretary, Pete Hegseth, failed to anticipate.

Jackson Hole yawner. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh will give a big speech in Wyoming on August 28, which financial news networks are sure to overhype. There’s a big financial conference in Jackson Hole every August and the Fed chair customarily gives an address. Once or twice, it has moved markets, which is why the media fixates on it. And Warsh, new to the job, still has to prove himself up to the task of getting inflation down.

[The double-haters’ guide to the midterm elections]

But it’s unlikely Warsh will make any actual news. Everybody knows the Fed is split on whether to raise interest rates. That decision won’t come until the Fed’s next policy meeting in mid September. Warsh is more likely to talk about arcane ways he wants to change the way the Fed does business. It might matter for some economists and traders, but not so much for the rest of us.

Harping on Natalie. Trump assistant Natalie Harp is suddenly one of the hottest topics on the internet. Harp is the 35-year-old blond woman who always seems to be by Trump’s side. She reportedly carries a portable printer so she can give Trump hard copies of any news story or social media post he wants to see. Harp was one of the three people who accompanied Trump when he snuck off Air Force One in the catering truck in Turkey on July 8. So Trump must consider her pretty important.

Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff of Georgia said at a recent rally that Trump “doesn’t want to do the job [of President]. He wants to build his ballroom and travel with Natalie.” The insinuation was that Trump is having an affair with his aide. In response, Trump called Ossoff “Pee-Wee Herman.” That means Ossoff got under his skin.

We kinda doubt Trump is having an affair with Harp right under the glare of the White House press pool and the rest of the presidential entourage. But he might not mind if people think that. As for his wife Melania, she ought to know better than anybody about Trump’s ability to have a fling at the age of 80. And she hasn’t voiced any concern.

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Here’s what’s new on The Matterboard:

PAY ATTENTION ⚠️

The Iran war could last until 2029. Not kidding. A top Iranian official said recently, “Trump will not reach an agreement with us. We will accompany him until his term ends.” Analysts interpret that to mean Iran plans to string Trump along until he leaves office in 2029. That would mean continued harassment of Gulf energy shipments, and elevated energy prices, for another two-and-a-half years, unless Trump can find a way out.

If the war does simmer that long, however, energy markets will adapt and Iran’s leverage will decline. One expert at the Atlantic Council argues that Trump should calm down, maintain the oil blockade of Iran, and wait it out. Americans aren’t happy with $4 gasoline, but it’s not killing the economy, either. We’re already learning to live with the Iran situationship.

The Democratic Socialists rose from RESULTS MAY VARY to the PAY ATTENTION quadrant this week, mainly due to Abdul El-Sayed’s win in the Michigan Democratic Senate primary. El-Sayed says he’s not a socialist. But he’s in the Bernie Sanders camp, backing policies such as government-run health care.

We care less about El-Sayed’s policy views than his role as a GOP bogeyman and the odds that a few high-profile lefties will leave the Democrats’ brand more damaged than ever. President Trump calls El-Sayed a communist. El-Sayed is Muslim, and the Internet is filled with false claims that he wants to enact Sharia law in the United States. (Emphasis: false.)

A huge question in the 2026 elections is whether the growing slate of far-left Democrats on the ballot, socialist or otherwise, will energize young voters and create momentum for Democrats, or horrify centrists who flee to the other side. You can read more here about the Democratic Socialists’ awful branding problem.

MIGHT GET SPICY 🤔

Trump hiding in the catering truck. The memes are delightful (“Operation Iran Away”)😄. And we still don’t know some of the most important details. Is there a specialized presidential catering truck built to military specs? Or does the president of the United States have to ride in an off-the-shelf catering truck? Were there chairs? Or did Trump sit on the floor?

But still: The story of Trump sneaking off Air Force One on July 8 to secretly board another plane is pretty stunning. The Secret Service ordered the switcheroo because of reports that Iran might try to shoot down Air Force One as it left the NATO summit in Turkey, bound for home. There have already been at least two assassination attempts against Trump. The Iranians might not have gotten very far, but they’ve tried before and they’ll keep trying. Crazy times could get crazier.

[“The lousy, stinking politicians”]

Vaccine lunacy. If you don’t trust the government, good. Trump signed an executive order on August 10 reducing the list of recommended childhood vaccines from 18 to 11. He did that based on nothing except prodding by the kook Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., the laughably unqualified Secretary of Health and Human Services. If you take health advice from Trump and RFK Jr., god help you. Don’t listen to them! Just do what your doctor recommends.

