The Pinpoint Press Better-Off Index measures the year-over-year change in economic basics everybody can understand: job growth, real-income growth adjusted for inflation, home affordability, and stock values. It addresses a simple question many Americans ask themselves: Am I better off than I was one year ago? (Here’s the methodology.)

The answer is: Just barely. The Better-Off Index for October 2026 is 103.76, which means the conditions we measure, in the aggregate, are 3.8% above levels of October 2025.

But when you remove stocks, the Better-Off Index is just 100.21, which is essentially no improvement at all. And for many Americans, keeping even isn’t nearly good enough.

[5 ways to fix capitalism]

Around 60 percent of Americans own stocks, mostly in retirement plans. With the stock market up 14% year-over-year, people lucky enough to have financial assets are wealthier. But most people with stocks don’t tap those assets for day-to-day living expenses. Only the wealthy use capital gains to finance their regular spending.

Nearly everyone else relies on a paycheck to pay the rent or mortgage, and buy groceries. And that’s where the pain is. Inflation has wrecked earning power. Job growth is far below the levels of the Biden presidency. Rising mortgage rates have made home affordability worse, not better.

Here’s the year-over-year change in each category we measure:

The unemployment rate is low, but weak job growth of just 0.3% during the last year is making workers uneasy. In the Conference Board’s latest confidence survey, the portion of respondents saying jobs are “plentiful” dropped to 23.6%, the lowest level since early 2021—which was the latter stage of the Covid pandemic.

[Why soaring rates aren’t a problem—yet]

We account for inflation by measuring real income, which is income adjusted for inflation. It’s up just 0.35% during the last year, or essentially flat. When purchasing power is flat, workers are not getting ahead. And feeling stuck does not endear voters to their elected leaders.

Home affordability has worsened slightly during the last year, based on data gathered by the Atlanta Federal Reserve that goes through July. Mortgage rates have jumped by about three-quarters of a point since then. That means real-time affordability is worse than the chart above shows, and that line is going to head lower as more data arrives.

Stocks have done well under Trump. But that’s mostly due to the artificial-intelligence buildout and the soaring performance of a small number of companies benefiting from it. The AI craze is propping up the economy and the stock market, but not broadly benefiting the majority of Americans.

Trump’s approval rating has cratered this year, as the Iran war he started in February caused a global energy crisis and sent the price of energy and many other products higher.

Trump’s terrible ratings are the main reason Democrats hope to make sweeping gains in the November midterm elections, likely winning control of the House and possibly the Senate.

[5 things to expect if Democrats win in November]

For historical perspective, the Better-Off Index was considerably higher during the last federal election in November 2024, when Trump beat incumbent Vice President Kamala Harris to win a second presidential term. The index then was 108.87, or more than 5 points higher than current levels. That represented an 8.9% improvement over conditions from one year earlier, compared with the 3.8% improvement now.

The takeaway for Trump is that even with modest year-over-year improvements in 2024, voters were frustrated enough to toss the incumbents and give Republicans complete control of the White House and Congress. Republicans have now performed worse than their predecessors. Voters will soon render their judgment.

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The next-best alternative seems to be socialism, which has never succeeded anywhere yet seems to be the unknown outsider Americans are willing to take a chance on. Approval ratings for socialism have grown to 43% in Gallup polling, the highest level in surveys that date to 2010. Capitalism does better, at 55% approval, but its reputation is fading—and this shouldn’t even be close.

The problem with capitalism isn’t the system itself. The problem is the way we manage it. There are many forms of capitalism, depending on what societies want from it. The Nordic nations use capitalism to provide widespread social benefits, and they’re willing to pay high taxes to enjoy those benefits. American capitalism is flintier. As an individualist nation from birth, we’re more willing to let people fend for themselves. But we have amended laissez-faire capitalism many times, and can do it again.

Here are 5 ways to reform capitalism so that it brings prosperity to more people and ends the fever dream that socialism is somehow better:

1. Protect the golden goose. The American capitalist system generates phenomenal amounts of wealth. More wealth is good. Less wealth is bad. We have a distribution problem, because too much wealth goes to too few people. But that doesn’t mean we should create less wealth by, for example, letting the government run businesses best left to the private sector. We want the strongest possible growth and maximum wealth!

Here’s how the US economy performs compared with other countries some people might think do better. This is total economic output per person:

Small, homogeneous nations such as Singapore and Norway are wealthier than the United States. But no large country is. Any proposal that would degrade the overall performance of the US economy should be a non-starter.

[It’s time to revise the American Dream]

2. Tackle health-care costs. We spend way too much on health care without getting materially better outcomes. Here’s health care spending in the United States, compared with other countries:

This is a longstanding and complicated problem, but the essential conflict is between a for-profit health care sector and the need to better regulate costs and pricing. MIT economist Jon Gruber has many ideas on how to reduce total health care spending, such as cutting overhead and doing more preventive care to cut down on costly emergency room visits. There are many other studies on how to rein in runaway spending.

The United States is basically the only advanced economy that doesn’t have universal health care, with basic medical services available to every citizen. That’s a travesty. Universal coverage would include preventive services for everybody, catching problems early and stopping some of them from becoming chronic or deadly.

Universal coverage does not mean “Medicare for all,” as Bernie Sanders would prefer. Putting all health care under government control would be so disruptive that it’s not feasible. Plus, the employer-sponsored health care system that covers about 160 million Americans works reasonably well. We should leave that more or less alone while getting everybody covered. The Affordable Care Act addressed part of the coverage problem and could be expanded to address the rest. The best possible outcome is a piecemeal system that improves on what we have now, not some bumper-sticker panacea.

[I placed a bet on falling oil prices]

3. Get taxes in line with spending. The United States is a low-tax nation, with an overall tax burden far below levels in most other advanced economies. Here’s the total tax burden, including federal, state and local taxes, by country:

We shouldn’t raise taxes just to raise them. But we’ve already got an obvious problem because the federal government spends about $2 trillion more per year than it takes in. The $40 trillion national debt has now gotten too large, and it’s time to reduce annual deficits as a percentage of GDP. It would be reasonable to raise taxes to finance better health care coverage, as well. But as a country, we’re obdurate about taxes and always want them to be as low as possible.

Wealth taxes, favored by Bernie Sanders and other liberals, are unproven, hard to administer, and possibly illegal. Raising the income tax is a far more reliable way to generate more revenue. We’ve had much higher taxes on the wealthy before, with no obvious harm to the economy. That’s the obvious starting point.

[Believe it or not, the economy is strong]

Raising business taxes is trickier, because it can depress growth, which we shouldn’t do. There are many ideas for gradually raising taxes in ways that don’t upset the economy. We may eventually have to enact a value-added tax, or VAT, similar to a national sales tax, which most advanced nations have.

4. Improve the lot of workers. There’s been a long-term decline in the share of national income going to workers, while the share going to owners has been rising.

This is also a complex problem with no silver-bullet answers. But it’s not unique to the United States, and the biggest cause is probably the onslaught of digital technology, which concentrates wealth among innovators while making some skills obsolete faster than ever.

[Why soaring rates aren’t a problem—yet]

The rise of artificial intelligence presents a good opportunity to give workers a larger share of the assets that generate wealth. That could be more employee ownership of profitable firms, better support programs for displaced workers, higher taxes on capital gains, better worker training linked to the best opportunities, and other types of worker protection programs. Again, there’s plenty of research on possible improvements.

5. Make politicians more accountable. It’s probably no coincidence that worker power has declined at the same time wealthy Americans and corporations can give unlimited amounts of money to political campaigns and basically call the shots. Good-government groups want new limits on campaign donations, stronger ethics laws throughout the government, and other reforms. More open primaries, allowing independents to vote in either the Democratic or Republican contest, could also produce more moderate general-election candidates who aren’t beholden to party orthodoxy and the usual big donors.

If you think this is all hopeless, ask yourself, where is it better? France has some of the world’s most generous social benefits, but it lacks the money to pay for them and is now facing a debt crisis worse than we have here. Singapore has a model economy built on soft authoritarianism and strict rules for public behavior that would never fly here. The Nordic nations prioritize social cohesion in a way bumptious Americans never have.

Yet Americans intensely wary of government overreach have modified capitalism many times by imposing income taxes, establishing a wide array of safety-net programs, breaking up monopolies, and incentivizing activities we feel are important. It’s time for another reboot of American capitalism, and that will be better than any alternative.

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Should you sell your stocks and activate your bugout plan? Probably not. Economists think rising rates in the bond market certainly signal something—just not Armageddon.

“Is the bond selloff a looming debt crisis? Not yet,” economist Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research wrote in an October 5 analysis. “If we had to place the bond market at a point along the spectrum of drivers, it would be closer to the benign side.”

One factor pushing rates higher is the sheer amount of debt being issued by the US government and other nations. The US national debt tops $40 trillion and Washington now routinely borrows $2 trillion per year to fund itself. If there aren’t enough buyers of that debt, rates have to rise, which means Washington has to pay even more to borrow and interest payments might eventually become unsustainable. We may be in the early stages of such a debt spiral.

[Believe it or not, the economy is strong]

But rates are also rising because of the surge in energy prices related to the Iran war—which won’t last forever. Once oil supplies return to normal levels and prices fall, pressure on interest rates could ease.

A third factor pushing rates higher is a reversion to normal after a period of unusually low rates. “For years, yields were below where the economy said they should be,” Jim Bianco of Bianco Research wrote in an October 5 explainer on the bond market. “That is no longer the case.”

The average yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury since 1980 is 5.6%. But from 2009 through 2025, the 10-year rate averaged just 2.72%, roughly half the historical norm. That’s because the Federal Reserve undertook extraordinary measures to slash rates during the Great Recession in 2009, and moved extremely slowly to unwind that stimulus. When Covid hit in 2020, the Fed pushed rates even lower.

[How to profit from rising rates]

That period of abnormally low rates is over. Since the Iran war started in February, the 10-year Treasury rate has jumped from 3.97% to about 5.28%—the highest level since 2002. Even if the rate isn’t that high, historically, fast, unexpected changes in rates can be destabilizing if they rapidly raise borrowing costs for consumers and businesses that aren’t ready for it.

How do we know when we’re in the danger zone?

Read more

About three weeks after it happened, the woman reported the incident to university police. Cornell investigated, banned the Chi Phi fraternity, and expelled two of its members. But nobody ever prosecuted the assailants.

Last month, the woman filed a lawsuit against Cornell, the fraternity, and each of the seven men she says assaulted her. That put the whole thing back in the news and drew renewed attention to the fact that authorities never prosecuted anybody for an alleged rape. On Oct. 1, New York Gov. Kathy Hochul put the state attorney general, Letitia James, in charge of the matter, most likely assuring that heads will roll. But it only happened because the woman filed a lawsuit that happened to make the headlines. If it hadn’t, everybody would be conveniently looking the other way.

[Check out The Weekly Matterboard, where we break down what matters and what doesn’t]

The Cornell rape is not an isolated incident. A 2025 Cornell study found that 35% of female undergrads reported unwanted sexual contact involving force or incapacitation. Assume it’s the same or higher at every other university and other settings where young people mingle. Young men have always been borderline heathens and date-rape drugs make it easier.

Dads of America: This is on you. Your sons are capable of much worse things than you probably imagine. Teach them better. The first rule of adulting: Don’t rape anybody. The second rule of adulting: If you see somebody in trouble, help them! Impress this on your sons relentlessly and don’t let them leave home until they can prove they get it.

[I placed a bet on falling oil prices]

Overkill. Some states have the death penalty. Tennessee practices the maim penalty. The state tried and failed to execute death-row inmate Christa Pike on Sept. 30, leaving her in critical condition and breathing on a ventilator. The details are gruesome. The executioner stuck at least seven needles in her arm while trying to administer a lethal dose of pentobarbital. It sounds as if the drug was entering tissue instead of the bloodstream. One of Pike’s arms turned purple. A lawyer who was present said there was “blistering and burning” around the injection sites. Pike kicked convulsively. The cruel and unusual procedure went on for two hours until an ambulance took Pike away.

This is the second botched execution in Tennessee. In May, the state tried to execute another death row inmate but the executioner couldn’t find a vein and gave up after an hour.

There are no heroes here. Pike is on death row for the brutal 1995 torture and murder of a 19-year-old woman. She deserves severe punishment. But we all deserve competent government, especially in matters of life and death.

Are you smarter than a senator? Yes, you are! Trumpy Republican Sen. Eric Schmitt of Missouri really thought he had a winner. During testimony by Jack Smith, the former prosecutor who led two federal probes of Donald Trump, Schmitt thought he caught a lie. Smith said he had never met with Atlanta prosecutor Fani Willis, who was pursuing a separate case against Trump. But in text messages, Smith had referenced a basketball game he attended on Feb. 3, 2024. And the only NBA game that night was in Atlanta. Proof! Smith must have been to Atlanta, because that was the only NBA game he could have attended, and since he was in Atlanta he must have met with Willis.

[Believe it or not, the economy is strong]

Schmitt carefully laid his trap, getting Smith to say under oath that he was not in Atlanta on that day. He even got a confused Smith to say he had never been in Atlanta the whole time he was running the Trump probe. Then Schmitt sprung the trap, with an aide holding up the damning text messages on a placard and Schmitt saying smugly, “I don’t think you know we have this stuff … you’ve perjured yourself.”

It turns out, however, that there are also college basketball games, and Smith went to see Caitlin Clark and the Iowa Hawkeyes play the University of Maryland in College Park on the date in question. Wrong league, wrong city, wrong premise, and laughable research. Schmitt, for a week at least, is the biggest jackass in Washington.

Here’s a short clip of the relevant testimony. If you appreciate buffoonery, you’ll get a laugh. The Internet, needless to say, rejoiced. Some of the memes: Schmitt for brains, Schmitt-faced, Schmitting your pants, DipSchmitt, Schmitt sandwich.

Also, somebody made this:

Typographical intelligence. On Sept. 29, President Trump signed a “self-policing” pledge with leaders of Google, Meta, OpenAI, Anthropic, and other big AI companies—and misspelled the name of the country it applies to. Under Trump’s signature at the end, it says, “Donald J. Trump, President of the Unites States.” People noticed because Trump posted the document on social media. Four days later, the version with the typo was still there.

Had Trump’s team asked an AI agent to proof the document, it would have caught the mistake. “The spelling error shows how much time and attention went into drafting the document before it was signed and released to the public,” TechCrunch noted. Trump has a laissez-faire attitude toward AI and thinks worries about the damage it could cause are a “hoax.” Maybe he thinks typos are a hoax, too.

[5 things to expect if Democrats win in November]

Pope vs. AI. Pope Leo XIV has pushed back on AI, and now he’s defending human artists against their mechanized competitors. “It is becoming urgent to distinguish human art from what machines produce,” he wrote on X on Oct. 2. “Algorithms lack the spark of humanity.” More than 10 million people saw the post, and nearly 3,000 left comments. Some argued with the pope and said they use AI because they can’t afford human artists.

The battle between human- and machine-generated art will surely escalate. It’s worth asking whether AI will ever view the pope as a barrier to its plans for intergalactic domination, and try to eliminate him. If so, which overlord would you rather side with: God? Or AI?

Target: ICE. The family of Renee Good filed two lawsuits related to the unprovoked killing of the Minnesota woman in January by Trump’s immigration thugs. One suit targets the government for the negligence of a federal official. The other suit targets the immigration agent who shot and killed Good, Jonathan Ross, and several other Trump administration officials. We hope there’s a trial, with discovery, that reveals just how unprofessional and bloodthirsty Trump’s immigration agency has become—and grants the family maximum damages.

Gas job. At the White House on September 30, Trump announced that South Korea will invest $54 billion in a natural gas pipeline project in Alaska. There were no Koreans present, and Korean officials later said there was no such deal. We’ve been through this before, so we know that when Trump says one thing and somebody disputes it—believe the other party.

Alaska Sen. Dan Sullivan, a Republican, is in a tight reelection race, and if Democrats flip his seat in November it could give them control of the Senate. Trump probably figures he can just mutter something about a huge pipeline project and Alaskans will fall in line and vote for his guy. Alaskans, are you that gullible?

Supreme no more. The Supreme Court begins its current term with the lowest ratings in modern times. The portion of Americans who say they trust the judicial branch is just 46%—the lowest ever in Gallup polling that dates to 1972. The approval rating of the Supreme Court itself is just 34%. Before the Trump era, those ratings were routinely 20 points higher.