RESULTS MAY VARY 🤷‍♂️

Trump’s approval rating keeps sinking. It hit 33% in the latest YouGov poll, with his net approval rating (approve minus disapprove) at -29. Both are record lows for Trump. The worst Joe Biden net approval was -23, and that was after Biden’s disastrous debate performance in June 2024. Trump is doing worse than Biden was at his most feeble.

Biden hurting. Hunter Biden says his father Joe’s prostate cancer is worsening and has spread to other parts of his body, most likely the bones. It’s not necessarily terminal, and Joe Biden continues to make public appearances. We put this on The Matterboard because it’s the first Biden health update in a while and we sincerely wish Biden well. For all his foibles as president, he was mostly decent and normal.

SAFELY IGNORE 🚫

Chipflation is something you’re likely to encounter eventually. The cost of DRAM memory components is expected to soar by 400% from the start of 2024 to the end of 2026, according to JP Morgan. That’s already raising the cost of flash drives and memory chips. It will probably start to push up the cost of smartphones, computers and other things that require chips, such as cars. We expect chipflation to rise higher on The Matterboard as it becomes more noticeable.

[The AI boom is just getting started]

You need to know about “The Zapper.” She’s a young White House staffer with a Barbie-style blank stare seen standing next to Trump at his White House desk, possibly for the sole purpose of zapping him back to life when he falls asleep. The theory is, she wears some kind of gizmo beneath her clothes and pushes a button when a nearby aide nods or gives her a signal. It then pings a vibrating device somewhere on Trump’s person, reviving him. Check it out here.

Look, it’s obviously probably not true, but The Zapper made The Matterboard because of the bizarre spectacle of Trump repeatedly nodding off with the cameras rolling. Any other president would do something, like take stimulants before boring TV events or just stop doing them. Trump is such a publicity-hog that he can’t say no to the cameras, even when he’s sleeping. Americans voted for this farce.

Leavitt Leaving. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt is leaving the job at the end of August to spend more time with her family. That excuse is a classic cover story when somebody screws up and needs to go, but Leavitt had a baby in May, so this may be one instance when it’s actually true. Another Trump loyalist will replace her and end up with the thankless job of covering for Trump’s mistakes and explaining his many inanities. Press secretaries come and go, and Leavitt’s departure would only be especially notable if it turns out she knows some huge controversy is brewing and wants to get out before the storm hits. Meanwhile, she’ll doubtless turn up as a talking head, probably on Fox.

AOC’s pregnancy plans. Why does Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez want everybody to know she’s freezing her eggs so she can still have a baby later in life? This is normally a private decision and we don’t need to know. But something’s going on with AOC, who is 36.

Around the time she posted a series of egg-freezing videos, it became public (deliberately leaked?) that she broke up with her fiancé a couple of years ago. Put them together, and the message is, she doesn’t have a family that might get in the way of her job, but she’s family-minded and hopes to have kids someday.

AOC also made news on Aug. 9 when she said on an ABC news show, “Woke 1.0 was crazy,” referring to the peak political correctness mania that occurrred around 2020.

AOC has senatorial and maybe presidential ambitions, and she’s disowning some of her most fiery leftist positions, such as defunding the police and bashing moderate Democrats. In a way, it’s a public version of how a passionate, radical-minded young person learns how the world works and becomes more rational. Is it AOK? We’ll find out if she ever needs the votes of people beyond her deep-blue Congressional district in New York City.

Enjoy a real cartoon.

You can order this cartoon👆 and play cartoon-themed puzzles and word games at CartoonStock.com.

~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~

Here’s what’s new on The Matterboard:

PAY ATTENTION ⚠️

The Iran war could last for months. Iranian officials told Reuters recently that they believe they can put the United States in a “strategic stranglehold” by continuing to threaten oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. That will ultimately force President Trump to make a deal granting many Iranian demands, which will likely include some sort of prolonged control over the strait. The Iranian strategy is “calculated escalation” meant to increase economic and political costs for the United States and its allies. It already seems to be working.

Interest rates are rising because of inflation fears and loads of debt hitting the market, including ongoing massive borrowing by the US government. Mortgage rates have risen from 6% before the Iran war to 6.7%, the highest level in a year. The US Treasury recently engaged in an unusual effort with Japan meant to strengthen the yen without raising US interest rates even more. Trump wants low interest rates and they’re going in the opposite direction, in part because his own policies—tariffs and the Iran war—are exacerbating inflation. He expects new Federal Reserve chair Kevin Warsh to get rates lower. But Warsh may not be able to do it. Fireworks seem inevitable.