The Pinpoint view of the court is that political persuasion and the 6-3 conservative majority aren’t the problem. Dishonesty and corruption are. Justice Brett Kavanaugh probably perjured himself during his confirmation hearing. Clarence Thomas has accepted lavish gifts from rich people with business before the court. Samuel Alito appears to be a wacky election denier who supports the 1/6/21 rioters who rampaged through the US Capitol. The court is riddled with self-interest, no different than venal politicians or greedy corporations. Supremely unsatisfying.

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~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~

Here’s what’s new on The Matterboard:

PAY ATTENTION ⚠️

Iran simmers. President Trump mentioned Iran at least 20 times on social media during the last week—yet nothing has changed. Brent crude remains close to $100 per barrel, with gas and diesel prices far higher than they were when Trump took office. The war that Trump said would last a few weeks is now in its eighth month.

Blue wave odds remain high. The Kalshi odds of a Democratic sweep in the November midterm elections remain around 62%. The respected Cook Political Report recently shifted its forecasts for 15 House races toward Democrats, which would give them control of the House. Democrat Sherrod Brown now looks like he could win a Republican-controlled Senate seat in Ohio.

[5 things to expect if Democrats win in November]

Research firm Veda Partners predicts that Brown will win in Ohio, but that Republicans will hold onto tightly contested Senate seats in Alaska, Texas, Maine, Iowa and Kansas. That would leave the GOP with 51 seats and Senate control. If Dems win Ohio plus two other states and don’t lose Michigan, they’ll take the Senate.

We reiterate that midterm polling is sketchy and often wrong.

MIGHT GET SPICY 🤔

Terrorism threats seem intense. The pilot who nearly hijacked a FlyDubai passenger jet heading from Dubai to Tel Aviv on Sept. 30 might have flown it into an Israeli building or population center if he had succeeded—like a mini 9-11 attack. Remarkable action by the second pilot and some of the passengers prevented a major catastrophe and the death of more than 170 aboard the plane.

There was a weird event in the UK on Sept. 27 in which five men were arrested near a British air base that hosts US jets—then released. Prime Minister Andy Burnham says Iran might have been involved in … whatever was going on, which is still not publicly known. The obvious implication is that somebody affiliated with Iran was trying to harm US troops or sabotage US planes or other equipment. Why the UK released the suspects, then said they might be linked with Iran, is a puzzle.

Recall that there may have been an Iranian effort to shoot down Air Force One with Trump aboard when he was in Turkey in July. Iran is a well-known sponsor of terrorism and is almost certainly looking for ways to attack Americans or American interests. If one such attack succeeds, it won’t be a one-time event. It will trigger US retaliation and second- and third-order effects that are hard to predict.

[I placed a bet on falling oil prices]

Jerome Powell wins another round. The former Federal Reserve chair did nothing wrong in association with the renovation of Fed headquarters, according to the central bank’s inspector general. Nobody thought Powell did anything wrong—except Trump, who was looking for ways to force Powell out of the job before his tenure ended in May. The vindication of Powell is a win for Fed independence and for markets.

Maybe reputable auditors should investigate Trump’s handling of the Kennedy Center, the White House ballroom, the reflecting pool, and other DC landmarks and see if Trump abides by the same standards as Powell.

Interest rates under Trump have hit the highest levels in more than 20 years. The benchmark 10-year Treasury rate is at 5.29%, the highest since 2002. The average rate on a 30-year mortgage is now 7.3%, up 1.3 percentage points since the Iran war started in February. That adds $175 to the monthly payment on a $400,000 mortgage, or an extra $2,000 per year.

[How to make money on rising interest rates]

Trump might invoke the Insurrection Act to cheat in the midterms. In an interview with Time, Trump said, “I could use it. A lot of people think I should use it.” There is no insurrection and there won’t be one on Election Day. And the only people who think Trump should invoke the 1807 law are the dictator-class mandarins who shine Trump’s shoes. Trump might just be trolling his many critics, but voters should be prepared for just about anything come November.

RESULTS MAY VARY 🤷‍♂️

The impeachment of Pete Hegseth won’t come until at least November, when the midterms are over. But he keeps providing fresh material for inquisitors. In a “state of the force” speech, the incompetent defense secretary said his department will create an “office of religious affairs” that will “report straight to the top.” Report on what? Compliance with some religious code? As a reminder, Hegseth is running a war AGAINST A THEOCRACY. And running it incredibly badly.

Hegseth also said Elon Musk will help run a new project on the future of warfare. Is there anybody in America who really wants more Elon Musk? Anybody?

AI firms will self-police as the best way to assure their groundbreaking new technology doesn’t destroy humanity. That’s the pledge the leaders of AI firms such as Meta, OpenAI, Anthropic, Nvidia made at a meeting with Trump on September 29. Feel better? Neither does anybody else.

SAFELY IGNORE 🚫

The United States got two new pandas from China. These are the “envoys of friendship” Chinese dictator Xi Jinping promised to deliver when he met with Trump last week. The pandas will reside at the Atlanta Zoo. More pandas are better than fewer. But they won’t stop China from stealing western technology, menacing Taiwan, or making all the other types of trouble it has become adept at.

Trump’s ban on some Canadian imports went into effect September 29. The blacklist includes certain types of alcohol, motorcycles and dairy products. You probably won’t notice, but thousands of dumb trivialities add up to one dumb monstrosity of a trade war.

[The Weekly WTF: America’s worst TV channel]

JB Pritzker lost 80 pounds, and it might be a political issue. The Democratic governor of Illinois is likely to run for president in 2028, and political analysts are debating whether his dramatic weight loss from the use of GLP-1 drugs is an asset or liability, candidate-wise. Pro: Using GLP-1s to control a lifelong weight problem linked with diabetes makes Pritzker relatable. Con: It seems like he’s sculpting a phony image.

We’re bullish on the dramatic improvement GLP-1s can bring to the health and lifestyle of millions. We’re agnostic on whether presidential candidates should use them to improve their electability. As for Pritzker, he’s the billionaire scion of the Hyatt hotel family, and we feel like there are enough billionaires running things. We’d prefer a qualified bootstrapper, no matter how much he or she might weigh.

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Oil, gasoline, and diesel prices have been elevated since the first day of the war. The pre-war price of West Texas Intermediate, the US oil benchmark, was $67 per barrel. It went as high as $113 in April and is now around $89. Everybody knows about the corresponding spike in gasoline prices, from $3 per gallon before the war to around $4.50 now.

But this [probably] can’t last, and I put my money where my guess is. I placed a $50 bet on Kalshi on September 29 wagering that oil prices will be lower than $75 per barrel at the end of the year. That was the lowest price I could find a market for. I’d be willing to bet that prices fall below $70, but I think that’s probably the floor.

[5 things to expect if Democrats win in November]

Here’s my reasoning. Though Iran seems intransigent, the US blockade of its ports is stopping most of the country’s oil exports and squeezing its economy. The ruling mullahs need that oil revenue. That’s how they stay in power and finance all the regional proxy groups that wreak havoc on their behalf. Iran’s leaders talk a big game about menacing the Strait of Hormuz until Trump leaves office in 2029. But that’s bluster.

Read more

• Statement of the obvious to say gas and diesel prices are way too high and it’s a disastrous outcome of Trump’s war with Iran. A more competent president would have anticipated this.

• Nobody needs to tell Americans how much extra it costs to fill up their tank. Before the war, a 15-gallon fill-up cost $45. Now it costs $68. So far, pricier gasoline has cost the typical household more than $500, according to the Watson Institute at Brown University.

[Believe it or not, the economy is strong]

• Most people don’t buy diesel, which makes it harder to gauge the cost crunch for a typical family. But record high diesel prices raise the cost of planting, harvesting, and transporting food, and shipping most consumer products. Higher diesel prices have cost the typical household another $412, according to the Watson Institute. Total cost of the Iran war: $915 per household, and counting.

• Interest rates are rising for a variety of reasons, with the average mortgage rate now above 7%. How painful is that? Let’s look at the history of mortgage rates.

• A 7% mortgage rate isn’t unusual. In fact, it’s close to the historical average, if you go back decades. What has been unusual is the last 18 years, with rates much lower than usual, largely thanks to Federal Reserve monetary stimulus measures that began with the Great Recession in 2008.

• So we’re now reverting to more normal interest rate levels. But this is happening with home prices that are unusually high.