MIGHT GET SPICY 🤔

Iran is apparently trying to sabotage American infrastructure, to bring the US-Iran war home to ordinary Americans. Officials in Michigan, Minnesota and several other states have reported cyberattacks on water systems. There’s no evidence the attacks caused serious damage, but Iran is pretty good at cyberwarfare and national-security experts have long warned that US infrastructure could be vulnerable. China, Russia, and North Korea probably have similar capabilities.

US Central Command, responsible for military operations in the Middle East, is looking for better ways to deal with Iran. An unnamed CentCom officer sent an email to military analysts recently saying the military was looking for “creative and unconventional ways to pressure and punish Iran,” according to CNN. We have an idea: Get rid of Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, the most senior civilian advising Trump on this debacle. Firing Hegseth would let Trump blame the whole fiasco on him and push the reset button. But only Trump can fire Hegseth, and alas, there’s no sign he’s leaning that way.

[Why markets are manic right now]

Four million Americans have lost food aid because of cutbacks in the tax law Trump signed last year. Some of them are kids. And further cutbacks are probably coming. The president of the Children’s Defense Fund told NPR some families are facing “desperation.” Republicans who structured the cutbacks added work requirements and other conditions, knowing it would reduce the amount of aid going out and free some money to help finance the tax cuts. The tax cuts benefit the wealthy more than anybody else. Something seems wrong here.

Todd Blanche is set to become attorney general, after he revoked the May order setting up a $1.8 billion slush fund Trump wanted to pay off allies. That was a condition some Republican senators set in order to vote for Blanche’s confirmation. So they’ve now cleared the way for him to become attorney general. But Trump didn’t sign the new Blanche order and there’s a good chance the slush fund isn’t dead. The Justice Dept. has become a politicized arm of Trump’s machine and Blanche seems unlikely to change that.

[What you should know about Trump’s new insider-trading scheme]

Trump blames ExxonMobil and Chevron for $4 gas. He said they’ve made “too much money” since the Iran war sent oil prices surging, and should “give some of that back to the public.” Joe Biden would be proud. Energy companies always earn more when oil prices rise. They earn less when oil prices fall, but nobody notices that. Politicians looking for scapegoats have tried to browbeat Big Oil into cutting prices many times, but it never works because private-sector companies answer to shareholders, not politicians. Oil and gas prices would fall if Trump resolved the Iran war.

RESULTS MAY VARY 🤷‍♂️

Trump’s approval rating has hit record lows, according to several polls. His approval rating ranges from 32% to 34% in surveys by CNN, the Associated Press, and Quinnipiac. Trump’s Iran war is deeply unpopular and he keeps doing things voters don’t want, such as raising tariffs on imports and making everybody pay more for stuff. Trump’s terrible ratings are the best hope Democrats have of winning one or both houses of Congress in the upcoming midterm elections.

Contaminated food is marring the summer of 2026. Two people in Michigan died from the cyclospora parasite that has poisoned lettuce and other vegetables and caused an epidemic of explosive diarrhea. And a salmonella outbreak linked to eggs has sickened a bunch of people in 17 states. Food illnesses affect relatively few Americans but do tend to freak some people out.

SAFELY IGNORE 🚫

Mitch McConnell is still missing, and he may even be too frail to sign his name, according to a Daily Beast report. The odd silence of his staff and family amid a long hospitalization makes it seem like the Kentucky Republican senator is gravely ill. We’ve pointed out before that if McConnell dies, Kentucky’s Democratic governor may try to appoint a member of his own party to temporarily replace McConnell.

[Why Trump’s approval rating is cratering]

A “nudification” ban took effect in Minnesota on August 1. The law prohibits the use of technology to “nudify” an image of somebody. One of Elon Musk’s companies sued to block the law, claiming it went too far. A judge shot that down. We live in interesting times.

Two skeevy Congressmen face uncertain futures. The House Ethics Committee rebuked Rep. Chuck Edwards, a North Carolina Republican, for what sounds like sexual harassment of young women on his staff. In Ohio, Rep. Max Miller, also a Republican, is facing calls to resign because of what sounds like abusive behavior toward his ex-wife, who is the daughter of Ohio Sen. Bernie Moreno. The two youngs had a contentious divorce, finalized last year, with the woman accusing Miller of abusing her and the two-year-old daughter they share. Moreno kept silent on the matter until August 2, when he said on social media that Miller is “erratic and dangerous” and should resign. Both of these guys are running for reelection in November.

The reflecting pool is back in the headlines, and we are delighted! Justice Dept. prosecutor Jeanine Pirro dropped the case against a 67-year-old Maryland man for “vandalizing” the pool because there was no evidence he did. Trump flipped out, because he’s clinging to the lie that vandals wrecked the pool rather than his no-bid contractors. Now, he might fire Pirro. The falsely accused Marylander might sue the government. Meanwhile, the pool is empty because the new lining didn’t work. This is one of the dumbest stories of all time and it perfectly encapsulates the folly of the Trump presidency.

FIFA flap. There’s a big controversy at soccer’s governing body, which everybody can ignore because Americans only care about soccer when their kids play or the World Cup comes to town.

Enjoy a cartoon.

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~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~

Here’s what’s new on The Matterboard:

PAY ATTENTION ⚠️

The Iran war is likely to continue for months. President Trump can’t find an exit ramp and Iran seems intent on threatening shipping in the Strait of Hormuz at least until the US midterm elections in November. Expect gasoline prices to stay in the $4 range for at least that long.

Ukraine has newfound mojo in its war with Russia and its barbaric leader Vladimir Putin. Ukraine has been battering Russia’s energy infrastructure with drone strikes and bringing the impact of the war back home to ordinary Russians. President Volodymyr Zelensky’s July 28 meeting with Trump was private and “productive,” according to news reports—a complete 180 compared with the performative dressing down of Zelensky at the White House last year. Trump seems to be realigning himself with what may ultimately be the winning side in this ghastly war.

The Russian energy crisis is becoming a global problem. Russia has banned the export of some petroleum products, worsening the supply crunch caused by Trump’s Iran war. Russia needs the cash from energy exports, so it will start exporting again as damaged facilities come back online. Ukraine will keep at it.

Wildfires are everywhere. Dozens of Canadian fires are still burning, while France and Spain are now dealing with an unusual spate of fires fueled by unprecedented heat waves. Yes, it’s global warming. We’ve set our own biosphere on fire.

MIGHT GET SPICY 🤔

The Pentagon is running drastically short of defensive weapons meant to shoot down missiles and drones, thanks to the Iran war and gaps in the military-industrial complex. This is an alarming vulnerability undoubtedly noted by adversaries such as China and Russia. Drones are cheap and easy to build by the thousands. Interceptors are expensive and complex. Asymmetric warfare is here to stay.

Journalist Kurt Andersen has a novel coming out in which Trump dies at the age of 89 and his supporters deem it a deep-state assassination. Riots ensue. Seems plausible.

The Federal Reserve is unlikely to raise interest rates until September at least. Rate-hike odds are getting more attention than necessary.

[See the Democratic Socialists’ awful branding problem]

Circular financing is unnerving investors who think big companies helping finance purchases by their own customers is a risky move that could backfire, as it did during the dot-com bust in the early 2000s. Nvidia, Alphabet, Anthropic, OpenAI and other tech firms are inking these types of deals. The risk is that a slump at one company could affect others and create a systemwide wipeout.

RESULTS MAY VARY 🤷‍♂️

The singularity is here, according to Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI. That means AI is surpassing human intelligence in its ability to self-improve and assert control. To many, this sounds like a nightmare right out of science fiction. Altman thinks it’s a good thing, and will improve life for humans.

Drones are operating as police officers in China and other repressive places. In a social-media video that went viral, a drone hovers over a man in the ocean surf in Qingdao because he violated a nighttime ban on swimming. The drone shines a spotlight on the man while a voice on a loudspeaker tells him to get out of the water. Drones also handle traffic incidents in some Chinese cities and even give out tickets for infractions.

Space evangelicals want to put a religious cross on the moon by 2030. The cross would have to be made of titanium and be drilled into the moon’s surface. The “Cross on the Moon Coalition” hopes to convert SpaceX CEO Elon Musk to its cause so the cross can hitch a ride to the moon on one of Musk’s rockets. The moon-cross people are Trump supporters.

[Americans feel pinched, so Trump piles on with more tariffs]

SAFELY IGNORE 🚫

Where’s Mitch? That’s the latest parlor game in Washington, DC, where Republican Sen. Mitch McConnell of Kentucky has been unseen for 45 days. McConnell, who’s 84, apparently had a heart attack at his DC home on June 14, and has been hospitalized ever since. It’s not weird that an eightysomething is in the hospital. What’s weird is that his family and staff won’t say what’s going on with a high-profile elected official. Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear, a Democrat, has called on McConnell to “verbally address” the public, as if to demonstrate proof of life.

The measles illness is having a banner year, with more than 2,300 cases reported so far in the United States in 2026. That tops the tally for all of last year. Measles was essentially eradicated in the US until anti-vaxxers started shunning the vaccine. The current outbreak is the worst since at least 1991. Humanity sometimes regresses.

Mick Jagger was prescient in 1966 when he wrote about what a drag it is getting old. Mick has been doing interviews to promote the new Rolling Stones album, and describing how he dislikes aging. “There’s nothing good about it,” he told the New York Times. The interviewer asked, what about acquiring wisdom? “You don’t get wisdom,” Mick explained. “You forget everything. I forgot all my wisdom.” Worth a listen.