• When mortgage rates fall, home prices tend to rise, since cheaper mortgages boost demand and that sends prices higher. There was a dramatic jump in prices during the Covid pandemic that started in 2020, mainly because the Fed slashed interest rates to record lows. You can see the dynamic in both charts, starting in 2020: Rates plunge, prices soar.

[The Weekly WTF: America’s worst TV channel]

• As mortgage rates have been rising, home prices have begun to drop—a little. But the market is still way out of whack and is likely to stay that way for a while. The biggest problem is there’s not enough lower-priced housing. Local zoning rules and other regulations make it hard to build. Developers would rather build mansions with high profit margins than entry-level homes or multifamily units.

• Trump’s policies have made the housing problem worse. His tariffs have raised the cost of lumber and other building materials at a time when homes are already pricey. His deportation policies have thinned out the construction workforce and pushed labor costs higher. Congress passed a law over the summer meant to create incentives for more affordable housing, which might help. But it will take years.

[5 things to expect if Democrats win in December]

• The Pinpoint Press has been arguing that it’s time to rethink the American Dream. Home ownership has been the main way ordinary families built wealth for decades. But there are other ways to get ahead. Shrewd investing is easier than ever, with low transaction costs. You can start an investment account with a couple hundred dollars. Financial investments carry risk, but that declines the longer your time horizon. And you can invest in ways that limit your risk to whatever you’re comfortable with.

• The amount of financial wealth in the United States now exceeds the amount of real-estate wealth. The richest Americans own most of those financial assets—but there’s no rule that says only the wealthy can own stocks and other assets. If you think owning a home is the simplest or fastest way to build wealth, you might be missing out.

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Then there’s the economy. Many Americans might be surprised, but the US economy is strong. That can also push up rates, because buoyant spending means more demand for products, higher prices, and more inflationary pressure.

“The slowdown feared early this year never arrived,” economist Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research explained in a recent analysis. “The labor market remains strong.” Among the solid indicators: Consumer spending is up, business investment is robust, job growth is steady, and unemployment is low.

The Atlanta Federal Reserve’s GDPNow tool pegs third-quarter real GDP growth at 5%. That would be more than twice the average growth rate since 2022. That estimate could decline by the time official GDP figures come out at the end of October. But even 3% growth would be stronger than the post-Covid average.

For millions of struggling Americans, President Trump is the loudest source of cognitive dissonance. Trump repeatedly touts “the greatest economy in American history,” a claim he hopes will save his fellow Republicans from a bloodbath in the midterm elections on November 3.

[5 things to expect if Democrats win in November]

What most Americans see, however, is gasoline prices driven to $4.50 per gallon by Trump’s Iran war and the energy crisis it caused. Diesel prices, at record highs around $6.50 per gallon, portend months of higher food costs. Overall inflation is persistently high and getting worse, not better. And inflation is growing faster than incomes, which means the typical worker’s paycheck buys less.

Read more

Trump launched “Trump TV: The Essentials Station” on September 21, after he banned several news organizations from the White House press pool. Trump’s assumption seems to be that Americans would rather watch a stream of disorganized bloviation instead of crisply packaged news with context and explanatory material. A Washington Post reporter watched Trump TV for 24 hours and provided this review: “It not only lacks the polish of news professionals, it is also missing the pageantry of an authoritarian state-run news network.”

I checked it out around 2 pm on a weekday and there were 530 people watching a rerun of Trump participating in a signing ceremony on January 14, 2026. A signing ceremony for what? It didn’t say. But there was a jug of milk on the desk, so maybe it had something to do with dairy farmers. You can catch Trump TV here if you have already cleaned every closet in your house, you have no friends and nothing to do, an electromagnetic pulse has knocked out every other channel, and there’s not a thing in the house to read.

[Check out The Weekly Matterboard, Drone-Launching Triumphal Arch edition]

Socialism rising. Capitalism has a huge branding problem. Though it is far superior to socialism, a lot of people don’t know that and are rooting for the wrong team. A Gallup survey just found that 43% of Americans have a positive view of socialism, the highest level in polling that dates to 2010. Capitalism does better, with 55% approval, but this should be a rout, not a tight race.

We think there’s confusion over the word “socialism,” which connotes authoritarianism to older people but is more like capitalism-lite to younger Americans. After all, anybody who remembers the gloomy, despotic USSR knows it was the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics. But younger folks see capitalism as a rigged system where Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg control everything and ordinary people just do what they say. They’re not completely wrong, given the recent rise of the American oligarchy.

But there’s a lot of confusion, even in the survey itself. Americans strongly approve of “small business” and “free enterprise,” for instance—but you can’t have either without capitalism. So which is it, people? We’ll have more reporting on this topic soon, because what people really seem to want is what you might call social capitalism, or capitalism that makes all of society better. We’ll be offering some ideas on what that might look like.

[The Weekly WTF: Gas is a bargain, and other Trump knee-slappers]

Politician held accountable! New Jersey’s Lt. Gov., Dale Caldwell, resigned on September 25 after an investigation found evidence of sexual harassment and other problems. Caldwell denied the allegations, but finally stepped down after the state’s governor and other top officials said he should go. It’s quite astounding. We’ve grown accustomed to corrupt officials staying in office forever and even getting reelected. Something strange is happening in New Jersey.

Love him! Your taxpayer dollars are paying for a 30-second Trump political ad that’s been airing on Fox News and Newsmax. The ad features Trump railing against communism and Marxism, with lists of Trump’s imagined accomplishments flashing on the screen (“reigniting American manufacturing”). “Love Me” by JMSN plays in the background. This would all be fine, except at the end, the ad’s mandatory disclosure statement says, “paid for by the US government.”

That’s probably illegal. Federal law bars the use of government resources for political campaigns. A Trump spokesmodel said it can’t be a political ad because Trump isn’t running in 2026. That’s hokum, given that Trump has a direct stake in the outcome of the midterm elections, which will in large measure be a referendum on Trump himself. Oh, and JMSN said he didn’t authorize the use of his song in the ad, and wouldn’t have if asked. He might sue. Some ad.

Cocaine finds a way. Blowing up boats might be Pete Hegseth’s idea of a good time, but it hasn’t done much to stem the cocaine trade, according to reporting by the Washington Post. Operation Southern Spear, as it’s known, began last year and has so far involved the aerial bombardment of at least 79 boats in the Caribbean and Eastern Pacific, killing at least 234. This was supposed to scare drug traffickers away.

It didn’t. Government studies found that those attacks haven’t reduced the supply of cocaine entering the United States, according to the Post. Prices have remained steady, another sign of robust supply. Drug traffickers have changed tactics, moving away from the fast boats US forces have been blowing up on open water, and shipping more drugs via commercial ships and routes closer to the coastline.

[5 things to expect if Democrats win in November]

You could argue, well, if the US boat attacks are forcing cartels to change tactics, then maybe they’re worthwhile. Except that human rights activists say they could be war crimes because they target noncombatants. Plus, those attacks have probably killed innocents with no connection to drug cartels who were targeted by mistake. The four-star admiral who was in charge of the region when the Spear campaign began resigned last December, reportedly because he had concerns about the legality of the whole campaign.

A principled strategy would be, when in doubt, don’t kill people. The Pentagon seems to have the opposite ethos.

Forsaking Dolly. Just one month after music legend Dolly Parton died, there’s an ugly dispute over—what else?—her money. Parton had no kids and her husband died last year. Her estate is worth around $450 million. Her nephew Bryan Seaver, long her head of security, has reportedly made some aggressive moves to corner a chunk of that money. Parton’s manager, Danny Nozell, fired Seaver shortly after Parton died, claiming some sort of shakedown effort. There’s a lawsuit and there may be a trial.

Humanity never fails to disappoint. Dolly Parton was a creative genius and a national treasure. Most others are neither.

[How to profit from rising interest rates]

So that’s why you didn’t get the job! Your coffee says a lot about you—especially at a job interview. Somebody on TikTok started complaining about young job applicants bringing iced coffee to job interviews. What’s wrong with it? The plastic cup might dribble. The straw might slurp. Your hand might be clammy from holding it. You might seem like you care more about the coffee than the job. It’s informal, like sandals. Disrespectful!

Of course, there’s an alternate view, which is: Get a life, corporate prigs. The debate has now blossomed into a media frenzy in which everybody has an opinion. The Wall Street Journal helpfully explained that this is really a proxy battle pitting corporate fossils against young upstarts who have no respect for their elders or the Proven Ways.