Former Covid czar Anthony Fauci kept a diary during the pandemic, and Republican Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky somehow got ahold of more than 1,000 pages and released them publicly. In the diaries, the government’s former top infectious diseases specialist mused about his fame and his connections with celebrities such as Barbra Streisand. He expressed doubts about the severity of federal Covid safety guidelines and his own theory that the virus emerged from an animal market in China. Fauci retired in 2022 at the age of 82. He’s still an oddly divisive figure, for a doctor.

Cracker Barrel CEO Julie Masino is leaving next month, which seems to be the last act in a silly rebranding drama that began last year. The schlocky chain redid its logo last August and removed the old guy sitting on a rocking chair, which enraged a large segment of the US population with nothing better to do than cling to nostalgia. So the chain put the old man back. But that wasn’t enough and a head needed to roll. Why anybody cares remains a mystery.

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This week’s Matterboard has ten new items, three modifications, and three items carried over from last week. Here’s what’s new:

WORTH PAYING ATTENTION TO:

The Iran war is hot again, with US and Iranian forces shooting at each other and Iran attacking the occasional tanker in the Strait of Hormuz. One new development: The Houthi militia in Yemen says it will block Saudi oil shipments from transiting the Red Sea, which creates another flashpoint. Oil is back up to $90 per barrel and gas is once again above $4 per gallon. Diesel is $5.14, which will raise the cost of food and other products. The Iran war is a mess and this on-and-off pattern could persist for months. The Council on Foreign Relations has this nice Iran war tracker.

More ICE controversy. A man started a gasoline fire at an Immigration and Customs Enforcement building in New York on July 20, apparently to protest ICE’s thuggish actions and at least two killings its agents have committed in recent weeks. We don’t condone violent protests. But ICE is a rogue police force that brings unwanted attention to itself. Cleaning it up is the best way to deter attacks on federal workers.

Russia’s energy crisis is becoming the world’s problem. Russia has stopped exporting diesel, because Ukrainian attacks on its energy infrastructure have created shortages at home. Russian motorists queue for hours and sometimes days to fuel their vehicles. The diesel export ban could cut global supplies by 6% or 7% at a time the US-Iran war is already straining supply. The energy crisis is far from over, and it will continue to fuel broader inflation.

[Check out the price of gasoline around the world]

Canadian wildfires are still burning, even though the smoke that hung over much of the United States in mid-July has dissipated. Global warming has made wildfires hotter, bigger and more destructive. The fire season also lasts longer. President Trump wants to punish Canada for its fires, but many are in inaccessible places where the only choice is to let them burn. Smoky summer air seems to be an unpleasant new fact of life. Here’s a web site you can bookmark showing where the wildfire smoke is.

MIGHT GET SPICY:

GOP midterm cheating will stress-test the US electoral system in November. Trump’s July 17 speech on election integrity was filled with falsehoods, and independent monitors consider the US election system very secure. What Trump is trying to do is raise public doubt about election security, because he’s planning — what, exactly? — in November. Maybe he just expects Republicans to lose, and is establishing an excuse. But it could be something more nefarious, like sending federal agents to seize ballots in close races.

[The double-haters’ guide to the midterm elections]

New York police might arrest Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu if he visits New York City in September for the UN’s annual meeting, Mayor Zohran Mamdani said recently. That’s because Mamdani and many of his supporters consider Netanyahu a war criminal for Israeli military action in Gaza that has harmed Palestinians. This seems like a dumb idea that Mamdani won’t follow through on. Israel’s treatment of Palestinians is troubling, but it’s not a US mayor’s job to resolve it. Just fix the potholes, dude. And the rent.

Cheap AI products from China are the latest worry roiling the artificial-intelligence boom. Cheap AI models could undercut offerings from Google, Anthropic, OpenAI and the like, making it even harder for these “hyperscalers” to get a return on the hundreds of billions of dollars they’re investing in AI. On the plus side, cheaper AI would be good for consumers and the makers of chips and other equipment Chinese AI models need just as other models do.

[The Weekly WTF: President shouts, nobody listens]

$4 gas is irritating drivers anew and causing more midterm election problems for Trump and his fellow Republicans. Trump obviously wants gas prices closer to $3 as Americans prepare to vote in the fall. Iran gets a say and they’d love to punish Trump by keeping gas prices high as long as possible. Iran, for now, has the advantage.

RESULTS MAY VARY:

The Trump tariffs are returning. Trump rolled out new 50% tariffs on some Canadian imports and he’s planning broader tariffs on imports from many countries. There will be lawsuits. Meanwhile, the import taxes will stoke inflation and convince more voters that Trump is crazy to risk making inflation worse in the months before an election.

Trumpy MAGA Republicans are losing heart, according to Washington insider Sally Quinn. “The MAGA Republicans don’t seem to be having such a good time ransacking the place anymore,” Quinn wrote in the New York Times on July 19. She cites Trump’s garish cage matches on the White House lawn on June 14 as a jump-the-shark moment.

Elon Musk is no longer a trillionaire. That’s because the share price of his company SpaceX has dropped to $128, a 37% decline from its peak of $201 just a couple days after it went public in June. Musk owns nearly half of the company, and the drop in the share price has cut his net worth from a peak of $1.4 trillion in June to around $800 billion. Seems like enough.

SAFELY IGNORE:

“The Odyssey,” starring Matt Damon as one of the world’s first protagonists, is a welcome change in what has become a fairly gloomy Hollywood narrative. People are going to the theater to see a blockbuster instead of waiting for it to stream. Plus, people are talking about a 2,800-year-old literary epic and maybe even reading it. One movie won’t change America’s viewing habits, but it’s a refreshing effort.

[The new stock-market trade you should know about]

Contaminated lettuce has sickened thousands and made many others queasy just by thinking about it, since the cyclospora parasite probably got on the leaves from irrigation water contaminated with human feces. But it’s not as bad as salmonella or E. coli, which can be deadly. Most of the bad lettuce has probably been consumed or trashed, so this could be over soon.

Andy Burnham is Britain’s new prime minister, and we bet you can’t name the three PMs who preceded him (answer below1). Some Europeans don’t understand why we have to wait four years for a chance to get rid of Donald Trump. Americans, meanwhile, wonder why parliamentary leaders in Europe come and go like the seasons. At least the royalty sticks around for a while.

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This week’s Matterboard has 11 new items, plus seven carryovers from last week. We ditched Reflecting Pool Follies and eight other items. We’re disappointed that the courageous algae in the National Mall’s reflecting pool have fallen from the headlines, and we hope they come roaring back. But other stuff has pushed them aside.

Here’s a rundown of the Matterboard, by quadrant:

WORTH PAYING ATTENTION TO:

The Iran situationship is an urgent matter once again, as both the US and Iran have resumed attacks on each other. Oil prices have jumped once more, to around $83 per barrel. This could go on for months.

Trump’s self-dealing suffered a setback on July 13 when a federal judge voided the “deal” Trump made with the IRS in May to shield himself from future tax prosecution and set up a fund to compensate allies. The judge referred Todd Blanche, acting attorney general, and another man who is Trump’s personal lawyer to their state bar associations for possible disciplinary action for ethical misconduct. Blanche is up soon for Senate confirmation hearings for the AG job, the nation’s top law-enforcement position. Perfect.

More ICE killings. Immigration agents have killed two more people, one in Maine and another in Texas. That’s at least nine people shot by immigration officials in the last two years. This is a rogue force similar to the internal security thugs that operate in countries like Iran.

Russia is taking a beating, as Ukraine attacks energy facilities deep inside Russia, oil tankers on the high seas, and logistical hubs deep in the battlefield’s rear. Russians have to wait hours and sometimes days for gasoline. Ukraine isn’t necessarily winning, but Russian dictator Vladimir Putin is bringing disaster on his country as the costs of the war hit home.

Job growth is middling and consumers say the job market stinks. With the midterm elections less than four months away, it matters more than usual.

CNN’s future is hazy, given that David Ellison’s Paramount Skydance is due to take over CNN parent Warner Brothers Discovery by the end of September. That’s the same company that recently took over CBS and is now wreaking havoc at CBS News. But there could be a white knight coming for CNN. The attorneys general of 12 states sued to stop the merger, which the Trump administration has already approved. If the deal isn’t done by Sept. 30, Paramount has to start paying financial penalties. Maybe the 12 AGs are hoping to stop the merger simply by delaying it and making Paramount pay.

MIGHT GET SPICY:

GOP midterm cheating will stress-test the US electoral system in November. Trump’s latest effort to rig the election is the firing of all three commissioners at an agency that helps states with federal elections, leaving the agency leaderless.

World Cup video reviews risk marring the splendid tournament, after a goofy overturned call in the Argentina-Switzerland quarterfinal tilted the game toward Argentina. Mystified Americans new to soccer learned one important thing: Video reviews are as tedious in soccer as they are in American football.

The AI stock bubble hasn’t burst yet, but manic swings in semiconductor stocks suggest something crazy is afoot.