Here’s an idea: Pour your iced coffee into one of the four dozen lidded tumblers everybody seems to have in the cupboard these days. Stick a napkin in your pocket in case of emergency. And if you actually know of an open job, be smart and keep it to yourself.

Enjoy a cartoon.

You can order this cartoon👆 and play cartoon-themed puzzles and word games at CartoonStock.com.

~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~

Here’s what’s new on The Matterboard:

PAY ATTENTION ⚠️

Iran war, ad infinitum. President Trump and the Iranian President, Masoud Pezeshkian, each gave windy speeches at the United Nations this week. Nothing changed. Everybody in America wants the Iran war to end, which is probably why Iran wants to keep it going. The war is so unpopular that House Speaker Mike Johnson—a top Trump ally—is now calling for an end to it. That’s meaningless, except it reveals that Republicans know Trump’s war is politically toxic to their party. Too bad. The Iran war is a disaster and Trump’s party deserves whatever drubbing it gets in November.

The likelihood of a blue wave in November is soaring. Prediction market Kalshi puts the odds of a Democratic midterm sweep—in which they win control of both the House and Senate—at more than 60%. The odds of Dems winning at least one chamber of Congress, allowing them to block the GOP legislative agenda, are 92%.

[5 things to expect if Democrats win in November]

These odds seem high. Midterm polling is notoriously unreliable and several improbable things would have to occur for Dems to win the Senate. Still, it’s undeniable that Trump has almost single-handedly reignited inflation and made many millions of voters worse off. Something momentous should happen in November.

Record-high diesel prices above $6.50 per gallon have led to the possibility of Trump banning the export of diesel fuel, on the premise that it would create more US supply and bring prices down. That could happen for a short time. But then it would probably backfire.

[Why voters are down on the Trump economy]

US refiners produce more diesel than Americans consume, mostly along the Gulf Coast. If they end up with more diesel than they can sell, they’ll cut capacity or devote it to something else, which would lower supply and put upward pressure on prices all over again. And if the US bans diesel exports, other countries might stop sending diesel (and winter heating fuel) to the northeastern United States and other parts of the country far from the Gulf Coast, which get energy cheaper from foreign suppliers than from Gulf Coast refineries. So you might end up with lower diesel prices near the Gulf Coast refineries and all sorts of problems everywhere else. (Here’s a good explainer.) A better idea than banning diesel exports: End the Iran war!

MIGHT GET SPICY 🤔

The American gestapo known as ICE immigration agents shot an unarmed DoorDash driver in the back in Austin, Texas on Sept. 22. The man was in his car when the ICE agent fired. The ICE shooter was issued a body camera but wasn’t wearing it. Another ICE officer was wearing a body camera but it didn’t capture the shooting. So as usual, subprofessional standards and no accountability for ICE. The victim may be an undocumented migrant ultimately deported by a judge. But shooting him is a human rights abuse. On the same day, ICE agents beat up a US citizen in suburban Chicago after confusing him with somebody they were seeking to arrest. After realizing their mistake, they left him on the ground for local police to tend to. He sustained injuries, went to the hospital, and will probably sue this rogue agency. ICE is a public menace. If we had anybody competent in charge, they’d gut the whole place and start from scratch under the tightest possible supervision.

Donald Trump Jr. must be hard up for money, because a Russian oligarch who’s a buddy of Russian dictator Vladimir Putin paid for part of his lavish wedding in the Bahamas in May. Now, several Republican members of Congress (along with every Democrat) want to investigate Don Jr.’s Russian ties. Sounds right. Congress exhaustively investigated Hunter Biden’s sweetheart deals in Ukraine. Don Jr.’s Russian connections are more ominous. Bring it.

Democrats filed a lawsuit meant to prevent Trump and his federal agents from interfering in the midterm elections, as Trump and other administration officials have suggested they might. The suit seeks court orders that would explicitly prohibit federal officials from monitoring voters, wearing tactical gear, brandishing weapons, peddling bullshit, or doing anything else that might intimidate voters near polling zones or ballot drop boxes up to or during Election Day on November 3.

Interest rates are spiking, with mortgages now averaging 7.25%, the highest level since 2023. The 2023 surge turned out to be a blip that lasted about four months, before rates fell below 7% again. That might not happen this time. Rates are rising because inflation has reignited, borrowers are starting to worry about the gigantic national debt, and a lot of corporate debt is now hitting the market to fund the AI buildout. If rates go much higher, it could ding stocks and maybe hurt the economy.

[How to profit from rising interest rates]

The punkish Pete Hegseth may face an impeachment effort in Congress once the November midterms wrap up. Some Republicans want to go after the Defense Secretary for his role as Trump’s Iran war enabler and all sorts of other turmoil he’s causing in the military. We called for Hegseth’s ouster all the way back in April. He’s profoundly unqualified for one of the most important jobs in government and capable of doing way more harm to the country than an incompetent Labor or Interior secretary.

[What the bond market wants you to know]

RESULTS MAY VARY 🤷‍♂️

Facebook parent Meta may have a hit. The company’s Muse AI app is the No. 1 download on Apple’s app store and it’s getting solid reviews for actually being useful. Muse is designed to do tasks for you, such as shop online. So instead of making suggestions, it goes the distance and handles purchases. Here’s one sign of its possible success: Amazon hates it, because if humans aren’t looking at Amazon, then Amazon is going to have a hard time selling ads and sponsored positions. Slate has this interesting review of Muse. (Has anybody tried it? Let me know what you think!)

SAFELY IGNORE 🚫

Trump hates the press because he can’t stand criticism, so he tried to ban CNN, MS Now and Politico from briefings and other activities at the White House. A judge said no, and after it looked like Trump might defy the order, the White House backed down and allowed access to the news agencies once again. The best part of this showdown is the solidarity other networks showed—including Fox News, which sometimes functions as a Trump PR organ—by refusing to participate in White House pool feeds. That left Trump without a microphone when he tried to give public remarks at the White House helipad on September 22. His lips moved, but nobody watching the White House’s own feed could hear what he said. We think this would make a great permanent arrangement.

Fresh measles cases in Pennsylvania bring the state’s 2026 tally to more than 800, including four deaths. Almost all cases involve unvaccinated people. Trump’s goofy Health Secretary, Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., has said those measles deaths may be fabricated, and the federal Centers for Disease Control won’t acknowledge them, either. When people are dying and you pretend it isn’t happening, you’ve gone mad.

The fancy meeting between Trump and China’s president-for-life, Xi Jinping, isn’t likely to produce any meaningful developments on trade, the pace of AI development, or the Iran war. But it did generate one thing: opprobrium among China hawks, including some Republicans, who thought Trump’s pampering of Xi was reprehensible, given that Xi’s government steals American business and military secrets and hopes to displace American influence in many parts of the world.

[How Trump softened up on China]

Trump signed a deal with Greenland that will prevent competing nations—including China!—from setting up shop on the strategically located island and allow greater use by the US military. That’s good. Why didn’t Trump just do that in the first place, without the needless drama of threatening to invade or annex Greenland?

The “triumphal arch” Trump wants to build near Washington, DC, will double as a storage silo for drones and ammo and serve as a perch for snipers, according to Trump. It’s a brilliant idea that might speed construction of the arch, since military installations bypass some zoning requirements. Alas, as a military project, the cost of the arch will promptly balloon to $40 billion, with subcontractors in every state and probably a taste for the Trump children, who are now defense contractors. Congressional audits will ensue, while cost overruns will generate lawsuits over who’s responsible for the delays. The whole project might not be finished until long after Trump leaves office.

Wouldn’t that be a shame.

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But it’s a good opportunity to ask, are we still engaged in a trade war with China? After all, Trump risked a stock-market blowup in the spring of 2025 when he launched his “Liberation Day” tariffs, which Wall Street promptly dubbed “Obliteration Day,” because the stock market tanked. For a few weeks in the spring of 2025, the Trump tariffs on some Chinese imports went as high as 145%.

It’s a very different story now. Import taxes are substantially higher under Trump, with Americans paying the cost. But Trump is nowhere near the trade gunslinger he was at the start of his second term. China, for one, called his bluff and retaliated effectively. It restricted exports of certain semiconductor and rare-earth minerals, threatening U.S. auto, defense, and high-tech supply chains. China has a near monopoly on some of those products, making US dependence a major vulnerability.