$4 gas is coming back, now that the Iran war is hot again and oil prices are surging. Trump desperately wants this to be over by November. Iran desperately wants it not to be.

E. Jean Carroll finally received $5.63 million from President Trump, three years after a jury awarded her the payout as compensation for sexual assault and defamation. Trump tried and failed to get the verdict overturned. Worth noting: Trump complied with a judge’s order to pay the money, in the end.

RESULTS MAY VARY:

The Trump tariffs are still there. His latest scheme was to place 20% tariffs on all cargo shipments leaving the Hormuz Strait, a wacky idea that barely lasted a day. Wherever there’s a problem, Trump sees a tariff.

Nearly a dozen candidates calling themselves Democratic socialists could be heading to Congress this year. It’s astonishing they can’t come up with better branding.

Trump calls it a “big yawn,” but a new housing law passed by Congress could eventually help lower costs for people who aren’t billionaires. Trump didn’t sign the law, but he didn’t veto it either. He just did nothing, and it became law by default. Trump boycotted the signing because he’s pissed Congress won’t pass a separate voting law that could make it harder to vote. We don’t get it either.

The Super Bowl-champ Seattle Seahawks are now the nation’s most valuable sports franchise, fetching a $9.6 billion bid from venture capitalist Vinod Khosla. The bubble in NFL franchises has been going on way longer than the AI bubble.

The Qatari version of Air Force One lacks the security systems of the regular Air Force version, as the New York Times reported on July 8. Trump is so embarrassed by the failures of his luxury jet that his Justice Dept. issued subpoenas to the Times reporters, trying to compel them to reveal their sources. The real villain is the vainglorious Trump, who never should have accepted the Qatari jet or spent hundreds of millions of taxpayer dollars trying to retrofit it to presidential standards.

SAFELY IGNORE:

The death of Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina is sad and unfortunate, and it will make a difference in the interplay between Congress and the Trump White House. But it won’t change the balance of power in the Senate, given that South Carolina is a deep-red state that will undoubtedly replace him with another Republican. For ordinary people parsing the news, there’s not much upshot, except that one of Trump’s most vocal defenders will no longer fill the TV screen.

The share price of Elon’ Musk’s rocket company SpaceX has been sliding for nearly a month. The company went public on June 12 at $135 per share, and peaked at $202 a few days later. But it’s now at $136, basically where it started—a bit of schadenfreude for Musk’s many critics.

Trump has a primetime speech scheduled for July 16. He actually wants to talk about election fraud in 2020, even though there wasn’t any. Yes, we have to endure nearly three more years of this. 😞

Okay sure, some people can, and do. But The Pinpoint Press is for normies, and a big part of our mission is telling you what matters and what doesn’t, to help optimize the fact-to-fluff ratio of the news you consume.

So we’ve created The Matterboard, our weekly assessment of what’s worth your attention and what isn’t. The Matterboard features four quadrants, as you’ll see below. We’re ranking the news based on how important we think it is—the stakes— and how long we think it will matter—the duration.

You might disagree with our assessments or feel like we missed something on the political-economic spectrum. Let us know! Sound off in the comments below, in the Substack notes app, or by sending an email.

We’ll summarize our entries each week by quadrant, starting with what’s most important. Here’s the list as of 7.7.2026, which includes the Graham Platner meltdown in Maine, Trump’s startling intervention in the World Cup, and the rise of the new Democratic socialists:

WORTH YOUR ATTENTION (upper right quadrant):

Ukraine pounding Russia. The Russia-Ukraine war was static for a long time, but Ukraine has found new ways to destroy energy infrastructure deep inside Russia and cause President Vladimir Putin a lot of domestic pain. It could mark a turning point.

Trump’s self-dealing. Roughly 1 million Trump supporters lost $3.8 billion buying the president’s scammy memecoin after he took office last year, demonstrating that Trump will dupe anybody. Even some diehard Trumpers are losing faith as his overall approval rating tanks.

[The Weekly WTF: Icky presidential bedroom]

Iran situationship. There’s a patchy ceasefire, but Iran has shown it is likely to harass ships targeting the Strait of Hormuz for a long time, as it seeks greater control over the whole Persian Gulf region. This could still be going on by the time the next president takes office.

WAIT AND SEE (upper-left quadrant):

Republican efforts to steal the midterm elections. Trump has sent FBI agents to intimidate election workers in Georgia and threatened many other moves to “take over” the November midterms. There are a lot of safeguards, but Trump may still attempt the most brazen election fraud in memory.