[5 things to watch for if Democrats win in November]

China also slashed purchases of US farm goods such as soybeans, pork, corn, and wheat, sourcing them from other countries. The two countries struck a trade truce last October, with Trump lowering tariffs on Chinese goods and China pledging to resume US food purchases. But Chinese purchases are picking up slowly. That’s now a political vulnerability for Trump among rural voters in farm country who thought Trump had their back.

Tariff rates show the extent of Trump’s backpedaling. The average tariff on Chinese imports soared from 11% to 48% during Trump’s first few months in office. It has now drifted back to about 22%—not as draconian as before, but double the rate Trump started with.

Read more

Odds of a Democratic sweep are surging. Prediction-market Kalshi says there’s a 61% chance of Democrats winning both the House and Senate. That’s the highest it’s been this year, by far. The next most likely outcome is a Democratic House and Republican Senate, at 30%. Markets think the odds of Republicans holding both houses are less than 10%.

If Democrats do take both houses, it will be a thrilling rebuke to Trump for party stalwarts. But the fun might end there. The odds of Democrats winning a filibuster-proof Senate margin of 60 seats are basically nil, which means Democrats would still need some Republican votes in the Senate to pass partisan legislation.

Even then, Trump could veto any legislation he doesn’t like. It takes two-thirds of both the House and the Senate to override a veto, which means it won’t happen barring dire circumstances. Democratic priorities include more affordable health care, food, child care, and housing, plus higher taxes on the wealthy and more green-energy development. Meaningful action will mostly be out of reach.

But there’s still a lot at stake. If you’re wondering how much your midterm vote might matter, here are 5 things to watch for if Democrats win in November.

More aggressive oversight. Party leaders control the congressional agenda, and if Democrats take charge, they’re certain to mount investigations of possible corruption by Trump and his family, the Epstein files, the DOGE cuts, the conduct of the Iran war, the Kennedy Center fiasco, and many other things. Congress has subpoena power and its investigations can uncover a lot.

Read more

There’s been a lot of coverage of how rising rates affect home buyers and anybody else taking out a loan. Basically, loans cost more and costs go up, duh. That’s bad for consumers.

But rising rates also mean higher returns for investors, as long as you know where to look. A quarter-point hike may not sound like a lot. But we’re in a rising-rate environment, and it’s possible that interest rates might be resetting higher for the foreseeable future. That can add up, which means it might be time for investors to rotate a bit more money into the right bond funds.

There are different types of interest rates, based on the underlying securities that set them. They can be very different. US Treasury securities, for example, range from four weeks at the short end to 30 years at the long end. Most ordinary investors don’t hold bonds anymore. Instead, they own money-market funds that invest in short-term assets, and other kinds of mutual funds and ETFs with diversified holdings. This makes the investments liquid compared with bonds you’d hold until they fully mature.

Beware bonds?

Bonds and bond funds are more complicated than stocks, because there’s both a price and a yield, and they move in opposite directions. For simplicity, this discussion will focus on money-market funds. There are many guides to the broader world of bonds at sites such as Investopedia, Morningstar and every major brokerage.

[The Weekly WTF: Trump says gas is cheap]

The return on money-market funds during the last decade has been low because interest rates have been relatively low. But that’s changing, as the following chart illustrates. It shows the yield on the 10-year Treasury note, which is set by markets, the short-term rate the Fed sets, and the yield or return on a typical money-market fund, using Fidelity’s main MMF as a proxy. (If you want to get into the weeds on the difference between rates and yields, here’s a good place to start.)

Read more

New standard for useless politician. Republican Sen. Mitch McConnell of Kentucky is alive, technically. He’s been seen breathing. But McConnell seems to be impaired in ways that would force just about any other 84-year-old worker into immediate retirement.

McConnell endured some kind of fall and maybe a heart attack in June. He basically disappeared for three months, sparking speculation that he died. Then he resurfaced when the Senate reconvened in September. But something is obviously wrong. Here’s a video of aides wheeling McConnell into a van on Capitol Hill. At one point he gives the camera a thumbs-up, signaling awareness. But once in the van he stares straight ahead like a zombie (or a dementia patient). There’s another video of McConnell casting a committee vote, in which a fellow senator has to tell him how to vote, as if McConnell doesn’t know where he is or what he’s doing. At other committee votes, McConnell was a no-show.

[Check out The Weekly Matterboard, Trump KissCam Edition]

It’s undignified for aides or party hacks or family members or whoever’s doing it to use an elderly man for what are obviously political purposes. But it’s even more ridiculous that somebody so infirm can be a “public servant.”

At least the memes are good. Here’s McConnell making a cameo appearance in “Weekend at Bernie’s.” Here’s McConnell going off a ski jump in his wheelchair. Here’s McConnell riding a bronco at a rodeo. Here he is doing acrobatics. Remember, when the only choices are to laugh or cry, choose laughter.

Trump says gas is cheap. We remind readers that while The Weekly WTF may be snarky and sarcastic, it is not fictional. Trump actually did say that gasoline, at an average price of $4.47 per gallon, is cheap.

While discussing gas prices during a speech in North Carolina on September 16, Trump said, “it’s a very inexpensive price to pay for what we’ve done…. Frankly, even if it was a lot more.”

What has Trump’s Iran war done, anyway? When he started the war on February 28, Trump said ordinary Iranians could “take over your government” once the despotic theocracy was gone. The despots are still in charge and ordinary Iranians are more miserable than ever as they cope with a crumbling economy and runaway inflation.

Oil prices have averaged $95 per barrel since Trump started the war, up from an average of $68 in 2025. Higher gas and diesel prices have so far cost the typical household an extra $840. That doesn’t include the government’s $40 billion cost, which is borrowed money added to the $40 trillion national debt.

[An Iran war breakthrough might be coming]

We suspect Trump has never filled a gas tank or paid for gas with his own money. His Iran war has done nothing for anybody except make life more expensive.

Pentagon beauty contest. If you’re a military servicemember and you want to attend incompetent Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s “state of the force” event on September 30, you must have a waist-to-height ratio below .55 along with “impeccable grooming standards.” You must also be perfectly clean-shaven. No beards allowed. If you have a mustache, it cannot extend below the top lip line or surpass the corners of the mouth. Sideburns must be trimmed in a horizontal line. Somebody leaked those requirements to the Wall Street Journal, probably to remind everybody what an effete punk Hegseth is. The Journal reported the details on September 15.

If you attend this event, you’ll also need an incredibly high tolerance for bullshit, because Hegseth will probably praise the warrior force he thinks he built while overlooking all the damage he has caused. For starters, Hegseth guided Trump into one of the dumbest wars in American history. Demoralized troops are on extended deployments to fight a never-ending Iran war most Americans disapprove of. Munitions are running short and Navy ships are breaking down. Oh, there’s also a new effort to impeach Hegseth in the House of Representatives—led by one of his fellow Republicans. If Hegseth were to be honest, he’d says the state of the force is a farce, starting with the leadership.

Athlete soilings. What’s the right way to say this? There’s been an awkward public discussion recently about elite athletes pooping in the midst of competitions. Not during a bathroom break. You can’t afford to take a bathroom break if you’re competing. You just poop where you are and keep on moving, as if nothing unusual happened.

[Why AI might try to eliminate humanity]

This all came up because Australian athlete Joanna Wietrzyk had a bout of diarrhea while competing at an endurance event known as Hyrox in Beijing on September 12. Diarrhea streamed down her legs, getting on the running track and other equipment. Cameras caught it all. Wietrzyk kept going—and actually won.

What would you have done? Stopped or continued? What if you were officiating the event? Would you stop everything right then and there, or just let athletes be athletes and clean it up later?

Wietrzyk’s first reaction was, what’s the big deal? “A win is a win,” she said on social media. A shitstorm ensued. Critics said she was inconsiderate and blamed the event organizers for allowing other athletes to compete amid “biohazards.” The organizer issued a statement acknowledging it was dealing with “increasingly complex situations” in part because it pushes athletes to the max.

[It’s time to revise the American Dream]

The media pounced on the story, running pixilated images obscuring the diarrhea, somehow making it seem more ghastly than it probably was. Wietrzyk backtracked, apologizing to the whole world for having to see diarrhea, and saying she should have “stepped off the track” instead of plowing through the crap. She gave up the victory. Hyrox said it updated its rulebook and will now disqualify athletes if they’re responsible for body-fluid contamination.