Fried oysterman. The Senate Democratic nominee in Maine, Graham Platner, is a plain-speaking oysterman who seemed like a rising star—until an ugly past caught up with him. Now, new allegations of rape have likely doomed his campaign. Dems thought they had a chance to flip the seat long held by Republican Susan Collins, but now they don’t even know who their candidate will be in November. If you’re a political geek, there will be no end of what-went-wrong analyses. For everybody else, the takeaway is: A new Democratic candidate might have a better chance of beating Collins if he or she carries less baggage.

The AI stock bubble. Is there one? Wall Street is split, but if it bursts and the stock market tanks, some worry about a replay of the dot-com bust of the early 2000s. The broader concern is that the huge AI buildout is holding up much of the economy at the moment.

[This is how the AI bubble could burst]

Birthright citizenship outrage. Some extremist Republicans are aghast that the Supreme Court recently upheld birthright citizenship, which has been enshrined in the Constitution since 1868. They want Congressional action to change this right, and some are calling for a ban on pregnant foreigners entering the country, to make sure they can’t give birth on US soil. We think these attack dogs have lost their minds and will soon find something else to bark at.

MEH (lower-right quadrant):

The Trump tariffs. They’ve fallen out of the news since the Iran war and the Trump energy crisis set the whole world on edge. But many Trump tariffs are still intact and his team of protectionists is plotting new ones. Trump will probably keep at it through his entire term.

[The Trump economy is barely improving]

The AI job apocalypse. It keeps not happening. We’re watching for it in every bit of data, but like many economists we also expect AI to create whole new categories of work and innovation.

Congressional housing bill. Congress passed a bipartisan bill meant to improve housing affordability on June 23, and it might actually do some good, over time. Trump, however, has refused to sign it, because he wants Congress to pass other legislation first. If Trump does nothing, the bill will become law soon—but Trump may not get any credit for it.

More Democratic socialists. A handful of Democrats identifying as “socialist” have won primary elections this year and are likely heading to Congress. We’re no fans of socialism, but the numbers are small and the real message these outsiders convey is anti-incumbency. Besides, the Democratic brand is such a wreck that an energized group of outsiders might make it better, not worse.

SAFELY IGNORE (lower-left quadrant):

Trumpflation. We think the rapid drop in energy prices during the last month will bring overall inflation lower and render market concerns about elevated inflation overblown. That won’t solve the affordability crisis, which is a long-term erosion in earning power for millions of Americans. That means Trump’s approval ratings on the economy will likely remain dismal, even if inflation falls—exactly the same thing that happened to President Joe Biden.

Hawkish Federal Reserve. See above. If inflation subsides, the Fed won’t have to raise interest rates this year, as the market currently expects. We think the Fed generates way too much chatter.

Elon Musk in your retirement plan. Musk’s company SpaceX is now part of the NASDAQ 100 index, which means it will be part of index funds that track the NASDAQ. Honestly, so what. If you own index funds, you also own shares of tobacco companies, fossil-fuel drillers and defense contractors. And the S&P 500 index, much more widely followed than that NASDAQ, won’t admit SpaceX for a long time.

[America 250 isn’t as grim as it seems]

World Cup bonhomie. There was poetic justice in Team USA’s loss to Belgium after Trump intervened with FIFA to overturn the one-game suspension of a star American player. The Americans lost anyway, which means the World Cup tournament can once again delight fans without the stench of political interference. The tourney is clearly a feel-good experience for everybody following it, and America, for once, seems like a gracious host. Enjoy it while it lasts.

Crypto winter. At around $64,000, bitcoin has fallen by 50% from its all-time high last October. Trump’s involvement in crypto may have been more like a kiss of death than any kind of endorsement, since it made the whole enterprise seem scammier than ever.

Apple price hikes. Apple stock fell 6% on June 25 after it announced price hikes of a couple hundred dollars on iMacs and iPads. Guess what: It has gained it all back, and then some. Underscores our point that financial media trumpets big moves and trends as they happen, but doesn’t always follow up to tell you what happened next.

Maxxing trends. First it was looks-maxxing, then came body-maxxing, sleep-maxxing, nonna-maxxing, vice-maxxing, and many other types of maxxing. Cliche alert: Too much maxxing. 86 maxxing.

Reflecting pool follies. We love the battle between Trump and the determined algae in the National Mall reflecting pool, who have become so famous that many tourists in the nation’s capital now stop by to see how they’re doing. We plan to milk this story for as long as it delivers delightful absurdity. But we know in our heart of hearts that this is news about nothing and when the weather cools in the fall, Trump will win. Still, the algae have already punched well above their weight. ^🫡

Enjoy a cartoon.

You can order this cartoon👆 and play cartoon-themed puzzles and word games at CartoonStock.com.