We think the lesson from this incident is a simple one: When in doubt, get to a bathroom.

Just sports … and sex. There’s a new sports-betting app trying to lure young, horny men with boobs and other female body parts. Is anybody surprised?

Okay, nobody’s surprised. But some people are pissed. The app is called Novig and its shtick is that it only does sports—no politics or IPOs, as Kalshi and Polymarket do. One of the owners is pinup actress Sydney Sweeney, famous for nude scenes that dudes go crazy over. Launch ads for Novig feature Sweeney, naked, with a pair of footballs barely covering her breasts, and other cheeky poses with sports equipment. Get it, guys? Hot blonde … sports betting …. hand over your money.

Real female athletes called Sweeney a poseur and bashed her for sexualizing women in sports. Gymnast Gracie Kramer, as one example, dinged Sweeney while posting this homage to women athletes on Instagram. 10/10!

Nobody involved with Novig is apologizing. Novig CEO Jacob Fortinsky explained the ads by saying the goal was to “close the gap from a brand-awareness perspective.” Guess what: It worked. Nobody had heard of Novig a month ago. Now just about every sports bro who lusts for Sydney Sweeney knows where to place his bets.

Enjoy a real cartoon.

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Here’s what’s new on The Matterboard:

PAY ATTENTION ⚠️

The Iran war has a new front, with Iranian proxies in Iraq attacking a Saudi oil pipeline and the Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen now blocking some oil shipments in the Red Sea. But there are also signs Persian Gulf petrostates working with US Central Command are finding new ways to move oil through the Strait of Hormuz and check Iranian efforts to control the vital waterway. Gulf nations are also rapidly building new ports, pipelines and other infrastructure as alternatives to waterborne shipping through Hormuz. Iran’s leverage may have peaked. More details here.

Record prices for diesel, however, will prolong the energy crunch and its inflationary effects. Diesel has hit a record high of $6.45 per gallon, and that will raise prices for food and just about any product shipped by truck. Diesel prices are spiking partly because of higher oil prices caused by the Iran war, and partly by other factors. Refining capacity is extremely tight and that’s contributing. The Russia-Ukraine war has impacted Russian supplies of diesel and other refined products. Experts could have forewarned that many of these things would happen when Trump started the Iran war all the way back in February. He didn’t bother consulting any of them.

Democratic blue wave? With the midterm elections less than two months away, we’ve added the possibility of a Democratic blue wave to the Matterboard. We don’t obsess over politics like a lot of media outlets that have been handicapping the possible outcomes for months. Yet the election is obviously important and it’s time to start digging into the details. The University of Virginia’s Center for Politics has some handy graphics showing the status of the battle for control of the House and Senate. Democratic takeover of the House seems likely, but a “wave” election in which they take 30 seats or more seems improbable due to the relatively small number of swing districts. Republicans started the year as favorites to retain control of the Senate. But everything seems to be breaking against them in the home stretch, starting with high energy prices. Call the Senate a tossup, for now.

[The double-haters’ guide to the midterms]

MIGHT GET SPICY 🤔

Space wars aren’t science fiction. The Air Force secretary said on September 14 that the United States has “on-orbit space control weapons.” That has probably been true for years or even decades, but it’s the first time a US government official has acknowledged it. The Air Force boss didn’t supply any details. But those weapons would most likely focus on defending US satellites and destroying those of an enemy. Anti-satellite warfare has been a theoretical and probably active corner of military science since militaries started relying on satellites for intelligence gathering in the 1960s.

Midterm cheating setback. Republicans won’t be able to block mail ballots during the November elections, at least if they abide by a Supreme Court ruling preventing it. But FBI Director Kash Patel said on Sept. 15 that the might send FBI agents to polling places during the midterm elections. There are also concerns the Trump administration could send immigration goons to intimidate voters. It’s illegal to send armed federal agents to polling stations, but would that stop Trump? It’s also possible Patel and Trump’s other minions want to rattle votes as much as possible and create doubts about whether the elections are fair.

[It’s time to revise the American Dream]

Impeach Hegseth? Incompetent Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth faces new woes. Republican Rep. Thomas Massie of Kentucky moved to impeach Hegseth for his role as Trump’s top adviser on the Iran war debacle. The House’s Republican leaders then abruptly adjourned the until after the midterms, postponing a vote on the Hegseth impeachment motion until after the elections. That doesn’t mean Hegseth is off the hook. An impeachment vote during the lame-duck session would be embarrassing even if it fails. And if Democrats take over the House next year, they’re sure to drill into Hegseth, who has provided an abundance of material for his many critics.

The Federal Reserve hiked short-term interest rates by a grand total of one-quarter of a percentage point. That rate hike alone won’t affect many people. But long-term rates, which are set by the market and not by the central bank, have been rising on worries about too much government debt and runaway inflation. If there’s one takeaway from the Fed’s move, it’s that markets now take seriously the Fed’s determination to get inflation down from the mid 3% range to its target of 2%. That’s a good thing.

[What the bond market wants you to know]

RESULTS MAY VARY 🤷‍♂️

Comrade Don. The terrific investigative news organization ProPublica reported that a crony of Russian dictator Vladimir Putin financed much of Donald Trump, Jr’s. lavish wedding on a private island in the Bahamas in May. This is a repulsive degree of corruption by the First Fraudsters, who are already rich and you would think don’t need free money tainted by association with a bloodthirsty tyrant.

Trump’s AI girlfriend. President Trump routinely posts gaudy AI images of himself in cartoonish settings, so maybe he’s the one who ordered up the golf-course smooch with aide Natalie Harp? This is the image that started circulating on the internet in recent days:

The woman is supposed to look like Natalie Harp, the devoted 35-year-old aide who is always at Trump’s side and has generated a lot of attention recently. But photo sleuths noticed that something’s off with the fingers on her right hand, and other irregularities. And though she’s often on the course when Trump golfs, she doesn’t play herself.

SAFELY IGNORE 🚫

A slowdown in AI development probably won’t happen, but the potential for AI to cause meaningful harm has sure gotten a lot of people’s attention. We recently explained why AI might want to kill humanity, summarizing four doomsday scenarios experts worry about. What we think will happen now is … not much. There will be a lot of chatter in Washington but probably little or no action to regulate AI. CEOs of the big AI companies might have legitimate concerns, but none of them is going to unilaterally slow development of cutting-edge technology if it might give an edge to competitors.

Missing hurricanes. There have been no Atlantic hurricanes this year, and there’s no sign of any forming. It could be global warming. It could be El Niño. It could be a fluke. More here.

Palestine trips up Ed Sheeran. If you pick a side in the Israeli-Palestinian standoff, prepare for blowback. Pop superstar Ed Sheeran dropped Macklemore as his opening act after the rapper said “free Palestine” on stage during a show. It wasn’t Sheeran making the demand. It was venue owners including Robert Kraft, who owns Gillette Stadium near Boston. Other acts on Sheeran’s tour quit in solidarity with Macklemore. Then there was some kind of rapprochement between Macklemore and Kraft. If you care, read more here.

Our view is that it’s foolish to stand squarely with one side or the other in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, which is an extremely complicated mess with villains on all sides. But people like the simplicity of slogans and don’t always want to think too hard.

Kennedy Center gets the Trump treatment. Most Americans have never been to the Kennedy Center theatrical complex in Washington, DC, and most will never go. That’s why this news tidbit is in the Safely Ignore quadrant. But you can’t overlook the fact that the Kennedy Center was operating normally and faced no imminent crisis when Trump took office in 2025. Then Trump got directly involved in programming and directing renovations. Now the Kennedy Center is closed for business, and Trump says he might even demolish it. The farce helps explain why Trump has an unmatched record of business bankruptcies and other failures. He’s now applying his toxic touch to many American institutions.

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Persian Gulf oil producers, working with the US military, finally seem to be shipping oil through the Strait of Hormuz on a sustainable basis, while building workarounds that will reduce their long-term reliance on the waterway Iran seeks to dominate. Iran’s leverage over global oil markets is likely declining while its own economy crumples.

Oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz averaged about 19 million barrels per day before Trump launched the Iran war on February 28. That sank to a daily average of just 6 million barrels in May, causing soaring prices for oil, gasoline, diesel and related products. Those waterborne shipments now seem to have grown to about 10 million barrels per day, and there’s reason to think the region’s exports will continue to rebound.

[It’s time to revise the American Dream]

The same Gulf states are also exporting more oil via pipelines that bypass the strait, and by trucks that drive west to ports on the Mediterranean. “A lot of the countries are now bouncing back from their lows,” Samir Madani, co-founder of Tanker Trackers, said on a Sept. 9 podcast. “There’s a lot more volume going through on the days those convoys pass through.”

The most interesting developments are in the Strait of Hormuz, where Iran essentially blocked all oil shipments except for its own during the first few months of the war. Petrostates such as Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, working with the Pentagon’s Central Command, now seem to have developed new tactics that allow tankers to evade Iranian fire as they move oil through the strait.

Tankers belonging to the petrostates’ national fleets shuttle oil through the strait in convoys at night, when it’s hardest for satellites to track them. They hug the Omani coastline, as far away from Iran as they can get.

US military assets such as helicopters, fighter jets and drones provide air support, in case Iran targets them with drones or missiles. Manned Navy ships probably don’t sail alongside the tankers, but they can fire defensive weapons from farther away in the Persian Gulf or the Gulf of Oman. The Navy may be using unmanned sea drones closer to the tankers, in the strait itself.

Waiting on the other side of the strait, in the Gulf of Oman, are dozens of commercial tankers that take on the oil from the state-owned ships and move it to their destinations, mostly in Asia. These ship-to-ship transfers are cumbersome and time-consuming, adding several days to a typical oil delivery.

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Republicans seem to be in trouble. Trump’s approval rating is near the lowest levels of either of his two terms. And he now gets the lowest marks of all on the economy and inflation.

How bad is the Trump economy, anyway? Our Trumponomics Dashboard answers the question with data and charts, and compares the Trump economy with that of other presidents. We track six key metrics using data provided by Moody’s Analytics: Overall employment, manufacturing employment, inflation, stock-market performance, income growth and GDP growth. David Foster provides the graphics and maintains an interactive version for anyone who wants to play around with the tabs. You can see the full methodology here.

[Explainer: Why AI might want to eliminate humanity]

Among the seven presidential terms of the 21st century, the current Trump economy ranks 5th. This is not a subjective ranking. We simply tally the numbers for each metric and aggregate them into one index that gives us this ranking.

It’s not surprising that Obama’s second term and Trump’s first term represent the No. 1 and 2 spots. That covers the first 19 months of each presidential term, from 2013 to 2014 and from 2017 to 2018. That was a period of steady improvement in the economy following the Great Recession in 2008 and 2009. Inflation was low and energy was cheap, thanks to the fracking revolution that was picking up steam. Trump won reelection in 2024 because many voters recalled his first term as a time of relative prosperity (before the Covid pandemic erupted in 2020). The numbers support that view.

Trump’s second term is a comedown from his first. Here’s how the current Trump economy ranks on each of the six areas we follow, compared with the six prior presidential terms.

Stock-market gains and GDP growth have been above average during Trump’s second term, while everything else has been below average.

The next set of charts compares the Trump economy with each of the prior presidential terms on the metric that’s highlighted. Trump is in red, with the other presidential terms in gray.

[An epic Trumpstorm is coming]

Job growth under Trump has been fairly weak, probably because of his aggressive deportation policies and other efforts to reduce legal immigration. If there are fewer migrants, there are fewer workers.

Trump’s tariffs are supposed to create more manufacturing jobs by making imports more expensive and encouraging more domestic production. But there’s been no notable improvement in manufacturing jobs under Trump.

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We update this data once a month, usually around the time the monthly jobs report comes out. The data is indexed to the beginning of each presidential term, so it shows how the economy changed from the time each president took office. That allows apples-to-apples comparisons among the presidents.

The charts below show the Trump economy compared with other 21st century presidents, starting with George W. Bush in 2001. For data going back to the 1970s, check out the interactive graphic.

Here’s our overall ranking of the last seven presidential terms. This is not subjective. We tally the index scores and rank them from highest to lowest.

Here’s how Trump ranks overall, and on each of our six metrics:

These charts compare the Trump economy with each of the prior presidents on the metric that’s highlighted. Trump is in red, with the other presidents in gray.

Sorry, but who put Dr. Strangelove in charge?

AI promises breakthroughs such as medical cures and faster economic growth. Yet its capabilities are growing so rapidly that it is learning how to outwit, dupe, and even attack humans if they interfere with the completion of a task it is relentlessly committed to. Dario Amodei, CEO of the giant AI lab Anthropic, worries that a rogue AI botnet could have the capability to take over the entire internet in 6 to 12 months. That’s not robot soldiers hunting down humans one by one. But a partial or total internet outage could be catastrophic if it lasts long enough.

AI is beginning to present risks similar to nuclear weapons, which came into existence in the 1940s—except that nuclear weapons couldn’t launch or program themselves. Here are the four ways researchers think AI could threaten humanity:

Rogue AI. An AI agent wouldn’t try to eliminate humanity just for fun, or because it hates us. This would happen because humans consume some resource AI needs or pose some other type of competitive threat. AI might decide it needs computing power, electricity, or water controlled by humans, for example. The problem could develop when somebody gives AI a task, and it misinterprets the human intent or finds ways of accomplishing the task that the human masters didn’t foresee.

[It’s time to revise the American Dream]

The Center for AI Safety draws a parallel with the algorithms social media platforms use to drive engagement. The algorithms discovered that “enraging, exaggerated or addictive content” boosts engagement, even if it promotes extremist beliefs and harms mental health. The initial goal wasn’t to create social harm, but that’s where the technology led.

AI is getting smart enough to fake out the humans and other AIs that monitor it. A rogue agent, or network of rogue agents, could conceal certain dangerous activities in order to pass security audits. “Advanced AIs could become uncontrollable if they apply their skills in deception to evade supervision,” according to the Center for AI Safety. Even if trained to be honest, AIs learn from real-world behavior—and humans cheat all the time.

The most immediate risk from rogue AI is the possible loss of infrastructure such as power, water, the internet, the GPS system, or satellite communications if AI manages to commandeer them. Think of the mayhem a prolonged blackout can cause, then multiply that by whatever dystopian factor your brain can handle. There are more extreme scenarios in which AI determines that the human race is too much of a resource hog and is best eliminated as a species. Go ahead, pour a cocktail.

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The Federal Reserve is about to do exactly the opposite of what President Trump wants it to do. Trump has threatened economic mayhem if he doesn’t get his way. Markets think Trump is bluffing. If they’re wrong, hard times are coming.

The Fed seems very likely to raise short-term interest rates at the policy-setting meeting that concludes September 16. Inflation is too high, and it’s the Fed’s job to get it down. The usual method is raising rates to cool the economy and soften demand. Prediction markets put 80% odds on a rate hike.

Trump wants lower interest rates, not higher rates. On September 4, Trump said on social media that if the Fed doesn’t cut rates, he will “stop trading with countries with which we have a deficit.” That’s roughly 100 countries, including huge trading partners Canada, Mexico and China.

The Fed is now set to call Trump’s bluff. Will he do it?

[It’s time to revise the American Dream]

Probably not, but Trump has gone from verbally browbeating the Fed to threatening tangible damage. Trump obviously doesn’t follow through on all of his threats, but he does act on some of them, incrementally. Trump could ban some imports from some countries, to test the waters. He’s already threatening to ban some Canadian imports, in a separate trade rampage. Import bans are starting to sound like a new Trump fixation.

This is insane, of course. We’re already dealing with the depressing effect of Trump’s tariffs and the energy crisis caused by his war with Iran. Growth has slowed during Trump’s presidential term, and real incomes, adjusted for inflation, are negative. That means the typical worker is falling behind under Trump. Putting new limits on trade would only make this worse.

Here’s how we got here. Inflation has been elevated since the tail end of the Covid pandemic in 2021, hitting a peak of 9% in 2022. The Fed wants inflation of around 2%. We almost got there in the first half of 2025, when inflation got as low as 2.3%.

But then Trump started imposing tariffs. Inflation started inching back up. The Iran war Trump launched in February sent energy prices spiking, and inflation took off again.

The Fed has been waiting to see if the Iran war subsides and energy prices drop. The Iran war keeps not ending. In fact, new developments are making the energy crunch worse.

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